{"id":805667,"date":"2026-07-16T13:02:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T13:02:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/805667\/"},"modified":"2026-07-16T13:02:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T13:02:09","slug":"mlb-2026-second-half-preview-rankings-projections-playoff-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/805667\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB 2026: Second-half preview, rankings, projections, playoff odds"},"content":{"rendered":"

That the Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a> have the best record and the largest division lead in baseball as the second half of the season gets underway certainly is not a shock.<\/p>\n

Beyond that, however, a look at the standings shows a lot of surprises.<\/p>\n

The Chicago White Sox<\/a> tied for the AL Central lead? The Tampa Bay Rays<\/a> with the best record in the American League? The Detroit Tigers<\/a> eight games under .500, potentially making Tarik Skubal<\/a> one of the biggest trade deadline prizes in decades?<\/p>\n

And how about the National League? The Miami Marlins<\/a> sitting in a wild-card spot? The Washington Nationals<\/a>, along with the Pittsburgh Pirates<\/a>, leading baseball in runs scored? The Philadelphia Phillies<\/a> digging out of a 9-19 hole that cost manager Rob Thomson his job to sit two games out of the division lead? And the New York Mets<\/a>, with a payroll of more than $375 million, wallowing in last place with the second-worst record in the NL?<\/p>\n

Didn\u2019t see all that coming. What could come next?<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo and Eric Karabell to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We\u2019ve also included Doolittle\u2019s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.<\/p>\n

Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle\u2019s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.<\/p>\n

Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.<\/p>\n

Tier 1: The big fourLos Angeles Dodgers<\/p>\n

Record: 61-36 | Projected final record: 102-60<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 99.7% | Playoff odds: 100.0% | Championship odds: 27.5%<\/p>\n

How they got to the top: The Dodgers have received a combined eight starts from front-line starters Blake Snell<\/a> and Tyler Glasnow<\/a>, and seven appearances from their new, high-priced closer, Edwin Diaz<\/a>. Kyle Tucker<\/a>, making a whopping $55 million this season, has an adjusted OPS of 100. And yet, nobody has a better winning percentage, a higher run differential or a bigger division lead than these Dodgers. It\u2019s a testament to their overwhelming depth. Shohei Ohtani<\/a> is doing Shohei Ohtani<\/a> things, but also: Andy Pages<\/a> and Justin Wrobleski<\/a> have been breakout stars; Freddie Freeman<\/a>, Max Muncy<\/a> and Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/a> have also put together All-Star seasons, and Tanner Scott<\/a> has bounced back from a miserable first year in L.A.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Diaz will return to the bullpen shortly after the All-Star break, and Snell and Glasnow will follow. In the meantime, the Dodgers hope their star catcher, Will Smith<\/a>, will return from a neck injury. None of them will be rushed back, of course, because the only thing that matters to the Dodgers is that they\u2019re at their best heading into October — at which point they\u2019ll look to become the first National League team ever to three-peat. Mookie Betts<\/a> shook off a brutal start to the year, but the Dodgers are still waiting on Tucker. If he gets going, this offense — first in the majors in OPS without Tucker producing — will elevate to another level. — Gonzalez<\/p>\n

Milwaukee Brewers<\/p>\n

Record: 59-37 | Projected final record: 98-64<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 88.2% | Playoff odds: 99.6% | Championship odds: 16.5%<\/p>\n

How they got to the top: The names on the jerseys change in Milwaukee, but the team seems to remain the same. Young, athletic and competitive. After advancing to the National League Championship Series last season, the Brewers are on target for at least a return trip even though they continue to lean hard on rookies. Milwaukee has once again relied on an athletic, high-contact offense to keep the scoreboard turning despite a lack of big-time power to go with its typically stifling run prevention. Star-level production from Brice Turang<\/a> among the hitters and Jacob Misiorowski<\/a> among the pitchers have been the cornerstones. The Brewers just keep doing what the Brewers do.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: One of the biggest questions in the majors is how aggressive the Brewers might be as we close in on the trade deadline. History tells us Milwaukee will take a measured approach. Certainly, the Brewers are doing fine with what they already have, and one of baseball\u2019s most fecund farm systems continues to churn out ready-right-now roster upgrades. At the same time, the Brewers\u2019 consistent success over the past decade has yet to yield a pennant and the organization is as well positioned as any to leverage minor league depth into a splashy deadline pickup. — Doolittle<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Rays<\/p>\n

Record: 56-38 | Projected final record: 94-68<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 58.8% | Playoff odds: 98.9% | Championship odds: 11.3%<\/p>\n

What makes them a contender: The Rays pace the American League in wins and should end a modest two-year streak of missing the playoffs. Credit to the lineup\u2019s big three of 3B Junior Caminero<\/a> (28 HRs), DH Yandy Diaz<\/a> (.322 batting average) and 1B Jonathan Aranda<\/a> (64 RBIs), while RHPs Drew Rasmussen<\/a>, Nick Martinez<\/a> (stunning emergence at 35) and LHP Shane McClanahan<\/a> carry the rotation. RHP Bryan Baker<\/a>, 31, who entered this season with four career saves, already boasts 25 and should become the first Rays pitcher to reach 30 saves since 2017. It feels like the Rays, led by Kevin Cash, the longest-tenured manager in baseball, always find a way to overcome finances, stadium issues, lesser talent or whatever obstacles they face, but this team looks special.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Major changes to the lineup and rotation may not be needed, and perhaps may not be affordable anyway, but the Rays as they are can certainly compete with the mighty Yankees — and any AL team. The Rays are mindful of what occurred the past two seasons, when the team lost more games than it won in the second half, thus easily missing the playoffs. This team will look to avoid catastrophe, and if Tampa Bay can avoid injuries to the rotation, it seems likely to do precisely that. — Karabell<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves<\/p>\n

