With players such as Anthony Mantha and Eeli Tolvanen on the market, there\u2019s still time for general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff to go back to free agency to build the 2026-27 Winnipeg Jets.<\/p>\n
But Cheveldayoff has been adamant that some of Winnipeg\u2019s improvement next season must come from the players it already has on its roster.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou go through some individual players,\u201d Cheveldayoff said before the NHL Draft last month. \u201cGuys that had career years two years ago, some of them struggled last year. A lot of them took ownership of that and said that they\u2019ve got to be better.\u201d<\/p>\n
The list of underperforming players creates an X-factor for the Jets\u2019 performance next season. It includes captain Adam Lowry, veteran defencemen such as Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo, and prime-aged players such as Cole Perfetti and Dylan Samberg who were hurt to start last season. It even includes trade candidate Connor Hellebuyck, whose range of impacts on the Jets\u2019 fortunes varies wildly, whether or not he\u2019s traded before the season begins.<\/p>\n
NHL free agency: Early winners and losers<\/p>\n
Shayna Goldman and Madison Eades<\/p>\n
Which Jets are Winnipeg\u2019s biggest X-factors next season? When Cheveldayoff\u2019s offseason work is done, which Jets veterans will have the biggest impact on the team\u2019s playoff ambitions for 2027?\u00a0Here are best- and worst-case scenarios, plus my projections for each player\u2019s performance in 2026-27.<\/p>\n
Stuart Skinner, G, 27<\/p>\n
Best reasonable case: Hellebuyck is traded, and Skinner becomes the Jets\u2019 No. 1 goalie. He gives Winnipeg 50 to 55 games of quality goaltending, turning his opportunity to work with Wade Flaherty into the best season of his career. Whether through systems play or a renewed teamwide commitment to defence, the Jets give Skinner fewer Grade-A scoring chances to fend off than they gave Hellebuyck last season. His save percentage lands inside the top 10 among starters \u2014 perhaps close to the .913 he delivered in his best season in Edmonton.<\/p>\n
Worst reasonable case:\u00a0Hellebuyck is traded, Skinner becomes the Jets\u2019 No. 1 goalie, and Winnipeg gives him Hellebuyck\u2019s old workload. He falters in the role, posting numbers closer to the .885 save percentage and 45th-best goals saved above expected he recorded in Pittsburgh. The Jets miss the playoffs for the second straight season but draft outside the top five.<\/p>\n
Projection:\u00a0Skinner plays spectacularly at times and miserably at others, posting numbers that reflect an adequate No. 1A goaltender. If a Hellebuyck trade materializes, Skinner posts a .900 save percentage in 55 starts. If Hellebuyck starts the season with the Jets, then Skinner\u2019s save percentage increases but his workload falls. He is the Jets\u2019 No. 1 goaltender by 2027-28 at the latest.<\/p>\n
Adam Lowry, C, 33<\/p>\n
Best reasonable case:\u00a0Lowry puts together the most effective offseason regimen of his life. He reestablishes enough pop in his step to close off his checks, getting to better defensive positions in open ice and delivering punishment along the walls. The black hole that was Lowry\u2019s offensive zone heat map turns red again, indicating that he has won his battles, worn down his opponents and driven to the net like he did in his best years. His return to form is so complete that Winnipeg controls the shot clock and scoreboard when he is on the ice. His surgically repaired hip becomes a distant memory.<\/p>\n
Worst reasonable case:\u00a0Lowry is cooked. He was never a burner, but now, at 33 years old, he has fallen a step behind and it\u2019s not all about last season\u2019s return from hip surgery. The 21 points Lowry scored in 70 games last season become his new normal. By the end of the season, it\u2019s clear that Lowry is a fourth-line centre \u2014 not the play-driving shutdown centre that coaches can win with in a matchup role.<\/p>\n
Projection:\u00a0Lowry has made it to the scary part of the aging curve, but he is too stubborn not to bounce back from last season\u2019s disappointment. He needs to be able to win his battles to contribute to team success; a time will come when Lowry is simply incapable of playing like Lowry. This season, though, he scores 30 points and wins his minutes at even strength. The victory is minor, but it\u2019s enough to stall Father Time and create false hope for 2027-28.<\/p>\n
Cole Perfetti, LW\/C, 24<\/p>\n
Best reasonable case:\u00a0A Hellebuyck trade yields a legitimate No. 2 centre, giving Perfetti his best linemate since Nikolaj Ehlers \u2014 perhaps even Ryan McLeod, Perfetti\u2019s old OHL linemate. Perfetti surpasses his 50-point career high, playing all 82 games for the second time in his career. He gets time on the Jets\u2019 top power play, despite the new centre\u2019s quality, and starts to look like someone who might produce offence with or without a play driver like Ehlers on his line.<\/p>\n
Worst reasonable case:\u00a0Winnipeg keeps Hellebuyck. Scott Arniel goes back to Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi on the top line, reducing Perfetti\u2019s opportunity to play with one of the team\u2019s top scorers. As a complementary player without someone to drive play, open up space, or finish his passes, Perfetti posts 35 to 40 points instead of re-establishing himself as a 50-point threat.<\/p>\n
Projection:\u00a0The Jets augment their second line, whether via trade, a new approach to roster construction, the promotion of Viggo Bj\u00f6rck or a return to the Perfetti-Lowry-Vilardi line that developed chemistry at the end of last season. He stays mostly healthy and mostly consistent, producing 50 to 55 points, setting the table for a step forward in 2027-28.<\/p>\n
Neal Pionk, D, 30<\/p>\n