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Last month, the United Nations warned that this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o, a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures throughout the Pacific, would be particularly extreme<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThe world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,\u201d the World Metereological Organization cautioned<\/a> at the time. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that there was a rising chance of a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o, triggering drastic temperature swings and more frequent extreme weather events, from severe storms to major flooding. Meanwhile, human-driven climate change will only amplify these effects, making this summer particularly precarious.<\/p>\n But scientists say we\u2019re not entirely helpless. According to a new study<\/a> published in the journal Science Advances on Wednesday by researchers at UC San Diego, weather-altering interventions \u2014 including the radical proposition of dimming the Sun \u2014 could tamp down El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impacts.<\/p>\n The concept, broadly referred to as geoengineering, is deceptively simple. By injecting special particles into the Earth\u2019s stratosphere, more of the Sun\u2019s rays are reflected back into space, allowing the surface below to cool. It\u2019s the same basic principle as a volcanic eruption injecting chemicals that cause global temperatures to drop, like with the Krakatau blast in 1883<\/a>. <\/p>\n In their study, the researchers argued that \u201cmarine cloud brightening,\u201d a solar geongeering concept that involves using aerosols to make clouds over the sea brighter and therefore reflect more sunlight, could \u201ctheoretically mitigate extremes\u201d of seasonal phenomena, including El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n \u201cAs long-term anthropogenic warming and short-term natural variability often compound to produce extreme weather events, our findings suggest it may be worth considering interventions which target natural variability, rather than the forced response to greenhouse gases,\u201d the paper reads. \u201cSuch an approach could result in similar physical risk reduction with shorter duration interventions that carry less sociotechnical risk than a sustained deployment.\u201d<\/p>\n Geoengineering has proven highly controversial in the past, creating a major rift among climate scientists<\/a> and public outcry that\u2019s halted experiments<\/a> before they even started. Critics argue it\u2019s a distraction from more important solutions, like reducing the burning of fossil fuels, and that we still don\u2019t have a full picture of possible knock-on environmental effects. There are also major questions of governance \u2014 who gets to decide where these aerosols are released and when?<\/p>\n While coauthor and UC San Diego climate scientist Kate Ricke would normally fall into this camp of scientists urging for more research to understand the risks, she and her colleagues argued that extreme but temporary events like El Ni\u00f1os could serve as the perfect testing ground for strategic marine cloud brightening.<\/p>\n \u201cOne of the biggest social concerns around geoengineering is the fact that if we use it to reduce long-term climate risks, we have to deploy it continuously for an indefinite period of time,\u201d said coauthor and University of Chicago postdoctoral researcher Jessica Wan, who was a graduate student at Ricke\u2019s lab, in a statement<\/a>. \u201cIf we could target natural variability, we could get some of the benefits of geoengineering without having to employ it indefinitely.\u201d<\/p>\n For their latest paper, Ricke and her team built on a 2023 study<\/a> which found that bushfire smoke over the Pacific Ocean had emitted major amounts of aerosols, which brightened clouds and caused more solar radiation to reflect back into space.<\/p>\n The team simulated what would happen if cloud brightening chemicals would\u2019ve been deployed intentionally during previous El Ni\u00f1os and found that it would indeed weaken the weather pattern\u2019s effects.<\/p>\n Other experts were left unconvinced.<\/p>\n \u201cThese models are imperfect, and there\u2019s the possibility that you\u2019ll create an unpredicted problem that is worse than the problem you\u2019re trying to solve,\u201d Texas A&M University professor of atmospheric science Andrew Dessler, who was not involved in the research, told Wired<\/a>. \u201cI think this is a really interesting paper, and I learned a few things reading it, but I certainly would not say that this is a great idea and we should implement it.\u201d<\/p>\n As such, considering the many unknowns, there still aren\u2019t any concrete plans to test the idea out in the real world. But the authors argue it\u2019s worth a shot nonetheless.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a different way of thinking about geoengineering,\u201d said Ricke in the statement. \u201cWe need to understand a lot more, but if there is a way to use this in addition to the risk-reduction tools to mitigate El Ni\u00f1os, why wouldn\u2019t we consider it?\u201d<\/p>\n