Record: 55-40 | Projected final record: 92-70<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 64.2% | Playoff odds: 92.8% | Championship odds: 6.7%<\/p>\n

How they got here: After a disappointing 2025 season in which Atlanta won only 76 games and saw its impressive seven-year run of playoff berths end, these Braves started quickly, entering June having won a league-best 40 games. Injuries to the lineup (Ronald Acuna Jr.<\/a>, hamstring) and rotation (Spencer Strider<\/a>, elbow) have tested their depth since then, as the Phillies and Marlins are within one good week of taking over the NL East lead. The Braves look like a playoff team that could make an October run, as C Drake Baldwin<\/a>, 1B Matt Olson<\/a>, 2B Ozzie Albies<\/a>, LHP Chris Sale<\/a> and RHP Raisel Iglesias<\/a> earned All-Star spots.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Considering that the Braves held a seemingly insurmountable double-digit division lead in April, it would be disappointing if they were to fall short of winning the NL East. The Phillies and Marlins, however, don\u2019t seem to be going away. The Braves, featuring several weak lineup spots, figure to be aggressive at the trade deadline. One area to improve is in left field, where another Jurickson Profar<\/a> suspension — this one for the entire year — caught them off guard. Shortstop is a problem, though rookie Jim Jarvis<\/a> may be a solution. Young RHPs JR Ritchie<\/a>, Owen Murphy and Didier Fuentes<\/a> may play (or continue to play) key roles, or they may be replaced. — Karabell<\/p>\n

Tier 2: Largest threats to big fourNew York Yankees<\/p>\n

Record: 54-42 | Projected final record: 92-70<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 39.6% | Playoff odds: 97.7% | Championship odds: 11.8%<\/p>\n

How do they make the jump to the top tier: Get healthy. The Yankees\u2019 injured list includes 19 All-Star Game nods among Aaron Judge<\/a>, Giancarlo Stanton<\/a>, Max Fried<\/a> and Carlos Rod\u00f3n. Teams avoid using injuries as an excuse publicly, but the fact is the Yankees are missing four of their best players, including the two-time defending AL MVP, and are subsequently not playing as well. Fried is nearing a rehab assignment and should be the first of the four to return. Rod\u00f3n, Stanton and Judge aren\u2019t expected to return before August. If and when they do, the Yankees should be the favorites to win the pennant.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The Yankees, even with those injuries, should be able to tread water in a weak American League. They still have three healthy All-Stars in Ben Rice<\/a>, Cody Bellinger<\/a> and Cam Schlittler<\/a>, and Fried\u2019s return will give them a significant boost. General manager Brian Cashman will surely make moves to improve the roster by the trade deadline; catcher and bullpen are obvious areas to address. But they\u2019ll need their stars — Judge especially — back in time for the postseason to contend for the franchise\u2019s first championship since 2009. — Castillo<\/p>\n

Chicago Cubs<\/p>\n

Record: 54-42 | Projected final record: 90-72<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 10.0% | Playoff odds: 82.7% | Championship odds: 4.5%<\/p>\n

How do they make the jump to the top tier: Get healthy on the mound and find some consistency to their offense. They have a shot at doing both as Matthew Boyd<\/a> is already back from injury and performing well while Jameson Taillon<\/a> (hamstring) should be next. Then there is Edward Cabrera<\/a> (abductor), Daniel Palenica (flexor), Hoby Milner<\/a> (appendicitis), Ben Brown<\/a> (neck) and a few others who could help down the stretch. With Dansby Swanson<\/a> and Alex Bregman<\/a> looking better at the plate — barring steps backward — the Cubs\u2019 lineup looks lengthy again. Another leap forward is not impossible.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The Cubs\u2019 floor should at least maintain their position in the wild-card race while their ceiling might depend on the above pitchers getting healthy along with what the front office does at the trade deadline. Like seemingly every contender, an impact starter and reliever could make the difference for the Cubs. Infielder Pedro Ramirez<\/a> is a natural fit for a trade as he\u2019s blocked in the infield. Chicago has major league talent available to move. — Rogers<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Phillies<\/p>\n

Record: 54-43 | Projected final record: 89-73<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 26.7% | Playoff odds: 77.8% | Championship odds: 3.4%<\/p>\n

How do they make the jump to the top tier: Stay on the path they\u2019re on. Atlanta came back to the pack recently while the Phillies surged, creating a fun race down the stretch for the NL East crown. Though the Phillies have big names in their lineup, everything runs through that starting staff. Cristopher Sanchez<\/a>, Zack Wheeler<\/a> and Jesus Luzardo<\/a> match up well against the Braves\u2019 Chris Sale<\/a> and whoever comes in behind him. If I\u2019m a Braves fan, I\u2019m nervous, very nervous.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Well, I\u2019m sure Dave Dombrowski will sit on his hands at the trade deadline and ignore what could be the team\u2019s last great chance at a championship. OK, that might be both a lie and an exaggeration: We know Dombrowski will be aggressive at the end of the month and the team isn\u2019t necessarily constructed to fall apart just yet. But they are getting older so expect a big move for a bat as well as a back-end reliever. It\u2019s World Series or bust in Philly. — Rogers<\/p>\n

