In today’s Ramblings, we’ll review each team’s top scoring defenseman from last season and predict whether that blueliner will score more than last year, less than last year, or at a similar rate. My range for similar rate is roughly three points above or below last season’s output. Let’s get right into it!<\/p>\n
Anaheim Ducks \u2013 Jackson LaCombe<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 43 points in 75 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n LaCombe dazzled last year after taking over PP1 duties in mid-December. A full season with the top group should help him build on his strong showing as a sophomore. Anaheim was awful with the man advantage last year and seems set to improve under the guidance of new assistant coach Jay Woodcroft, hopefully boosting LaCombe’s overall output.<\/p>\n Boston Bruins \u2013 Mason Lohrei<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 33 points in 77 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n Had he not missed so much time with injury, this spot probably would have gone to Charlie McAvoy<\/a> who posted 23 points in 50 appearances last year. Lohrei saw a greater role while McAvoy was sidelined and ended up with a respectable 16 PPPs last season. The offensive talent is clearly there with Lohrei, but he needs improve his defensive game to be trusted with more opportunity. While he’ll face more competition for minutes now that the Bruins’ blueline is healthy, I think the young blueliner’s offensive skill will shine through and enable him to build on last year’s 33 points.<\/p>\n Buffalo Sabres \u2013 Rasmus Dahlin<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 68 points in 73 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Dahlin is an elite blueliner whose offensive ceiling can only be limited by the team around him. I expect him to flirt with the 70-point mark for the third time in four seasons. Let’s just hope Buffalo can rediscover some of their 22-23 magic with the man advantage.<\/p>\n Calgary Flames \u2013 MacKenzie Weegar<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 47 points in 81 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Weegar started seeing proper power-play opportunity two years ago. Since then, he has a 52-point and 47-point season under his belt. Now if highly touted Zayne Parekh<\/a> comes in and steals power play time away from Weegar, this prediction is going to age like milk. However, I’m being conservative in my projections for Parekh and anticipating he needs some more time to develop, leaving Weegar with prominent PP duties this year, and allowing the veteran blueliner to flirt with 50 points again.<\/p>\n Carolina Hurricanes \u2013 Shayne Gostisbehere<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 45 points in 70 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n 23-year-old Alexander Nikishkin<\/a> may be a greater threat to Ghost’s spot on PP1 than 39-year-old Brent Burns<\/a> was last year, but I imagine Ghost still comes out on top. \u00a0Carolina’s top PP unit may experience growing pains as Nikolaj Ehlers<\/a> gets settled in, but the team went through significant personnel changes last year and Gostisbehere still got his PP points.<\/p>\n Chicago Blackhawks \u2013 Alex Vlasic<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 30 points in 82 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Vlasic benefitted from an expanded power-play role while Seth Jones<\/a> was injured last year, and that fuelled his most productive stretch of the season. Unfortunately, it was youngster Sam Rinzel<\/a> manning PP1 to close out the campaign, so it doesn’t seem like Vlasic will be able to apply his short stretch of PP success to a greater sample this year. Without fulltime PP1 duties, I’m expecting Vlasic to flirt with the 30-point once mark again. \u00a0<\/p>\n Colorado Avalanche \u2013 Cale Makar<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 92 points in 80 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Elite blueliner with excellent supporting cast. 90-point pace in each of the last four years. Expect more of the same, no other notes.<\/p>\n Columbus Blue Jackets \u2013 Zach Werenski<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 82 points in 81 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Decrease<\/p>\n Looking at the underlying numbers from Werenski’s career-best campaign last year, shooting percentages don’t scream regression. My prediction for less production doesn’t have to do with Werenski’s talent as he’s shown himself to be one of the league’s top blueliners. However, prior to last season, he had gone five-straight years playing 70 games or fewer. I’m pencilling him in to miss a few games, resulting in less output than last year.<\/p>\n Dallas Stars \u2013 Thomas Harley<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 50 points in 78 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n Miro Heiskanen<\/a> had been quarterbacking Dallas’ top power-play in recent years, but Harley thrived on PP1 last season once Heiskanen got injured. Although the power play was better once Harley took over, it had also been very good in previous years while Heiskanen was at the helm, so it’s too early to say Harley has usurped Heiskanen. Still, I feel like Harley’s skillset skews towards offense slightly more than Miro, who is the better defensive player. As such, it might make more sense to use Harley on PP1 when both are healthy, and that gamble is why I’m expecting more offense from Harley this year.