Trent Frederic was an effective two-way winger with some offensive ability and a rugged edge for the Boston Bruins. In 75 regular-season games for the Edmonton Oilers, however, Frederic is a shadow of his former self. Late last season, there were signs of improvement. Is he back? Will Oilers fans begin to see the real Frederic?<\/p>\n
The gap\u00a0<\/p>\n
Using the final three seasons with the Bruins and his time in Edmonton, there\u2019s a massive difference in performance for Frederic.<\/p>\n
CategoryBostonEdmonton<\/p>\n
TOI<\/p>\n
11:57<\/p>\n
10:48<\/p>\n
Points-60<\/p>\n
1.57<\/p>\n
0.52<\/p>\n
Shots-60<\/p>\n
6.8<\/p>\n
5.85<\/p>\n
Shooting Pct<\/p>\n
12.8<\/p>\n
5.1<\/p>\n
GF Pct<\/p>\n
56<\/p>\n
35<\/p>\n
X-GF Pct<\/p>\n
52<\/p>\n
50<\/p>\n
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick<\/p>\n
The biggest takeaway from this overview is the expected goal share. Frederic has had some tough luck, aided by his own inability to score goals on shots taken. Frederic\u2019s points per 60 in Edmonton would normally make him a healthy scratch or even demoted, but his long-term deal (with a no-movement clause) means he is going to play every game. So, armed with the knowledge that Frederic isn\u2019t going anywhere, are there some positive indicators from last season?<\/p>\n
The injury and the downbeat results<\/p>\n
In 2023-24, Frederic posted 2.11 points per 60 at five-on-five, but that number fell to 1.03 in Boston the following year and just over half a point per 60 with Edmonton one year ago. His goal share went from 55 percent to 40 percent to 35 percent last season with the Oilers.<\/p>\n
Frederic suffered a high-ankle sprain in February, before his trade from Boston, but his offensive output in 2024-25 was low from the start. There are two things to look at: changes in linemates and changes in foot speed.<\/p>\n
His most common linemates in 2023-24 were Charlie Coyle, James van Riemsdyk and Morgan Geekie. Frederic and Coyle enjoyed an outstanding 73 percent goal share in 2023-24 when playing together at five-on-five. Frederic posted 2.51 points per 60 with Coyle that season, with his speed and his shot in the 78th percentile, via NHL Edge<\/a>.<\/p>\n That\u2019s the player the Oilers thought they were getting.<\/p>\n However, the 2024-25 season in Boston was never right. His shot was still in the 71st percentile, but the foot speed was now under NHL average (he went from 36.6 kph to 35.5 kph season over season). His offence floundered, his goal share dropped, and Frederic was no longer playing as often with the skill forwards in Boston.<\/p>\n Frederic scored 1.58 points per 60 with Coyle; disappointing but not devastating. He was eventually moved off the line as his goal share with Coyle was 38 percent (49 expected, similar to his experience with the Oilers in 2025-26).<\/p>\n Based on the evidence from the 2024-25 season in Boston, before the high-ankle sprain in February, Frederic was still scoring with Coyle. He was also bleeding goals at five-on-five, and his decrease in foot speed made it difficult to get to plays as it had been leading up to 2024-25. I can find no record of an earlier injury, but the dive in max foot speed indicated some real concerns for Boston surrounding Frederic.<\/p>\n A sliver of hope in Edmonton?<\/p>\n Using foot speed, goal share and individual points per 60, here\u2019s a month-by-month look at Frederic\u2019s 2025-26 season.<\/p>\n MonthMax SpeedGoal PctPoints-60<\/p>\n October<\/p>\n nil<\/p>\n 40<\/p>\n 0.41<\/p>\n November<\/p>\n 34.96<\/p>\n 22<\/p>\n 0.39<\/p>\n December<\/p>\n 34.96<\/p>\n 29<\/p>\n 0.44<\/p>\n January<\/p>\n 34.96<\/p>\n 33<\/p>\n 0<\/p>\n February<\/p>\n 35.33<\/p>\n 33<\/p>\n 1.17<\/p>\n March<\/p>\n 35<\/p>\n 38<\/p>\n 1.4<\/p>\n April<\/p>\n 36.43<\/p>\n 57<\/p>\n 0.63<\/p>\n All numbers five-on-five<\/p>\n This is a fascinating view of a player who took more than a year to find his old foot speed and catch up to the play. Frederic expressed frustration at times during the year, no doubt because living a hockey life in chase mode and never getting to the play would be difficult for a player who had success prior to the high-ankle sprain.<\/p>\n By the end of the regular season, Frederic was back to the 70th percentile in max speed, and his shot was hard enough to reach the 68th percentile. Those facts, along with a late-season spike in points per 60 (1.31 points per 60 in 13 games over March and April) plus some eye-popping games playing with rookie Colton Dach, gave Oilers fans hope. Frederic is himself again, or so it seems.<\/p>\n Mysteries remain<\/p>\n There are two mysteries about Frederic that the numbers don\u2019t answer well enough. The first mystery: what happened before the high-ankle sprain in Boston that contributed to the downswing in speed and effectiveness?<\/p>\n News reports in late February 2025 discussed the high-ankle sprain (just before Frederic\u2019s trade to Edmonton), but I can find no reports of anything from October through December. We would be looking for anything that could impact foot speed, and it isn\u2019t there.<\/p>\n