Seattle Mariners<\/p>\n

Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 83-79<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 37.5% | Playoff odds: 55.4% | Championship odds: 2.8%<\/p>\n

What makes them a contender: The starting rotation is still the foundation of the team, deep enough that the Mariners will apparently shift to a six-man rotation in the second half after ditching the short-lived piggyback system. The pitching certainly has carried an offense that has plummeted to 28th in runs per game after hitting .229 in June and a miserable .199 so far in July. But even the rotation could use a little room for improvement. Bryan Woo<\/a>\u2019s inconsistency has been the biggest issue as he is 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA at home and 1-6, 6.28 on the road. George Kirby<\/a> is allowing a career-worst OPS and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is in decline for the third season in a row. Still, Seattle starters are first in innings and second in quality starts. With a thin bullpen, maybe the Mariners go back to a five-man rotation while moving a starter — Emerson Hancock<\/a> makes the most sense — to a relief role.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The Mariners remain the favorite to win the division, but it feels like they should be up five or six games instead of battling the Rangers and Astros. The key is obvious: They need to start hitting, starting with their supposed big three of Cal Raleigh<\/a> (OPS down 367 points from 2025), Julio Rodriguez<\/a> (down 51 points) and Josh Naylor<\/a> (down 145 points). Rodriguez missed the final nine games before the All-Star break with a concussion, but he will be ready to go. Even so, you have to think Jerry Dipoto will look to add some help at the trade deadline, especially a right-handed bat or two given the big struggles against left-handed pitching. That doesn\u2019t necessarily mean trading one of their starters, but the Mariners will have to think about dealing from their strength. — Schoenfield<\/p>\n

Tier 3: Contenders in the mixCleveland Guardians<\/p>\n

Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 86-76<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 60.3% | Playoff odds: 80.9% | Championship odds: 4.0%<\/p>\n

What makes them a contender: Rotation durability and the usual excellent bullpen. The Guardians are the only team to use just five starters all season and the rotation ranks seventh in the majors with a 3.69 ERA. Rookie All-Star Parker Messick<\/a> has led the way, going 8-5 with a 2.73 ERA, and Gavin Williams<\/a> has won 10 games while at times looking like he has a chance to be one of the best starters in the league. With five healthy starters, the Guardians are third in the majors in rotation innings, allowing Stephen Vogt to work his adept hand with the bullpen. With All-Star closer Cade Smith<\/a> locking down the ninth inning, the bullpen is eighth in ERA, fourth in win probability added and first in holds. Vogt matches up his pen as well as any manager in baseball.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The Guardians have managed to survive since June 13 — the day Jose Ramirez<\/a>, Chase DeLauter<\/a> and Angel Martinez<\/a> landed on the injured list. They\u2019ve gone 12-13 since then, with DeLauter back since late June, but overall the offense has struggled to score runs, ranking ahead of only the Padres in runs per game at a meager 3.97 — matching last year\u2019s total. That\u2019s disappointing given the impact of DeLauter and fellow rookie Travis Bazzana<\/a>, but key veterans like Steven Kwan<\/a> and Rhys Hoskins<\/a> have really scuffled and even Ramirez was below his usual standards before getting hurt. If the rotation stays healthy, the Guardians can certainly win the AL Central, but with the likelihood that they won\u2019t add an impact bat, the likes of Ramirez (when he returns), Kwan and Kyle Manzardo<\/a> will have to step it up. — Schoenfield<\/p>\n

Chicago White Sox<\/p>\n

Record: 50-45 | Projected final record: 83-79<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 21.5% | Playoff odds: 50.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%<\/p>\n

What makes them a contender: Slug, slug and more slug. Chicago already ranks fourth in home runs and that\u2019s with Munetaka Murakami<\/a> missing six weeks. He\u2019s back, which will only provide more protection for Miguel Vargas<\/a> and Colson Montgomery<\/a>. But a sneaky key to the team\u2019s offense is hitters 6-9 in the lineup where All-Star Tristan Peters<\/a> and rookie Braden Montgomery<\/a> hit. The White Sox\u2019s bottom four in the order have an OPS in the top 10 of the league. It has lengthened things out and taken some pressure off the big three. Meanwhile, Sean Burke<\/a> has quietly emerged as their ace alongside Davis Martin<\/a>. It\u2019s a solid group, playing connected baseball.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: It would be hard to imagine a big backward slide for the White Sox simply because of the division (and league) they play in. But that doesn\u2019t mean they can\u2019t tire or simply not have enough experience down the stretch. Another starter and back-end reliever would fit their needs at the end of the month as Seranthony Dominguez<\/a> has struggled while Grant Taylor<\/a> is still learning his way. A fight to the finish is expected by the most surprising team in baseball. — Rogers<\/p>\n

Miami Marlins<\/p>\n

Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 85-77<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 8.6% | Playoff odds: 47.2% | Championship odds: 1.1%<\/p>\n

