{"id":797227,"date":"2026-07-12T14:50:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-12T14:50:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/797227\/"},"modified":"2026-07-12T14:50:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-12T14:50:19","slug":"economic-week-ahead-july-13-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/797227\/","title":{"rendered":"ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 13-17"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575.39, up 1.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 1.7%\u00a0last week.\u00a0The dominant story was a sharp re-escalation of the war between the US and Iran. Trump declared the ceasefire “over”\u00a0on\u00a0Wednesday after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US carried out fresh airstrikes Wednesday night and again\u00a0on\u00a0Thursday, with Iran retaliating against US-allied Gulf states.\u00a0The price of Brent crude\u00a0oil spiked as high as $78.19 per barrel before easing back toward $76.01 by Friday (chart).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Semiconductor\u00a0stocks\u00a0whipsawed all week.\u00a0Samsung’s record 19-fold\u00a0y\/y\u00a0profit jump\u00a0last quarter,\u00a0reported on Tuesday,\u00a0still missed\u00a0elevated\u00a0Wall Street expectations. Micron’s $250 billion US investment pledge sparked a sharp Thursday rebound.\u00a0SK Hynix\u00a0made a\u00a0$26.5 billion Nasdaq debut\u00a0on\u00a0Friday,\u00a0the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company; its\u00a0stock rose 13%\u00a0that day.<\/p>\n

The calendar is unusually crowded this week. Q2 bank earnings kick off Tuesday with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Fedspeak is constant: Waller (Mon), Goolsbee (Tue), Williams and Musalem (Wed), Logan and Jefferson (Thu) all appear, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Tuesday\u00a0and\u00a0Wednesday. All this happens against the backdrop of June’s FOMC minutes, which showed nine of 18 officials now penciling in at least one Fed rate hike this year.<\/p>\n

Internationally, Tuesday brings a full slate out of Beijing (Q2 GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and the urban unemployment rate), with\u00a0the\u00a0consensus looking for GDP growth to slow to around 4.4%-4.7% y\/y from Q1’s 5.0%, while the Bank of Canada meets Wednesday and is widely expected to hold at 2.25% for a sixth straight meeting.<\/p>\n

With that said, here are the key economic releases most likely to shape investors’ thinking this week:<\/p>\n

(1) Inflation. June’s CPI (Tue) follows a hot May print, with headline and core inflation rates at 4.2% y\/y and 2.9% (chart). The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting<\/a> projects June’s comparable rates at 3.9% and 2.9%. The projected m\/m rates are 0.0% and 0.2%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

June’s PPI (Wed) follows an elevated May reading of 6.5% y\/y, the fastest pace since November 2022 (chart). The rapid drop in oil prices last month should show up in lower PPI inflation.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(2) Retail Sales. June’s report (Thu) follows a strong May, when advance sales rose 0.9% m\/m and 6.9% y\/y (chart). The weekly Redbook same-store sales index has been running even hotter, rising to 10.1% y\/y for the week of July 3, a multi-year high, confirming that consumer spending has stayed robust even as headline jobs growth has slowed recently.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(3) Employment. Initial unemployment insurance claims for the week of July 4 fell to 215,000, with the 4-week average trending down to 218,750, both still consistent with low layoffs. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(4) Manufacturing. July’s regional business surveys conducted by the NY (Wed) and Philly (Thu) Feds should confirm that business activity is still expanding (chart). <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(5) Industrial\u00a0Production.\u00a0June’s industrial production (Fri) should show a modest uptick, though manufacturing aggregate weekly hours edged down during the month (chart).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca1<\/p>\n

Join the discussion with Ed below! To leave comments or questions, log in to the Yardeni QuickTakes website and post them at the end of the QuickTakes article. Paid members’ contributions may be featured in our segment, “Ed Answers Your Questions”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575.39, up 1.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 1.7%\u00a0last week.\u00a0The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":797228,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":["post-797227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/797227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=797227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/797227\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/797228"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=797227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=797227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=797227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}