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<\/p>\nIf you think Formula 1 is winding down towards its mid-season break, think again.<\/p>\n
The final two rounds before the August shutdown are critical to the shape of 2026 both on and off the track.<\/p>\n
Traditionally these are decisive weeks for the driver market, with the big calls then made just after the break.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Fox Sports, available on Kayo Sports, is the only place to watch every practice, qualifying session and race in the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship\u2122 LIVE in 4K. New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.<\/a><\/p>\n This is also the moment we see some of the last big pushes for performance upgrades as the end of the European season nears.<\/p>\n Last but certainly not least, there\u2019s the championship, where Mercedes\u2019s lead is on a precipice, with its class-leading pace on one side but its fragile reliability on the other.<\/p>\n THE DRIVER MARKET<\/p>\n The Max Verstappen question<\/p>\n Max Verstappen will be able to trigger the escape clause in his contract after the next two races. Combined with his apparently deteriorating relationship with his Red Bull Racing team<\/a>, he\u2019s at the centre of the driver market.<\/p>\n The only question is what he wants to do in the circumstances.<\/p>\n But with his link to McLaren highly speculative and also heavily denied<\/a>, and with every other frontrunning team also fully committed for 2027, the Dutchman\u2019s only options are to stay put for another year or call it quits on Formula 1.<\/p>\n Reports suggest he doesn\u2019t have to tell Red Bull Racing of his decision until October, but formally he\u2019ll be able to make a call as soon as 11 days from now.<\/p>\n But even with a lack of options, Verstappen remains the linchpin of the driver market.<\/p>\n The situation is rare: a driver in a top team quitting of his own volition at a time all the other top drivers in F1 are contracted.<\/p>\n If you\u2019re any one of the other 11 drivers out of contract \u2014 excluding teammate Isack Hadjar \u2014 you\u2019re biding your time to be in a position to pitch yourself as Red Bull Racing\u2019s next star.<\/p>\n It will test some drivers\u2019 levels of self-awareness, but you\u2019ve got to be in it to win it.<\/p>\n That in turn heightens the importance of big results from other drivers in the coming races.<\/p>\n Verstappen crashes out in British GP | 02:19<\/p>\n The next in line<\/p>\n On paper Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad should be next in line for Verstappen\u2019s seat given the very purpose of their Racing Bulls team is to supply Red Bull Racing with talent.<\/p>\n Both have been performing strongly this season. Lawson has been leading Lindblad, as you\u2019d expect, but Lindblad hasn\u2019t lacked for pace, only the polish that comes with experience.<\/p>\n But promotion wouldn\u2019t be a given for either.<\/p>\n On the one hand, Lawson has already had a crack at the senior team \u2014 albeit for only two grands prix \u2014 and no driver has ever returned to Red Bull Racing after being dropped.<\/p>\n On the other hand, Lindblad will be in just his second season next year, while Hadjar will be in only his third campaign \u2014 it would be a gutsy line-up to take into a title battle against the far more established frontrunning combinations.<\/p>\n Yet if one of them doesn\u2019t get the nod, you\u2019d have to wonder what the point of Racing Bulls is.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a secondary reason Lawson or Lindblad might be moved up.<\/p>\n Red Bull junior driver Nikola Tsolov took the lead of the Formula 2 championship in Silverstone and could be pushing for promotion next year.<\/p>\n Racing Bulls has already rebuffed rumours he\u2019s being pencilled in for a drive, not least because he doesn\u2019t have a superlicence yet \u2014 though he\u2019ll get one if he finishes in the top five of the championship. If he wins the series, he won\u2019t be allowed to compete again.<\/p>\n He could always be shuffled to Super Formula or elsewhere for a year, but this is the sort of upwards pressure the Red Bull program has historically loved, and Verstappen quitting could create the conditions for him to move to Racing Bulls.<\/p>\n Leclerc wins amidst safety car confusion | 03:32<\/p>\n The midfield<\/p>\n There are some other key seats to watch over the next two rounds.<\/p>\n Esteban Ocon is the driver most at risk of losing his spot. He\u2019s increasingly adrift of teammate Oliver Bearman in qualifying and is yet to beat the Briton in a grand prix.