What makes them a contender: The spunky Marlins, led by first-year manager Clayton McCullough, are one of baseball\u2019s top surprises, challenging for the NL East lead despite lacking power. No Marlins are on pace for 25 home runs, but this team makes contact, steals bases and features the best middle infield that you have never heard of with All-Star SS Otto Lopez<\/a> on his way to winning the batting title and 2B Xavier Edwards<\/a> hitting on the good side of .300 as well. C\/1B Liam Hicks<\/a> may knock in 100 runs, though he spends much of his time leading off. RHP Max Meyer<\/a>, 27, is finally delivering the results expected from the 2020 first-round pick, taking a 9-1 record and 2.58 ERA into the break. The Marlins thrive in their spacious home ballpark (31-20) and in day games (24-18).<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara<\/a>, the NL Cy Young winner in 2022, has been the subject of trade discussions for years, but these contending Marlins seem unlikely to move him anytime soon. They might not be among teams looking to add players, as their low payroll hampers them, but how can a franchise that has never won a division title (despite earning two World Series championships!) not aim to improve and make history? Perhaps they add a power bat or rotation depth. Even as currently constructed, these Marlins have the talent to bother the experienced NL behemoths in October. — Karabell<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates<\/p>\n

Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 84-78<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 31.9% | Championship odds: 1.0%<\/p>\n

How they got here: The additions Pittsburgh made to its lineup over the winter seemed to position the Pirates for wild-card contention. The Bucs are indeed in wild-card contention but their path there has been a little unexpected. The offense has been even better than projected and Pittsburgh enters the break tied with the Nationals for the most runs in the NL. The acquisitions of Brandon Lowe<\/a> and Ryan O\u2019Hearn have more than paid off, and the Pirates have gotten better with internal promotions such as power sensation Esmerlyn Valdez<\/a>. The pitching, on the other hand, hasn\u2019t been as dynamic as hoped and that issue starts with the head-scratching mediocrity of Paul Skenes<\/a>. At the bottom line, though, we thought the Pirates would be a factor this season and they very much are.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Pittsburgh owns the NL\u2019s fifth-best run differential, and though that indicator isn\u2019t gospel, it strongly suggests the Pirates are a playoff-level squad. Getting healthy for the stretch run will be crucial — Konnor Griffin<\/a>, Spencer Horwitz<\/a> and Oneil Cruz<\/a> will need to be factors — but the Pirates\u2019 activity around the deadline is important as well. The second-half rotation is well positioned to be better than the first-half version, but if the Pirates can add two or three productive high-leverage arms for the bullpen, the roster will be well set up for an October return. — Doolittle<\/p>\n

St. Louis Cardinals<\/p>\n

Record: 50-45 | Projected final record: 84-78<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 28.2% | Championship odds: 0.5%<\/p>\n

What makes them a contender: The Cardinals seemingly do everything well, which means even if one part of their game falters, they have enough to pick up the slack elsewhere. But that doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019ll take that leap into the next tier. Their floor has gone up this season, but their ceiling remains limited. At the very least, Jordan Walker<\/a> returns from the All-Star break brimming with even more confidence after winning the Home Run Derby and showing he belongs on the national stage. The Cards have performed well in high-leverage moments more often than not — at the plate and on the mound — making them a tough out. Barring regression in those areas, they may hang around the race to the end.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: St. Louis isn\u2019t likely to go big at the deadline. In fact, the Cards\u2019 mini regression before the break might be more informative for Chaim Bloom, indicating they aren\u2019t quite ready for prime time. It doesn\u2019t mean they will fold, but expect them to do no better than maintain their standing in the NL, not necessarily push it forward. — Rogers<\/p>\n

Washington Nationals<\/p>\n

Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 79-83<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.5% | Playoff odds: 4.9% | Championship odds: 0.1%<\/p>\n

What makes them a contender: No team has scored more runs than the Nationals (tied with the Pirates), who are led by a pair of young All-Stars from the long-ago Juan Soto<\/a> trade with the Padres. Leading off is electric OF James Wood<\/a>, pacing toward 47 home runs, a league-leading 132 walks and 215 strikeouts, a mark that could threaten the sport\u2019s record. SS CJ Abrams<\/a> has cooled off after posting a .933 OPS and 47 RBIs through May, but 1B Luis Garcia<\/a> Jr. has taken over since then, slugging .734 with a league-leading 38 RBIs (36 games) since June 1. Yeah, the Nationals do roster pitchers, too, but a 4.75 ERA is among the sport\u2019s worst, and the bullpen blew another save while you were reading this. Every game feels like it could be a fun shootout!<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Nationals fans certainly must be entertained, as there aren\u2019t many 2-1 games for this team. Myriad runs will be scored, and myriad runs will be allowed. It is a dangerous strategy, of course. The Nationals should, at least, bring in more competent relief pitching, as they lead the sport with 27 blown saves (next on the list is only 19!) and should sail past the big league record of 37 soon. They should replace RHPs Miles Mikolas<\/a> and Zack Littell<\/a>, but young, internal options are limited. The Nationals possess enough offensive firepower to make the 2027 playoffs, but they must develop more pitching. — Karabell<\/p>\n

