The Drivers\u2019 Championship So Far: How Have the Markets Moved?<\/p>\n
\t \t\tWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? This market has been fairly volatile in the early weeks of the season, with Antonelli\u2019s win probability ranging from 5.3% to 71.6% between January 10th and June 8th. This peaked after the Italian triumphed in a fifth consecutive Grand Prix in Monte Carlo.<\/p>\n However, he has gone winless in three races since, while the market appears to have settled amid the recent resurgence of George Russell and relative consistency of both Ferrari drivers.<\/p>\n Interestingly, Russell\u2019s price has continued to move in a much narrower range since his opening weekend victory in Australia. This suggests that his backers are less swayed by sentiment and have high confidence in the true probability of the British driver prevailing.<\/p>\n Lewis Hamilton saw his win probability settle at 13.1% as of July 14th. This has followed a run of four podium finishes in five races, while the seven-time Drivers\u2019 champion also won by +19.561 seconds in Catalonia on June 14th.<\/p>\n Did you know?<\/p>\n Our exclusive Polymarket promo code, CORG, will earn you a $50 trading bonus when you sign up to Polymarket<\/a> and make a $20 deposit. <\/p>\n Finding Value: What are the Best Value Picks?<\/p>\n Prediction markets are renowned for their tendency to overreact to real-time news and events.\u00a0This has been particularly evident in Antonelli\u2019s pricing, which has reflected his largely unexpected rise to prominence and incredible run of form between March 15th and June 7th.<\/p>\n This has potentially caused him to be overvalued in the F1 Drivers\u2019 Championship market, particularly at a current price of 59\u00a2.\u00a0<\/p>\n So, although he undoubtedly remains the favorite, there may be better value picks depending on your risk tolerance and outlook. Here are some options to consider!<\/p>\n \u201cKimi Antonelli\u201d | \u201cNo\u201d at 41.5\u00a2 | 41.3% Chance<\/p>\n \t \t\tWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? Antonelli remains the most obvious pick at first glance, with a 58.7% win probability in the Drivers\u2019 Championship market.<\/p>\n However, this value is marginally lower than his current price of 59\u00a2, reinforcing the idea that the true probability of an Antonelli title win may also be lower.\u00a0<\/p>\n There\u2019s certainly a sense that Antonelli\u2019s \u201cYes\u201d price has already peaked, with Russell, Hamilton and Leclerc increasingly competitive in the previous three races. Antonelli himself is also relatively inexperienced and unproven, while his lead at the top of the Drivers\u2019 Championship standings is now just 25 points.<\/p>\n Ultimately, buying the \u201cNo\u201d contract on Antonelli at 41.5\u00a2 offers the best real-time value. This outcome is slightly underpriced, while I expect \u201cNo\u201d to trade even higher as the season progresses. This also creates the opportunity to sell back to the market and make a profit before the outcome is settled.<\/p>\n \u201cGeorge Russell\u201d | \u201cYes\u201d at 20\u00a2 | 19% Chance<\/p>\n \t \t\tWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? Russell started the season as the clear favorite in this market, after some stellar performances in preseason testing. His initial win probability prior to the Australian Grand Prix on March 7th was 46.0%, while this has since peaked at 61% before settling back at 19% at the time of writing.<\/p>\n Clearly, Russell\u2019s price has proved less volatile than Antonelli\u2019s, with the Brit far more seasoned and arguably backed by more knowledgeable F1 fans.\u00a0<\/p>\n The true probability of the 28-year-old winning his maiden title is higher than his price implies, especially given his most recent performances and close proximity to Antonelli in the current standings.<\/p>\n You can trade \u201cYes\u201d on Russell winning at just 20\u00a2 too, creating a positive EV which reinforces that this outcome is underpriced. This price also has the scope to increase significantly during the season, creating another opportunity to potentially sell your position and lock in an early profit.<\/p>\n \u201cLewis Hamilton\u201d | \u201cYes\u201d at 13.2\u00a2 | 13.1% Chance<\/p>\n \t
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Yes 59% \u00b7 No 41%
\n\t\t\tView full market & trade on Polymarket
\n\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/themes\/news-hendrix\/inc\/blocks\/did-you-know\/did-you-know-icon.svg\"){kind=icon}
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Yes 59% \u00b7 No 41%
\n\t\t\tView full market & trade on Polymarket
\n\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n![\"Kimi](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Kimi-Antonelli-F1-championship-odds.jpg\")
(Photo by Anni Graf \u2013 Formula 1\/Formula 1 via Getty Images)<\/p>\n
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Yes 59% \u00b7 No 41%
\n\t\t\tView full market & trade on Polymarket
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![\"Lewis](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Lewis-Hamilton-F1-championship-odds.jpg\")
(Photo by Bryn Lennon \u2013 Formula 1\/Formula 1 via Getty Images)<\/p>\n