<\/p>\n Yuki Tsunoda is a frontrunner for the drive. McLaren reserve and reigning F2 champion Leonardo Fornaroli is another, as is Ferrari junior Rafael C\u00e2mara, currently third on the F2 title table.<\/p>\n Franco Colapinto remains unsigned, and though a promising form upturn in North America earlier this year seemed to make him safe, teammate Pierre Gasly has since reasserted himself and handed out some thrashings.<\/p>\n Colapinto is the least competitive teammate in grand prix qualifying this season bar Lance Stroll, with an average 0.36-second deficit over a single lap.<\/p>\n No driver is more than Colapinto\u2019s 2.8 places behind Gasly in qualifying or his 3.8 places behind Gasly in races.<\/p>\n \u201cEverybody wants more,\u201d said Alpine managing director Steve Nielsen.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen the time comes, we\u2019ll make the decisions. If he\u2019s good enough, he\u2019ll stay, and if he\u2019s not, then there\u2019s a better option. That\u2019s just Formula 1.\u201d<\/p>\n Not exactly an emphatic endorsement.<\/p>\n If not Colapinto, Williams has left itself vulnerable to losing Carlos Sainz or Alex Albon with its painfully slow start, which it doesn\u2019t expect to turn around until Azerbaijan in September.<\/p>\n Finally, there\u2019s Fernando Alonso, who remains uncommitted to Formula 1.<\/p>\n Though he\u2019s denied his decision will rest solely on whether Aston Martin can show signs of life, it\u2019s surely no coincidence he says he\u2019ll decide around the first or second race after the mid-season break, once it\u2019s clear whether the team\u2019s new parts and Honda\u2019s new engine have worked.<\/p>\n THE FORM GUIDE<\/p>\n Aston Martin shoots for pride<\/p>\n Whether or not it\u2019s decisive to his future, Alonso\u2019s predicament is directly linked to how badly Aston Martin has performed this season and its odds of recovery.<\/p>\n The team has not upgraded its car all year, preferring instead to bank on one big update due at the Hungarian Grand Prix next weekend. A second tranche of parts is due in the Netherlands, the first race after the break, where Honda will also bring a new engine.<\/p>\n There\u2019s some speculation that Aston Martin believes it could find a gain of 2.5 seconds between its new chassis and power unit. It would be a remarkable step even by this year\u2019s standards of big and sudden improvements.<\/p>\n On average this season Aston Martin has been 3.7 seconds off the pace in qualifying. Subtracting 2.5 seconds from that position would put it on par with Racing Bulls and Alpine at the head of the midfield.<\/p>\n However, it\u2019s important to remember that every other team has been upgrading away from Aston Martin. The gap has been getting larger at pretty much every race.<\/p>\n For example, Aston Martin has been 4.4 seconds off the pace over the last three grands prix. Subtracting 2.5 seconds from this number would put it near Haas, which is currently the eighth quickest team.<\/p>\n Either outcome would be more respectable than its current position as the slowest car on the grid and needing a miracle to add to its single point scored at high-attrition Monaco, albeit it will still be a way off the team\u2019s lofty frontrunning ambitions.<\/p>\n But any sign of life is critical now.<\/p>\n Marc Marquez rules Sachsenring | 00:49<\/p>\n McLaren\u2019s last shot at the championship \u2014 and the first signs of a 2027 recovery<\/p>\n McLaren will be bracing for a tough Belgian Grand Prix this weekend while attempting to remain hopeful that the tide will turn in Hungary, where it will bring the first part of what it hopes will be a two-part turnaround of its season.<\/p>\n The team was Mercedes\u2019s closest challenger before the European season, where upgrades from other teams have left it as the slowest frontrunner at three of the last four grands prix.<\/p>\n It\u2019s now an improbable 154 points off the title lead, with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri 82 points and 97 points off Andrea Kimi Antonelli respectively.<\/p>\n McLaren came from 115 points off the title lead to win the championship in 2024. With Red Bull Racing finishing 49 points adrift, the turnaround was worth 192 points.<\/p>\n That was over 18 rounds, however. McLaren will have only 12 remaining after this weekend\u2019s Belgian Grand Prix.<\/p>\n But attempting to defend either title this year is only part of it. McLaren still has to prove it understands its shortcomings under these regulations.<\/p>\n With the rules unchanged next year, lessons learned this season will pay dividends in 2027.