Tier 4: In it, thanks to the muddled ALTexas Rangers<\/p>\n

Record: 49-47 | Projected final record: 84-78<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 50.0% | Playoff odds: 66.6% | Championship odds: 3.0%<\/p>\n

How they get out of the muddled middle: Well, many more games from SS Corey Seager<\/a> would sure be nice. The Rangers had to know, when they signed the former Dodgers stalwart to a 10-year, $325 million contract in the fall of 2021, that he wouldn\u2019t be durable. However, they thought he would at least perform well when healthy. Seager, on the injured list for the third time this season, this time with back inflammation, is hitting .182 with a .666 OPS. That isn\u2019t good enough for a struggling, desperate offense, though there are other culprits too. OF Wyatt Langford<\/a> also keeps getting hurt. IF Josh Smith<\/a>, surprisingly good in 2025, hasn\u2019t been good — or healthy — in 2026. OF Evan Carter<\/a> is hitting .186. The pitching is better, with solid RHPs Jacob deGrom<\/a> and Nathan Eovaldi<\/a>, but they sure aren\u2019t young. Jack Leiter<\/a> and Kumar Rocker<\/a> are, but they have struggled, along with offseason acquisition LHP MacKenzie Gore<\/a>. There is talent here, but it has been inconsistent in performance and has struggled to stay on the field.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Though little has gone right in 2026, the Rangers somehow still lead the AL West. No, it has not been a good division this season, but the Rangers might win it and play in October. This might occur despite a lost season for Seager, and there have been rumors he might be a player considered for a trade as well. There cannot be many franchises lining up to inherit his contract and his back woes, but let\u2019s be fair, a winning player lurks. The Rangers have only one playoff year since 2017 — but they won it all in 2023. If this club slips into October and gets good news on the health front, it can win the AL. Pretty much any team can. — Karabell<\/p>\n

Boston Red Sox<\/p>\n

Record: 46-48 | Projected final record: 82-80<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 51.0% | Championship odds: 1.9%<\/p>\n

How they get out of the muddled middle: Get their two best players healthy. This roster was built around Roman Anthony<\/a>, one of the sport\u2019s bright young stars, and Garrett Crochet<\/a>, a certified ace coming off a Cy Young runner-up campaign. So far, the Red Sox have gotten 130 plate appearances from Anthony and 30 innings from Crochet. Anthony has a torn ligament near the base of his right finger that has flummoxed the Red Sox. He has been out since early May and was recently sent to Florida to continue his rehab. Though chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said Anthony is on the right track, Crochet\u2019s outlook is less positive. The left-hander remains shut down with a shoulder injury — and subsequent lat strain — that landed him on the injured list April 29. The Red Sox rode a nine-game winning streak into the All-Star break to move within half a game of the third AL wild-card spot, but remaining in contention without their two cornerstones will be difficult.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The Red Sox should hang around the playoff picture because the roster remains talented even without the two stars and the AL remains pedestrian. It\u2019s been a remarkable turnaround. The industry expected Boston to trade off players over the next couple of weeks just a few days ago. Now Breslow could increase the team\u2019s postseason chances by adding big league talent by the Aug. 3 deadline. A postseason spot is there for the taking and Boston should do everything possible to snatch one. — Castillo<\/p>\n

Minnesota Twins<\/p>\n

Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 81-81<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 11.7% | Playoff odds: 33.3% | Championship odds: 0.9%<\/p>\n

How they get out of the muddled middle: The Twins are the American League\u2019s slightly less extreme version of the National League\u2019s Washington Nationals<\/a>. They feature a surprisingly explosive offense paired with a pitching staff that has struggled so much that despite all those runs scored, the Twins have spent most of the season chasing .500. Some offensive regression should be expected, which means Minnesota needs to up its run prevention game considerably and not just in the pitching department, as the Twins have featured one of baseball\u2019s worst defenses. It\u2019s a lot to fix in a short period of time, but Minnesota\u2019s competitive first half makes the effort worth doing.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The Twins\u2019 tepid contention is more or less an accident, a by-product of an overachieving group of hitters putting up numbers in the mediocre landscape of this year\u2019s AL. Still, as Minnesota has iterated its roster through the season, the club has gotten gradually better. In this league and division, a playoff slot is in play for the Twins. But the question of whether to trade staff ace Joe Ryan<\/a> looms large because one has to assume that\u2019s been the plan all along. Minnesota\u2019s near-term efforts to fix its run prevention won\u2019t be bolstered by a Ryan deal. — Doolittle<\/p>\n

Houston Astros<\/p>\n

Record: 47-51 | Projected final record: 79-83<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 12.4% | Playoff odds: 23.4% | Championship odds: 0.4%<\/p>\n

How they get out of the muddled middle: It seems difficult to imagine the Astros extracting more production from presumptive AL MVP Yordan Alvarez<\/a>, as he enjoys his best big league season with a ridiculous 1.059 OPS. Hmmm, can Alvarez pitch? The Astros carry a 4.83 ERA into the second half, with RHP Hunter Brown<\/a> and surprise RHP Peter Lambert<\/a> the lone reliable rotation options. Brown, third in AL Cy Young voting a season ago, missed more than two months with a right shoulder strain. He has one more win than you and I do. Newcomer RHP Tatsuya Imai<\/a> has been inconsistent, and he lugs a 6.06 ERA. Houston\u2019s underwhelming outfield, 2B Jose Altuve<\/a>, several starting pitchers and former bullpen ace Bryan Abreu<\/a> must improve.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Incredibly, as bad as the team\u2019s pitching has been and with myriad injuries, the feeble AL West remains quite up for grabs. The Astros may not need to win more games than they lose to win it, and who knows if they will be active at the trade deadline. Pay attention to these Astros because Alvarez and Brown are awesome and, if they can get even league-average pitching, opportunity remains for a postseason bid. But it has been a frustrating season so far. — Karabell<\/p>\n