<\/p>\n Detroit Red Wings \u2013 Mortiz Seider<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 46 points in 82 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Detroit’s power play was good with Seider at the helm last year, so it makes sense for him to maintain that role this season, which should help him produce at a similar rate. Seider faces tough matchups because he’s so good defensively. He may not be able to produce at the same level as others on this list because he doesn’t see the same level of offensive deployment. \u00a0<\/p>\n Edmonton Oilers \u2013 Evan Bouchard<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-25: 67 points in 82 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n High-end offensive blueliner with access to two of the game’s best forwards. I think there’s room for more power-play production than we saw last year, which should help him jump back above the 75-point mark.<\/p>\n Florida Panthers \u2013 Aaron Ekblad<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 33 points in 56 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n Ekblad’s overall output last year was hindered by a 20-game suspension for violating the league’s performance enhancing substance program, which hopefully won’t be an issue this year. I think he’ll be able to surpass the 33-point mark this year thanks to more games played, but his point pace might take a hit since he’ll now be behind Seth Jones<\/a> in line for Florida’s offensive minutes. Still, Florida used both Jones and Ekblad on PP1 later in the postseason last year, so there’s potential for Ekblad to continue seeing prominent power-play time, helping him produce at a respectable rate.\u00a0<\/p>\n Los Angeles Kings \u2013 Brandt Clarke<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n 2024-2025: 33 points in 78 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n The 22-year-old blueliner is still developing and working towards his lofty offensive potential. I think he gives LA’s top power-play unit a more dynamic look than 35-year-old Drew Doughty<\/a>, so he should land the PP1 gig unless the Kings opt for a five-forward configuration. PP time aside, there’s plenty of room for Clarke’s role and production to increase as he averaged just 16:17 a night last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n Minnesota Wild \u2013 Jared Spurgeon<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n 2024-2025: 32 points in 66 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Decrease<\/p>\n The 35-year-old blueliner has missed significant time due to injury in recent years. A combination of age and health put his availability in question this season. Add in the fact that Zeev Buium<\/a> is likely to surpass him in line for offensive minutes, and you get a disappointing recipe for Spurgeon this year.<\/p>\n Montreal Canadiens \u2013 Lane Hutson<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n 2024-2025: 66 points in 82 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n Will NHL teams be better equipped to defend Hutson now that they’ve seen him in the NHL for a year? Maybe. Will that result in the dreaded sophomore slump? Potentially. However, do I think either of those things will happen? No. Hutson is a shifty offensive player who can adapt to any situation to make the right offensive play, and that ability should help him produce again this season. A full year on PP1 and an improved supporting cast in Montreal have me optimistic that he can cross the 70-point threshold.\u00a0<\/p>\n Nashville Predators \u2013 Roman Josi<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n 2024-2025: 38 points in 53 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n Health is a concern for Josi, who was diagnosed with Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome last year, which can bring symptoms like headache and fatigue. Fortunately, treatment has been effective so far and there’s hope he’ll be 100% this year, helping him bounce back from last year’s underwhelming output.\u00a0<\/p>\n New Jersey Devils \u2013 Luke Hughes<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 44 points in 71 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase\u00a0<\/p>\n Sometimes we forget that Luke Hughes<\/a> is just 21 years old. He’s still learning, developing and constantly getting better. It’s still hard to say whether it’ll be Hughes or Dougie Hamilton<\/a> manning the Devils’ top power play this year, but my money’s on Hughes finishing the year on PP1. I think his individual talent shines through to let him reach the 50-point mark for the first time in his career.\u00a0<\/p>\n New York Islanders \u2013 Noah Dobson<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n 2024-2025: 39 points in 71 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n I think Dobson’s offensive game will have more room to flourish in Montreal’s system as the Islanders didn’t really have a dynamic team attack. He’ll sit behind Lane Hutson<\/a> in line for PP minutes, and while that might limit his overall output, Dobson managed to be a 50-point player with only modest PP production in New York. In an environment that’s a better fit for his skillset, I expect Dobson to improve on last year’s 39 points.<\/p>\n New York Rangers \u2013 Adam Fox<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 61 points in 74 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n An elite blueliner with a strong supporting cast, Fox fell victim to a surprisingly bad Rangers’ power play last year. I’m expecting the team to bounce back on the man advantage, helping Fox to post a 75-point pace or better this season.<\/p>\n Ottawa Senators \u2013 Jake Sanderson<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 57 points in 80 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n After flirting with a 40-point pace in years one and two, Sanderson broke out with nearly 60 points last year. His talent was undeniable from the moment he entered the league, and I think he’ll be a safe bet for 60 points going forward. There’s room for even more offense as his 5on5 shooting percentage was surprisingly low last year, as was his offensive zone start percentage.