Thailand\u2019s current GNI per capita under the Atlas method is US$7,690, while the high-income cut-off is more than US$14,375, about US$6,700 per person above Thailand\u2019s current level.<\/p>\n
If GNI per capita in both countries is assumed to grow at the same compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as over the past 10 years, at 3.7% a year for Thailand and 7.6% for Viet Nam, Viet Nam would be expected to overtake Thailand in about 11 years, in 2037.<\/p>\n
Under the World Bank\u2019s current threshold, Viet Nam would reach high-income status in around 2040, while Thailand would cross it in 2043, about three years later.<\/p>\n
However, this is only a scenario analysis based on the assumption that past growth rates continue. In reality, the outcome could change because of labour productivity, investment, economic policy, demographic structure, global economic conditions and the World Bank\u2019s income thresholds, which are revised every year.<\/p>\n
Although the model is not intended to predict the future, it shows that today\u2019s higher-income advantage could change if another country raises productivity and sustains income growth. This is at the heart of escaping the middle-income trap.<\/p>\n
The World Bank\u2019s income classifications are a tool for reflecting average income levels, not a measure of whether one country is \u2018developed\u2019 or \u2018more advanced\u2019 than another.<\/p>\n
For Thailand, reaching high-income status is therefore not simply a race to push GNI per capita past the World Bank\u2019s threshold. It would be the result of an economy capable of generating greater productivity, innovation and added value, while raising incomes broadly.<\/p>\n
Becoming a \u2018high-income country\u2019 may be one development milestone, but Thailand\u2019s future will be determined by its ability to raise productivity, foster innovation and sustain income growth, because these are the foundations of sustainable growth.<\/p>\n