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Tom Mulcair, former leader of the New Democratic Party Tom Mulcair, former leader of the New Democratic Party <\/p>\nTom Mulcair, former leader of the New Democratic Party, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the budding geopolitical themes coming out of CUSMA talks. <\/p>\n
The United States has declined to extend CUSMA in its current form, triggering a new round of negotiations over North America\u2019s trade framework. Although the agreement remains in force until 2036, businesses now face renewed uncertainty as Canada, the U.S. and Mexico prepare for what could be a lengthy negotiating process.<\/p>\n
BNN Bloomberg spoke with Tom Mulcair, former leader of the New Democratic Party and CTV News political commentator, about why uncertainty may weigh on business investment, how tariff negotiations could evolve, and the political factors that could shape the outcome of talks.<\/p>\n
Key TakeawaysUncertainty surrounding future trade rules could delay major business investment decisions across North America. Canada is expected to continue pushing for the removal or reduction of tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and softwood lumber during negotiations. Midterm elections in the United States could influence the political environment and negotiating leverage in future CUSMA talks. Donald Trump is expected to use the possibility of withdrawing from CUSMA as a negotiating tactic, even if an actual withdrawal remains unlikely. Any revised agreement is likely to resemble the current CUSMA framework because of the deep economic integration between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.Tom Mulcair, former leader of the New Democratic Party Tom Mulcair, former leader of the New Democratic Party <\/p>\n
Read the full transcript below:<\/p>\n
LINDSAY: The Trump administration has officially declined to extend the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement in its current form, triggering what could be lengthy and challenging negotiations over the future of the North American trade deal. While CUSMA remains in place until 2036, the decision introduces new uncertainty for businesses, investors and policymakers. Joining us now is former leader of the federal NDP and CTV News political commentator Tom Mulcair. It\u2019s great to have you join us.<\/p>\n
TOM: Good to be with you, Lindsay.<\/p>\n
LINDSAY: So, obviously, this was widely expected, this decision, but how significant is it really today, both politically and economically?<\/p>\n
TOM: I think you hit the nail right on the head when you talked about uncertainty because, even though we have a consolation in the fact that the deal continues in force for up to 10 years unless someone gives the six-month notice to withdraw \u2014 and we\u2019ll talk about that at the end \u2014 it is the uncertainty that this creates. Businesses don\u2019t make decisions, especially big ones, on an annual basis; they make them long term. If you\u2019re not sure whether this deal, or another one, is going to be in place, you\u2019re going to hold off. And it\u2019s not just Canadian companies that are going to be affected by that; American companies and, of course, Mexican companies as well. So, that uncertainty in the market, that instability, is characteristic of Donald Trump. He doesn\u2019t care about creating chaos. Chaos is his middle name. He likes this stuff. He had already said, in one sentence, as he left the G7 that he doesn\u2019t care about the CUSMA deal. He wouldn\u2019t mind leaving it on the table and just walking away from it, but then again, he could sign it all in one sentence. So, it\u2019s the type of thing we\u2019ve become used to with Trump, but it doesn\u2019t make it any easier in a business environment.<\/p>\n
LINDSAY: Yeah, and obviously Canada has repeatedly said its priority is eliminating tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and softwood lumber, those sectors that have been hit so hard over the last year. I\u2019ve heard some people say that we might just have to get used to having tariffs on those sectors. How realistic is it for Canada to be able to ease some of the strain on those areas?<\/p>\n
TOM: I think that, long term, we\u2019re going to see a lot of those lifted, or at least attenuated, because we have been, frankly, holding our fire. Donald Trump\u2019s main recrimination from Day 1 was, \u201cOh my gosh, I looked at the numbers. There\u2019s a trade deficit for the United States with Canada. We should have a trade surplus.\u201d Well, guess what? That trade deficit was because we practically give him, certainly below market value, $100 billion of oil per year, and all of the refining and the value-added jobs are in the States, not in Canada. So, it would be very easy for Mark Carney to say, \u201cYou want to solve that issue, that trade deficit? We can solve it overnight.\u201d But there is no reason to go down that road. That would be the Trumpian approach. Everything is a negotiation. Everything is a tit for tat. We\u2019re trying to get a deal that makes sense for Canada, and Carney is right. No deal is certainly better than a bad deal. Trump would try to negotiate his way toward a bad deal for us. He has already threatened to really hurt the Canadian economy, as has Howard Lutnick, especially with the auto sector. So, we\u2019re dealing with something unpredictable. We could have never guessed that Trump would go so far as to openly talk about absorbing Canada as the 51st state and intentionally harming our economy, but that\u2019s what he\u2019s been doing.<\/p>\n
The information today that was just discussed on BNN Bloomberg about the United States economy, the softness of the job sector and the economy itself, is an indication that everybody loses. This is what Ronald Reagan said in the famous video that was played by Doug Ford in the U.S. during the baseball playoffs. Everybody loses when you play this tariff game long term. Trump saw the tariffs as a gentle rain from heaven pouring billions into the U.S. Treasury, but it\u2019s not foreign countries paying those tariffs; it\u2019s American consumers. That is finally starting to hit home. The American economy is being hit hard by those tariffs, by Trump\u2019s approach. Even though it\u2019s taken a while, I think the average American has come to understand it and might push back a little bit on Trump and make him open his eyes to the fact that open markets, especially in North America, have been a good thing for the U.S. and, of course, for its primary partners, Canada and Mexico.<\/p>\n