Detroit Tigers<\/p>\n

Record: 44-52 | Projected final record: 79-83<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 6.6% | Playoff odds: 19.8% | Championship odds: 0.6%<\/p>\n

How they get out of the muddled middle: The Tigers looked like the AL Central\u2019s best team entering the season, but through the end of May, Detroit was 22-38 and one of baseball\u2019s worst teams. A deluge of injuries, especially to the pitching staff, played a big role in that. As Detroit has gotten healthier, the Tigers have played better and, thanks to the AL muddle, reached the break in striking distance of the division lead, albeit from a fourth-place perspective. The Tigers have outscored their opponents this season and, despite the pitching woes, have been tough to score against. A collective regression by the offense to support dynamic rookie Kevin McGonigle<\/a> might be enough by itself to keep Detroit in the running all season. That is unless there is a certain key subtraction made to the big league roster …<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: … which would be the case if Detroit deals Tarik Skubal<\/a>. The Tigers\u2019 question about whether to trade Skubal is the most captivating of all deadline-related mysteries. If the Tigers start the second half poorly, that might solve the dilemma. But if they don\u2019t? Detroit would net a draft pick if it loses Skubal in free agency, but it could surely add a lot more future value by trading him. In fact, it\u2019s not hard to envision the Tigers deepening their current roster if the right return in a Skubal deal is dangled before them. It\u2019s a dynamic situation but we begin with baby steps: It\u2019s on the Tigers\u2019 players to start rolling out of the break to put as much pressure as possible on their front office to keep Skubal in hopes of making a real second-half push. — Doolittle<\/p>\n

Baltimore Orioles<\/p>\n

Record: 46-51 | Projected final record: 77-85<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 12.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%<\/p>\n

How they get out of the muddled middle: Dream of more runs. One could make the argument that every regular in the lineup is capable of better numbers the rest of the way. Gunnar Henderson<\/a> is too good to be posting an OPS below league average. Same with Jackson Holliday<\/a>. Taylor Ward<\/a> is getting on base but not hitting many home runs. Samuel Basallo<\/a> is a 21-year-old starting to figure things out. Coby Mayo<\/a> needs to figure things out. After a slow start in April, Pete Alonso<\/a> has been a consistent power and RBI threat since. The Orioles are 11th in runs per game, but given the pitching issues they will probably need to climb into the top the rest of the way to climb out of the pack.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The Orioles are one of the many teams figuring out what to do at the trade deadline. In their case, it\u2019s more likely they\u2019ll trade players or stand pat. They do have players teams would be interested in, most notably impending free agents Ward, Trevor Rogers<\/a> and Andrew Kittredge<\/a>. There is always a market for starting pitchers and Rogers seems back on track with a 1.73 ERA over his past seven starts. Given the lack of good hitters who will be available, Ward also could bring a nice return. After opening the second half in Houston, the Orioles will quickly learn where they\u2019re at with series against the red-hot Red Sox, Braves, Tigers and Phillies leading into the deadline. — Schoenfield<\/p>\n

Toronto Blue Jays<\/p>\n

Record: 45-51 | Projected final record: 77-85<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 10.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%<\/p>\n

How they get out of the muddled middle: It all starts with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a>, whose persistent slump has been perhaps the sport\u2019s biggest mystery. Guerrero looked like the best hitter on the planet in last year\u2019s World Series. But he has yet to hit a single home run at home in 2026 and has totaled only six of them all season. That\u2019s not the only reason the Blue Jays\u2019 offense has gone from overwhelming last fall to uninspiring this summer, but it\u2019s easily the biggest one. Their rotation, meanwhile, ranks 21st in ERA, with Trey Yesavage<\/a> struggling with his control of late and Shane Bieber<\/a> still reestablishing himself after a prolonged absence.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Even at six games below .500, the Blue Jays find themselves a mere 2\u00bd games out of a playoff spot in the diluted American League. If they approach the Aug. 3 trade deadline as a team looking to add players, they will probably seek a starting pitcher. Whether that happens, though, could be determined by the first homestand after the break, which will see the Blue Jays face the upstart White Sox and the dominant Rays. They need a good showing, and it all goes back to one man: Guerrero. He alone can change the dynamic of this entire team, but his .703 OPS ranks 110th among qualified hitters. He needs to get going — now. — Gonzalez<\/p>\n

Tier 5: Playing their way out of contentionArizona Diamondbacks<\/p>\n

Record: 49-47 | Projected final record: 83-79<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 25.5% | Championship odds: 0.4%<\/p>\n

