SAN FRANCISCO \u2014 San Francisco Giants amateur scouting director Michael Holmes and his staff are confident the organization will select an impact player with the fourth pick in the MLB Draft on Saturday.<\/p>\n
If any of the three players whom most mock drafts project to go at the top are still available with the fourth pick, it\u2019s hard to imagine the Giants would let UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson or Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey slide any further. And if all three are off the board? Plenty of talented options remain.<\/p>\n
The Giants could select Miami-area high school shortstop Jacob Lombard. Or Mississippi high school outfielder Eric Booth Jr. Or Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress. When Baseball America released its final mock draft Wednesday, the publication flipped its projection for the No. 4 pick from Lombard to Booth Jr.<\/p>\n
Then there\u2019s the consensus top pitcher in this class, UC Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora, who would appear to be a fit in so many respects. Flora stands an imposing 6 feet 5 and has all the equipment to pitch at the front of a rotation. He\u2019s a college junior who could move quickly through the minor leagues. He\u2019s also a Bay Area native who starred at Foothill High in Pleasanton, Calif. \u2014 the same high school that produced former Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford.<\/p>\n
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And if you haven\u2019t noticed, the Giants are in dire need of pitching at the major-league level. They\u2019re also tilted heavily toward position players in an otherwise improving farm system.<\/p>\n
Given the context, it might be difficult to imagine how the Giants could take anyone other than Flora.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not how the draft works, though.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt some point, we know we want to get some pitching, especially some starting pitching, and there may come a point in the draft where that becomes a little focused,\u201d Holmes said in a dugout interview before Wednesday\u2019s 10-0 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays at Oracle Park. \u201cI just think up higher, we have to continue to think about taking the best available (player).\u201d<\/p>\n
Isn\u2019t that what every amateur scouting director says this time of year?<\/p>\n
\u201cYeah,\u201d Holmes said with a chuckle. \u201cAnd you\u2019re going to keep hearing it.\u201d<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a reason for that. With rare exceptions, the MLB Draft is not a plug-and-play exercise. No draft pick is guaranteed to reach the major leagues. Many top picks end up benefiting their first organization as a trade chip who brings back talent in another form. Drafting for need over value is asking for trouble.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s the truth: Drafting for need isn\u2019t Holmes\u2019 job. It shouldn\u2019t fall on him and his staff to provide an immediate remedy for a pitching deficit that has exposed three layers of organizational failure.<\/p>\n
The Giants get an F for overestimating the strength of the pitching within their system to begin the season. They get an F for being unable to develop those arms under their third wave of pitching coaches in four years. And in retrospect, those twin shortcomings make it even more galling that ownership gets an F for not providing the resources that would have allowed Buster Posey\u2019s front office to invest more heavily in the free-agent pitching market in the winter.<\/p>\n
A team that did invest? The Blue Jays. They signed right-hander Dylan Cease<\/a> to a seven-year, $210 million contract. They signed former Giants reliever Tyler Rogers<\/a> to a three-year, $37 million deal. Cease has a 2.56 ERA in 17 starts and leads the American League in strikeouts. Rogers has a 1.73 ERA and hasn\u2019t allowed a home run in his 43 appearances. Either of those pitchers could have made a major impact on a Giants staff that ranks No. 27 out of 30 clubs with minus-4.8 Wins Above Average<\/a>.<\/p>\n To that point, while capturing a road series Wednesday, the Blue Jays fluttered out of town on a dovetail. Cease came within three outs of becoming the first pitcher to no-hit the Giants in the 27-year history of their waterfront ballpark at 24 Willie Mays Plaza.<\/p>\n Heliot Ramos broke up the bid with a clean single to center field to lead off the ninth, which saved the Giants from getting no-hit in San Francisco for the first time since June 10, 1997, when Florida Marlins right-hander Kevin Brown blanked them at Candlestick Park.<\/p>\n There was no saving anything else, though. The Giants fell to 16 games under .500 for the first time since the final day of the 2018 season. They\u2019ve been shut out nine times, trailing only the San Diego Padres (10) for the most in the major leagues.<\/p>\n The game was lost in a five-run first inning that might rank as the unluckiest of Logan Webb\u2019s career. It began with a jam-shot single, then a bloop single, then a one-out walk to George Springer that followed a no-call on a two-strike checked swing. Daulton Varsho followed with a softly hit single that appeared catchable but bounced away from Jung Hoo Lee\u2019s sliding attempt in right field. Then, with the bases loaded, Kazuma Okamoto followed with an opposite-way drive that clanked off the metal facing atop the right-field arcade for a grand slam. According to Statcast, it would\u2019ve been a home run in just two of 30 major-league ballparks.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you could somehow go back in time and remove some of that stuff, everybody got what they showed up for to see those two guys (Webb and Cease) go at it,\u201d Giants manager Tony Vitello said. \u201cThey\u2019re two of the better ones in the league at their craft. I thought today was \u2026 again, it\u2019s hard to say, and I get it, I see the five on there, but it was a good day.\u201d<\/p>\n For Webb, maybe. Not for anyone else in the home dugout. The Giants did not distinguish themselves for the rest of the afternoon. Rafael Devers made two errors at first base, and shortstop Willy Adames committed his 13th of the season while the Blue Jays padded their lead. Struggling reliever Ryan Walker might as well have been a mop-up position player on the mound in the ninth inning when he gave up a pair of home runs, including one to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been allergic to the long ball this season.<\/p>\n There will be times the Giants are unlucky. Too often this season, they\u2019ve been flat-out not good. Especially on the mound.<\/p>\n None of this should enter Holmes\u2019 draft purview, though. It\u2019s his department\u2019s job to infuse the organization with as much drafted and internationally signed talent as possible. You\u2019re only distracting him from those objectives when you expect him to compensate for the missteps of others.<\/p>\n So, if Holmes and his staff determine that a high school shortstop is the best available player, it shouldn\u2019t matter that the Giants drafted another shortstop, Gavin Kilen, in the first round last year. Or that their three top-rated prospects \u2014 Jhonny Level, Josuar Gonzalez and Luis Hern\u00e1ndez \u2014 are playing the position in the low minors.<\/p>\n The Giants were supposed to hold the 15th pick in the 2026 draft after finishing last season 81-81, but the lottery ping-pong balls bounced their way, and they moved all the way up to No. 4. It created a historic opportunity. This will be just the sixth time the organization holds a top-five pick. They\u2019ve taken three franchise-altering players (Will Clark, Matt Williams and Posey) among those six picks.<\/p>\n