\u201cThis is the second consecutive year where we have reduced both our near-term and long-term passenger EV adoption outlook,\u201d researchers wrote in the company\u2019s 2026 Electric Vehicle Outlook, published in June. \u201cFull withdrawal of federal regulatory support for electrification in the U.S. is the biggest factor.\u201d<\/p>\n
Photo by: InsideEVs<\/p>\n In 2024, BloombergNEF projected that, by 2030, 47.5% of cars sold in the U.S.\u2014nearly half\u2014would be either fully electric or plug-in hybrid. It slashed that forecast in 2025 and again this year. Now it expects that around 17% of U.S. car sales will have a plug by the end of the decade.\u00a0<\/p>\n What\u2019s more, BNEF expects the U.S. EV market to shift into reverse in the short term, with the plug-in share of sales landing at 8.4% and 9% in 2026 and 2027. Only in 2028 will the market catch back up to where it was last year, the company says.\u00a0<\/p>\n Much of the gloomier outlook has to do with regulation, or the lack thereof. In the U.S., much EV growth has been driven by government policies, and many of those have been fully vaporized or severely hobbled over the last year and change. Last year, Congress gutted existing fuel economy rules and sunsetted the $7,500 EV tax credit<\/a> several years early.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThen early this year they put out the proposal for the new fuel economy rule,\u201d said Huiling Zhou, an electric vehicles analyst at BNEF. \u201cEssentially, under that new fuel economy rule, very little electrification is required.\u201d<\/p>\n Another big driver of this year\u2019s downgrade, Zhou said, had to do with a climate policy known as the California waiver. Last year, the Senate ripped up the state\u2019s ability to set its own emissions rules that are stricter than the EPA\u2019s. One such rule would have required auto companies to ratchet up their plug-in sales until they hit 100% of the market in 2035. Now that\u2019s off the books, though California\u2014plus many of the other states that adopted the state\u2019s playbook\u2014are challenging the decision in court.\u00a0<\/p>\n Unburdened by regulations and seeing lower EV demand without the tax credit, car companies are backtracking. And that\u2019s hurting the outlook too, Zhou said.<\/p>\n Manufacturers have yanked a slew of electric models from the market, including the Volkswagen ID.4, Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 6, Volvo EX30, and Ford F-150 Lightning<\/a>. Stellantis pulled all of its plug-in hybrids, like electrified versions of the Jeep Wrangler and Chrysler Pacifica minivan. Honda\u2019s \u201c0-Series\u201d sedan and SUV<\/a> are some of many planned EVs that have been delayed or scrapped entirely.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cDefinitely those major model cancellations affect the overall picture,\u201d Zhou said. \u201cThe near term forecast is still largely depending on the available models.\u201d<\/p>\n Each cancellation takes with it some potential sales. And although a large number of new and impressive EVs are launching soon\u2014from the BMW iX5<\/a> to the Jeep Wagoneer extended-range EV to the Slate pickup<\/a>\u2014the net effect is a drop in sales over time, Zhou said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Over the longer term, more competitive EV prices and lower total cost of ownership will help drive plug-in car sales higher in America, BNEF says. But for now, price is a sore spot too. Electric cars are about 25% more expensive in the U.S. than internal-combustion ones, Zhou said, the highest differential among the regions BNEF studied. High battery prices and R&D costs are big contributors, but there\u2019s another culprit that gets talked about less.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThere’s barely any competition, or very little competition in the U.S. right now,\u201d she said. \u201cIf you look at markets like China, very intense competition is driving prices down.\u201d<\/p>\n Zoom out beyond the U.S., and it\u2019s clear that America is increasingly a laggard on the global stage. BNEF projects that plug-in car sales will hit 23 million this year, making up over 27% of cars sold worldwide.\u00a0The share of EVs globally hits 38% in 2030 in BNEF’s forecast. And while China, the UK, Germany, Australia, France, and South Korea are all on pace to exceed the global average by then too, the U.S. will be stuck at less than half that if things don’t change.<\/p>\n Contact the author: Tim.Levin@InsideEVs.com<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \n \t\tWe want your opinion!\n\t<\/p>\n What would you like to see on Insideevs.com?<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/hszhl-bloombergnef-slashed-its-outlook-for-us-ev-sales-again.png\")
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