LINDSAY: And I wonder, too, as you say, if U.S. voters start to notice this, the impact on the U.S. economy, particularly with the midterm elections coming up, could that be something that might help Canada when it comes to negotiations, maybe a bit of leverage there?<\/p>\n
TOM: That\u2019s the hinge. That\u2019s the turning point, the midterms. Everybody\u2019s got their own guess as to how they\u2019re going to turn out, and the situation could change radically, for example, with Iran. But if things stay on an even keel, we can expect to see Trump really get hammered in the midterms, probably lose both majorities, and that would, of course, change the political landscape completely. Once we get past those, we\u2019re into the home stretch of Trump\u2019s four-year mandate as soon as we start 2027. So, I think that\u2019s the reasoning behind this.<\/p>\n
Carney is deeply experienced. He\u2019s dealt with bullies before. He\u2019s dealt with blowhards before. I just mentioned Howard Lutnick. He and Trump are just New York loudmouths, always trying to push their way through, trying to bully their way through. Reality catches up, even with bullies. At some point, the average Canadian has already realized we\u2019re going to get a deal eventually. The Americans are not walking away from CUSMA. There\u2019s too much interest in it for them. They\u2019re not walking away from Canadian resources, whether it\u2019s oil or potash that goes into every acre of every farm in the United States to produce the food Americans eat. These are things Canada has that America needs, even if Donald Trump says he doesn\u2019t need anything that we have.<\/p>\n
LINDSAY: Which he continuously seems to be saying. I did want to touch on something you mentioned at the beginning, which is the six-month notice to withdraw. Do you think that any party here will be exercising that, particularly the United States? Because, as you say, the U.S. is not going to walk away from Canada.<\/p>\n
TOM: I think that will be a play by Donald Trump as this thing goes on for a few months. He\u2019ll use that threat. It\u2019ll be an idle threat. It\u2019ll be an empty threat, but it\u2019s something that we\u2019re going to have to take seriously because, if he ever did do it, of course it would hurt the Americans as much as us because, as we just explained, they\u2019ve been winners under CUSMA, as everybody else has.<\/p>\n
But if he does actually withdraw, so people understand, the current deal continues for 10 years. It has to be reviewed annually, but it continues. It\u2019s the same deal. Any of the three parties can simply give six months\u2019 notice to the other parties, and then they\u2019re out of the deal. So, I\u2019m absolutely expecting Trump to try to play that card at some point along the way to try to put pressure on everyone. For him, everything\u2019s a negotiation. Everything is bartering. Everything is trying to gain an advantage over the people you\u2019re discussing things with. So, sure, \u201cThe Art of the Deal,\u201d per Trump, will probably involve that six months\u2019 notice. But again, it\u2019ll be chaotic for the markets, for businesses. Trump\u2019s middle name is chaos. He\u2019s going to try to convince everybody that he\u2019s been a big successful winner, no matter what the result is, even if it\u2019s the same deal.<\/p>\n
Lindsay, Trump said CUSMA was the best deal ever. He\u2019s the one who signed it. Now he\u2019s saying it\u2019s a lousy deal. He brought in CUSMA because he said that NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, the precursor, was the worst deal ever in history. If you look at NAFTA and you look at CUSMA, guess what? They\u2019re very, very similar, and in many respects identical. So, this is the pure Trump game. He wants to be able to boast that he got something out of it. We\u2019ll see whether that actually comes to pass.<\/p>\n
LINDSAY: And just lastly, I know you\u2019re not an analyst or an adviser, but what do you think Canadian businesses and investors should be watching for in the coming months, just in the last 30 seconds or so?<\/p>\n
TOM: Well, the first part is what we looked at at the beginning. I think that a lot of those businesses are going to hold big decisions. They\u2019re just going to put themselves in a holding pattern, and they\u2019re going to say, \u201cWe\u2019re not going to make that massive investment south of the border, or going the other way, because there\u2019s too much uncertainty.\u201d So, I think that\u2019s one of the things that we\u2019re are going to be seeing the most, a waiting period as people try to decide whether there\u2019s going to be a new deal.<\/p>\n
I actually do believe that cooler heads will prevail, that there will be a good deal that will resemble a heck of a lot of CUSMA, which resembled a heck of a lot of NAFTA. But Trump, of course, has never been satisfied with anything that anybody else did. He gets to criticize that and says that he\u2019s going to come up with something much better. We\u2019ll see. We will see, indeed.<\/p>\n
LINDSAY: Okay, we\u2019ll have to leave it there. Former leader of the federal NDP and CTV News political commentator Tom Mulcair joining us live. Tom, thanks so much. Appreciate your time.<\/p>\n
TOM: All the best, Lindsay.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the July 2, 2026 interview with Tom Mulcair are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tom Mulcair, former leader of the New Democratic Party, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the budding geopolitical themes…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":776126,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[49,48,44],"class_list":["post-776125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/776125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=776125"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/776125\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/776126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=776125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=776125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=776125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}