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Pitching. The Diamondbacks were counting on front-line starter Corbin Burnes<\/a> and back-end reliever A.J. Puk<\/a> to provide major boosts around midseason, but they each suffered setbacks to push their return out further. The rotation has also seen Zac Gallen<\/a>, Ryne Nelson<\/a> and Michael Soroka<\/a> land on the injured list in recent weeks. In the midst of that, the offense — with the exception of Corbin Carroll<\/a>, a very worthy All-Star — has underperformed, ranking 25th in the majors in OPS and 19th in runs per game. Given all that, it\u2019s quite impressive to see Arizona with a winning record.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The D-backs have received a combined .604 OPS from their first basemen and designated hitters this season, dead last in the majors. General manager Mike Hazen would love to supplement those two spots before the trade deadline (as well as his pitching staff). But first, the D-backs need to keep winning. More specifically, they need more out of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.<\/a>, who hasn\u2019t looked healthy coming off knee surgery. And Ketel Marte<\/a> and Geraldo Perdomo<\/a>, their two middle-infield stars. And high-powered reliever Justin Martinez<\/a>, who needs to be sharp in his return from Tommy John surgery. And veteran starter Merrill Kelly<\/a>, who has a 5.38 ERA. — Gonzalez<\/p>\n

San Diego Padres<\/p>\n

Record: 48-48 | Projected final record: 80-82<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 9.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%<\/p>\n

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Last season\u2019s Padres, led by core offensive stars Fernando Tatis Jr.<\/a> and Manny Machado<\/a>, were about league average in runs and OPS+, and they won 90 games for the second consecutive season. This season\u2019s Padres are not doing that. No team has scored fewer runs. Tatis, having drastically altered his plate mechanics and strategy, has hit only five home runs. Machado\u2019s batting average finally slipped past .200 on Sunday. Journeyman 1B Ty France<\/a> leads the way in OPS. It wasn\u2019t supposed to be this way, but the Padres, wasting an amazing Mason Miller<\/a> season, aren\u2019t playoff bound if they can\u2019t score.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Tatis hit 25 home runs and delivered 6.1 WAR last season. He boasts only 1.1 WAR today. Many would like to presume the many underachieving Padres hitters will suddenly revert to the relevant numbers on the backs of their baseball cards (Jackson Merrill<\/a>, Xander Bogaerts<\/a>, Jake Cronenworth<\/a>, too), but it\u2019s mid-July already. Why would things suddenly change? There isn\u2019t much first-year manager Craig Stammen can do here. Whether his front office makes big news at the trade deadline or not, it will make headlines. — Karabell<\/p>\n

Athletics<\/p>\n

Record: 41-55 | Projected final record: 69-93<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 0.3% | Championship odds: 0.0%<\/p>\n

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: We could point to the injuries but DH Brent Rooker<\/a>, aiming for his fourth consecutive 30-home run campaign, wasn\u2019t producing much before a knee injury ended his season in June. First baseman Nick Kurtz<\/a> (thumb) may or may not be out for long. Really, the problem is the bloated 5.24 ERA, second worst to the Rockies. West Sacramento has been anything but kind to this franchise in Year 2 in Northern California, as the Athletics<\/a> drag a 19-28 home mark into the break. A move to Las Vegas can\u2019t come soon enough for a franchise lacking identity, but without more pitching, which has led to an astounding 24-41 record since May 1, things will remain bleak for a while.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The Athletics<\/a> certainly aren\u2019t eliminated from the AL West or AL wild-card races, but it is tough to make a run with RHPs Aaron Civale<\/a> and Jack Perkins<\/a> and struggling LHP Jeffrey Springs<\/a> (league-leading 26 home runs!) among the rotation options. The future looks bright for young LHP Gage Jump<\/a>, only nine starts into his big league career, but that\u2019s about it. Let\u2019s hope Kurtz and rejuvenated Zack Gelof<\/a> return to health soon and at least the Athletics<\/a> return to their intriguing, overachieving ways of 2025, when fun shootouts and flirting with a .500 record were all the rage. — Karabell<\/p>\n

Tier 6: Eyes on 2027Cincinnati Reds<\/p>\n

Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 71-91<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.1% | Championship odds: 0.0%<\/p>\n

How they got here: It might be a different story if the Reds were in the AL Central or AL West, but they\u2019ve gone 6-22 within the NL Central, plummeting to last place following last year\u2019s wild card. It\u2019s been a well-rounded team effort: below-average offense while ranking third in the majors in most strikeouts; below-average pitching, ranking 23rd in ERA; bad defense, ranking 28th in defensive runs saved. The injury that kept Hunter Greene<\/a> out for most of the first half certainly didn\u2019t help and now Nick Lodolo<\/a> is on the IL, but take away All-Star Chase Burns<\/a> and the pitching has been a big disappointment.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The Reds have several players heading to free agency, although none are regarded as top trade targets: pitcher Brady Singer<\/a>, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe<\/a> and relievers Brock Burke<\/a> and Caleb Ferguson<\/a>. The Reds need to be realistic about where they\u2019re at in baseball\u2019s best division and look to trade all those guys. But they also need to use the second half to make some evaluations on whether guys like Ke\u2019Bryan Hayes and Matt McLain<\/a> are going to be part of the future. — Schoenfield<\/p>\n

Kansas City Royals<\/p>\n

Record: 38-59 | Projected final record: 65-97<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%<\/p>\n

