{"id":79503,"date":"2025-08-18T20:13:07","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T20:13:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/79503\/"},"modified":"2025-08-18T20:13:07","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T20:13:07","slug":"2025-nfl-longshot-best-bets-three-100-1-or-longer-awards-picks-to-consider-including-a-jets-mvp-at-200-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/79503\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 NFL longshot best bets: Three 100-1 or longer awards picks to consider, including a Jets MVP at 200-1"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prior to last season, I put a few bucks on Sam Darnold<\/a> to win MVP at +20000. Darnold did not win MVP, but he did seem like a darkhorse to win the award for much of the season. The Vikings<\/a> quarterback went into Week 18 with 4,153 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions for a 14-2 Vikings team that was one win away from being the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Now, by that point the MVP race was basically down to Josh Allen<\/a> vs. Lamar Jackson<\/a>, but Darnold played well enough all year to at least get a few points in MVP voting after the season.<\/p>\n

It’s quite a fun ride to hold a longshot ticket that feels like it still has a shot as you get into the back half of the season. I had such a situation one year in MLB<\/a> where I placed a +150000 bet in early August on a player to lead the league in home runs who caught fire and found himself just one homer back in the race with about three weeks to go. Again, it didn’t pay off, but I felt he had a better chance of working his way into the race than the odds suggested, and he at least made it a fun sweat for about a month.<\/p>\n

This article is about finding a few more fun sweats, specifically in NFL<\/a> awards futures. We dove deep into each award at SportsLine recently and provided best bet rankings for each major award, and then we highlighted one interesting play near the top of the rankings for each. We’re going to dive back into that content and share some of my top longshots of +10000 or greater who I think have a better chance of being a factor in those races than the market suggests.<\/p>\n

MVP: Justin Fields +20000 (Caesars)<\/p>\n

Caesars, as of this writing, has Fields with the same odds to win MVP as Kirk Cousins<\/a> and Shedeur Sanders<\/a>, two quarterbacks unlikely to see the field enough to have any shot of being in the discussion. He’s behind 29 other quarterbacks and eight players at other positions at this particular book. Fields doesn’t have a great shot of winning MVP, but I’d argue it’s better than many of the guys in front of him.<\/p>\n

Rather than list all the guys I’d put Fields ahead of in the race, let’s look at why I think he has more upside than people realize. He was a talented player coming into the league, someone who many thought was the second-best QB in his draft class behind Trevor Lawrence<\/a>. He joined an awful situation in Chicago, with the entire coaching staff getting hired after his rookie year and all the players in key spots to develop him (head coach Matt Nagy, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, QB coach John DeFilippo) failing to find lateral roles elsewhere. The team next hired a defensive-minded head coach and made Luke Getsy the offensive coordinator, his first time in the role after coming up with the Packers<\/a> and an established MVP-level QB.<\/p>\n

Fields’ passing numbers weren’t impressive last year for the Steelers<\/a>, but that also wasn’t a great situation in terms of the talent around him and the offense he was asked to run, which isn’t going to produce impressive stats. It’s possible Tanner Engstrand is another Getsy whose success on a great offensive coaching staff doesn’t carry over when he makes the leap to offensive coordinator. But the optimistic side of that coin is also in play, and we just don’t know what the result is going to be. The market has decided there is no upside here, but if Engstrand clicks with Fields, it’s in the realm of possibility he puts up similar stats to Lamar Jackson’s two MVP campaigns, which when averaged together gives you about 3,400 passing yards, 30 passing TDs, 6-7 interceptions, around 1,000 rushing yards and six rushing TDs. If he does that and the Jets<\/a> upset the Bills<\/a> in the AFC East, which they are only around +1800 to win, I’d love having a Fields MVP ticket.<\/p>\n

You can check out my 2025 NFL MVP best bet rankings<\/a> over at SportsLine. Bet on Fields to win MVP at Caesars here<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Woody Marks +10000 (DraftKings)<\/p>\n