<\/p>\n Bezzechi suffers brutal collarbone break | 00:57<\/p>\n THE CHAMPIONSHIP<\/p>\n You wouldn\u2019t have guessed after Mercedes dominated the first two grands prix of the season that the championship would be in dispute between two teams and three or four drivers, but Ferrari\u2019s big swing in form has enlivened the title battle.<\/p>\n No Mercedes rival has yet strung together two strong weekends in a row, but Ferrari has come closest with victories in two of the last three grands prix.<\/p>\n It still needs to prove its dire Austria form was a blip, but its unexpectedly good result in Silverstone suggested there\u2019s a lot of goodness in the car to be unlocked.<\/p>\n Spa-Francorchamps this weekend makes similar high-downforce, high-efficiency demands as Silverstone. The team doesn\u2019t expect to repeat its victory, but if it can put itself in the mix again, that would be a big tick ahead of Hungary, a circuit with a layout that should reward Ferrari\u2019s prodigious downforce levels and cornering performance.<\/p>\n The team is a reasonable 78 points off Mercedes, but Lewis Hamilton\u2019s 32-point deficit is far more interesting. If he can go into the break less than 25 points in arrears, it\u2019ll be game on.<\/p>\n Whether or not he does could depend on George Russell.<\/p>\n The pre-season title favourite has had his bad luck evened out by Antonelli\u2019s failure to score in two of the last three grands prix with technical problems and is now only 25 points off, but by his own admission he hasn\u2019t been performing at a title-winning level. Second-year Antonelli deserves his lead.<\/p>\n Russell won\u2019t want to go into the break more than a victory worth of points behind his teammate. He won\u2019t want to go in with a 2-5 victory margin \u2014 or worse \u2014 to the teenage Italian.<\/p>\n He won\u2019t want Antonelli to end the first half of the season equalling his career tally of seven grand prix victories, which feels like it would be some sort of psychic blow given the gulf in their experience.<\/p>\n Lando Norris proved last season you can win the title with a late run of form from an improbable margin, but the Briton wasn\u2019t scrambling for form in the first half of the season in the same way Russell has been.<\/p>\n Some pre-break momentum could be crucial to Russell generating some belief that the championship could still come his way.<\/p>\n Payne extends title lead after race 21 | 02:07<\/p>\n THE POLITICS<\/p>\n F1\u2019s engine development concession system ADUO \u2014 additional development and upgrade opportunities \u2014 will hand down its next assessment after the Hungarian Grand Prix.<\/p>\n Mercedes (2 per cent or more down on power), and Ferrari, Audi and Honda (4 per cent or more down) all received upgrade concessions, which means none will be eligible for more upgrades.<\/p>\n Red Bull, however, strongly believes there\u2019s a flaw in the system that deemed it had the most powerful engine.<\/p>\n Though everyone seems to agree that measuring only combustion power \u2014 and not accounting for hybrid performance \u2014 is fine, evidently there\u2019s dissatisfaction with the method.<\/p>\n Audi has now formally voiced concern that the system has been gamed by the big players.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s possible, for example, that Mercedes had an engine with superior potential but had no need to push it to the limit because it already had an advantage thanks to the car,\u201d Audi boss Mattia Binotto told <\/a>Autosport<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cIf that were the case, it could have also gained additional development margin.<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s why I think the regulation needs to be rethought in this regard. This wasn\u2019t the original intent of the ADUO; the goal was to help those who were actually falling behind, not to create situations in which the true potential of a power unit might be difficult to assess.\u201d<\/p>\n Audi is concerned because it will struggle to catch Mercedes \u2014 which by consensus has the best power unit package \u2014 if the German marque can keep moving the goalposts.<\/p>\n Red Bull is concerned that if concessions are spent on non-combustion components, the FIA might continue to judge it to have the best combustion engine, which means it will never get any upgrades of its own.<\/p>\n The arguments are complex and, as ever, deeply self-interested.<\/p>\n They also show no signs of being resolved, certainly not on this side of the mid-season break.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If you think Formula 1 is winding down towards its mid-season break, think again. 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