\u00a0<\/p>\n Philadelphia Flyers \u2013 Travis Sanheim<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 30 points in 82 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n Sanheim hasn’t been given much power-play opportunity in his career but that could change with a new coaching staff. He displayed some solid offensive potential with 44 points during the 2023-24 campaign. Only five of those points came with the man advantage, illustrating his ability to produce at even strength. Although the Flyers have several young blueliners vying for scoring minutes, Sanheim is the most well rounded, making it easy for coaches to trust him in any situation.<\/p>\n Pittsburgh Penguins \u2013 Erik Karlsson<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 53 points in 82 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Fresh off a hundred-point season in San Jose, expectations were sky high when Karlsson signed with Pittsburgh as he’d be skating beside star forwards Sidney Crosby<\/a> and Evgeni Malkin<\/a>. Two years into his tenure with the Penguins, two seasons around a 55-point pace. I don’t see any reason why that should change significantly this year.<\/p>\n San Jose Sharks \u2013 Jake Walman<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 40 points in 65 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Walman fared well as San Jose’s top offensive option, racking up 32 points in 50 games (0.64p\/g). He continued producing after he was traded to Edmonton, posting eight points in 15 games even though he wasn’t seeing top unit power-play time anymore. I imagine he’ll flirt with a 40-point total this year but expect a worse point-per-game rate than last year. His role with the Oilers isn’t as conducive to offense as his role with the Sharks, even though he has access to more offensive star power.<\/p>\n Seattle Kraken \u2013 Brandon Montour<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 41 points in 81 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Although Montour has a 73-point season under his belt, that came on a stacked Panthers’ roster where he saw 74% of the team’s total PP time and racked up 33 PPPs. Those numbers aren’t realistic now that he’s a secondary option behind Vince Dunn<\/a>, on a Seattle team with much less offensive firepower. Outside of that 73-point season, 40 points has been a comfortable mark for Montour, and I think that will be the case again this year.<\/p>\n St. Louis Blues \u2013 Cam Fowler<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 40 points in 68 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Between the Ducks and Blues, Fowler posted a 48-point pace last year. That makes three times in the last four years that he’s scored around that rate, setting the stage for more of the same this year.<\/p>\n Tampa Bay Lightning \u2013 Victor Hedman<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 66 points in 79 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Looking at Hedman’s point pace in the last eight years, he’s been in the high 60s for five of them. There haven’t been any significant changes to Tampa’s roster since last season, or outliers in Hedman’s underlying stats, so I’m expecting another year of flirting with a 70-point pace.<\/p>\n Toronto Maple Leafs \u2013 Morgan Rielly<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 41 points in 82 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Increase<\/p>\n Last season’s output was Rielly’s worst pace of the last eight years. I think Mitch Marner<\/a>‘s departure opens a path back to PP1 for Rielly, which should help him bounce back offensively.<\/p>\n Utah Mammoth \u2013 Mikhail Sergachev<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 53 points in 77 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n In his first year with the Mammoth, Sergachev held a 71% share of Utah’s power-play time and racked up 23 PPPs. He remains the team’s top blueliner this year, and I imagine similar deployment will lead to similar production as nothing stands out about his underlying numbers from last season.<\/p>\n Vancouver Canucks \u2013 Quinn Hughes<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 76 points in 68 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Vancouver’s captain has posted back-to-back 92-point pace seasons and would have challenged Makar for the blueliner scoring race last year had it not been for an injury. The Canucks’ roster leaves a lot to be desired, but game-breaking players find a way to produce, and Quinn Hughes<\/a> is a game-breaking player.<\/p>\n Vegas Golden Knights \u2013 Shea Theodore<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 57 points in 67 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Missed time is a concern with Theodore, who has played less than 70 games in each of the past three years. He’s posted back-to-back 70-point pace seasons, so I’m expecting him to finish with a similar pace this year.<\/p>\n Washington Capitals \u2013 John Carlson<\/a><\/p>\n 2024-2025: 51 points in 79 games<\/p>\n Output Prediction: Similar<\/p>\n Back-to-back seasons around the 50-point mark should set expectations for Carlson in the upcoming campaign. He wasn’t a major factor on the PP last year as he tallied a modest 14 PPPs and posted a point on just 38% of the PP goals scored while he was on the ice, so there’s room for improvement in that area. Still, Carlson will turn 36 this season and faces strong internal competition from Jakob Chychrun<\/a>. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n