When looking for extreme longshots who could come away with an award win, you first and foremost need to worry about opportunity. Marks has the potential to check that box with Joe Mixon<\/a> uncertain for Week 1 after rushing for 1,016 yards and 11 TDs last year (plus another 309 yards and an additional touchdown on 36 receptions). Without a clear timetable on Mixon, there is potential he’s sidelined long enough for his job to be usurped by a surprise breakout from Marks.<\/p>\n

First, the rookie will have to beat out the other players on the depth chart to earn that featured role early in the season, but a path to do just that certainly exists. Nick Chubb<\/a>, who turns 30 this year, may never recapture his elite level of play prior to his ACL injury in 2023. Dameon Pierce’s<\/a> strong per-carry numbers last year were the result of two long TD runs, and if the Texans<\/a> had faith in him as a feature back, they probably wouldn’t have drafted Marks and signed Chubb.<\/p>\n

Marks put together a strong performance in Week 2 of the preseason, even though it came against Panthers<\/a> backups. Keep an eye out for how much work he gets with the first string in the team’s final preseason game<\/a>, because if he keeps impressing, there’s at least a chance he winds up with more work than we expect for a wide-open Texans backfield in Week 1, and if he’s successful on that stage, he quickly becomes a darkhorse in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race.<\/p>\n

Check out my 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year best bet rankings<\/a> at SportsLine.\u00a0Bet on Marks to win OROY at DraftKings here<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Darien Porter +10000 (FanDuel)<\/p>\n

Again, we start with opportunity, and Porter has been working with the Raiders<\/a>‘ first-team defense during camp as the third-round rookie competes for a big role out of the gate. He appears to be in the lead for the battle to start outside alongside Eric Stokes<\/a>, and he’ll get plenty of opportunity to prove his chops in a division with Patrick Mahomes<\/a>, Bo Nix<\/a> and Justin Herbert<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The question, of course, is how well he’ll perform once he’s on the field, but coach Pete Carroll has had success with midround cornerbacks before, most recently with Riq Woolen playing his way into the Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation in 2022 with six interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. However, he finished third behind Sauce Gardner<\/a> (two picks) and Aidan Hutchinson<\/a> (9.5 sacks and three interceptions), two blue-chip prospects taken near the top of the draft.<\/p>\n

Porter has two similar players to worry about in the race in Abdul Carter<\/a> and Travis Hunter<\/a>, but the latter may not play enough cornerback for the Jaguars<\/a> to be a factor. That makes Carter the clear favorite heading into the season, but an underwhelming performance or injury could open the field up for a surprise candidate like Porter. I also like that his NFL comparison for some during the predraft process was Woolen himself, suggesting he could be a great fit for the type of young player who can have success with Carroll.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Check out my 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year best bet rankings<\/a> at SportsLine.\u00a0Sign up for FanDuel to bet on Porter winning DROY here<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Want more futures betting content? Check out my 2025 NFL awards best bets<\/a> highlights, where I break down one of the players in my top two in terms of odds value for each award.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Prior to last season, I put a few bucks on Sam Darnold to win MVP at +20000. Darnold…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":79504,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[6359,49,48,32403,1737,3148,1736,1723,514,45600,25999,48114,48115,25996,48116,48113,25995,82,18081],"class_list":{"0":"post-79503","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-betting","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-darien-porter","12":"tag-houston-texans","13":"tag-justin-fields","14":"tag-las-vegas-raiders","15":"tag-new-york-jets","16":"tag-nfl","17":"tag-nfl-awards-odds","18":"tag-nfl-betting","19":"tag-nfl-expert-best-bets","20":"tag-nfl-futures-odds","21":"tag-nfl-gambling","22":"tag-nfl-longshot-best-bets","23":"tag-nfl-longshots","24":"tag-nfl-odds","25":"tag-sports","26":"tag-woody-marks"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79503"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79503\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}