How they got here: On paper, the Royals seemed well positioned for contention as long as the 26-man Opening Day roster stayed largely intact and performed, as a whole, near its forecast. The opposite has happened, and with injuries, underperformance and aging, the wheels have come off in Kansas City. Despite Bobby Witt Jr.<\/a> putting up MVP-level production, the Royals enter the break tied with the Angels for the worst record in baseball, and the Halos have a better run differential than Kansas City. Such a collapse is always hard to trace to a single factor. But the Royals have been baseball\u2019s worst high-leverage club, a failing that has afflicted the team on both sides of the ball, and it was a cascade of soul-crushing losses early in the season that started the momentum of the Royals\u2019 slide.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: The presence of Witt means the focus in the second half will probably turn toward setting up for 2027, more so than a more comprehensive reset with a longer time horizon. If that\u2019s the approach, the Royals seem unlikely to unload veteran starters Michael Wacha<\/a> and Seth Lugo<\/a>, if only because if Kansas City wants to run it back next season, it will need rotation stability that otherwise might be hard to find if Wacha and\/or Lugo are gone. The Royals will probably deal on the margins but, really, they aren\u2019t set up well for an aggressive deadline even if they are in subtraction mode. A looming question over the club, now and going forward, will be whether franchise cornerstone Salvador Perez<\/a> has much, if anything, left. — Doolittle<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Angels<\/p>\n

Record: 38-59 | Projected final record: 64-98<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%<\/p>\n

How they got here: By continuing to refuse to launch a proper rebuild. The Angels have not won a postseason game since 2009. They have not reached the postseason since 2014. They have not recorded a winning record since 2015. It\u2019s been more than a decade of mediocrity or worse. This year falls into the \u201cor worse\u201d category. The Angels sit in last place again, tied for the worst record in the majors, with one of the worst farm systems in the sport. General manager Perry Minisian was fired for the failures last month, but he hasn\u2019t been the constant during this dismal stretch. That\u2019s owner Arte Moreno, who will need to change the organization\u2019s strategy to reclaim a spot in October.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Moreno hired former longtime Cardinals executive John Mozeliak as a consultant to the baseball operations department with Minisian\u2019s dismissal. Whether Moreno will allow Mozeliak to operate aggressively at the trade deadline and convert veterans into young talent remains to be seen. Impending free agents Jorge Soler<\/a>, Kirby Yates<\/a> and Brent Suter<\/a> will be available. The question is whether players with years of control remaining, such as Reid Detmers<\/a>, Jose Soriano<\/a>, Jo Adell<\/a> and Zach Neto<\/a>, will join them on the trading block. The Angels could transform their outlook with an infusion of young talent — or they could take the less aggressive approach and remain on this treadmill of mediocrity. — Castillo<\/p>\n

San Francisco Giants<\/p>\n

Record: 41-55 | Projected final record: 70-92<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%<\/p>\n

How they got here: Let\u2019s start with the Giants\u2019 biggest, most expensive star in Rafael Devers<\/a>, who finished April slashing .207\/.248\/.289. By that point, the Giants were 13-18. Devers has since recovered. The team that surrounds him has not. The roster, built by an inexperienced president of baseball operations in Buster Posey, hasn\u2019t been good enough to overcome anything less than star production from Devers, Willy Adames<\/a> and Matt Chapman<\/a>. And rookie manager Tony Vitello hasn\u2019t been adept enough to keep the Giants from spiraling. From bungling Pride Night to nasty fights in the stands, awkward pinch running moments and an ace pitcher lashing out on social media, the Giants have seen it all this season — and it\u2019s all been bad.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: Trading as many players as this roster will allow. Posey might want nothing more than to clear the decks and start over, but he probably won\u2019t be able to. Devers, Adames and Chapman are owed a combined $336 million over these next four years, with Devers signed for another three thereafter. Moving any of those deals at this time of year — or in the offseason, even — will be exceedingly difficult. Instead, the Giants will probably settle for a nice return on starter Robbie Ray<\/a> and second baseman Luis Arraez<\/a>, both enjoying really solid years, and bide their time until 2027, which can\u2019t possibly be worse — right? — Gonzalez<\/p>\n

New York Mets<\/p>\n

Record: 40-57 | Projected final record: 67-95<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%<\/p>\n

How they got here: Injuries and a botched offseason makeover. One could argue the Mets, with a CBT payroll of more than $375 million, are in the running for the worst team, dollar for dollar, ever. A team that expensive shouldn\u2019t be 40-57 sitting in last place, but that\u2019s where the Mets are. Injuries have ravaged the roster, but a team with these resources should be able to at least stay afloat. Consider the Red Sox, who are two games under .500 without their two best players for most of the season and a CBT payroll more than $100 million below the Mets\u2019 operation. There have been bright spots. Juan Soto<\/a> has posted MVP-level production after missing two weeks with a calf injury in April. Rookie outfielders Carson Benge<\/a> and A.J. Ewing<\/a> look like foundational pieces. Luke Weaver<\/a> hasn\u2019t allowed an earned run since April 30. But the Mets simply haven\u2019t been good enough.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: David Stearns will be busy over the next few weeks dismantling a roster he overhauled during the offseason. The list of players potentially on the move to replenish a farm system that has taken a step back this season is long. Freddy Peralta<\/a>, Brooks Raley<\/a>, A.J. Minter<\/a>, Tyrone Taylor<\/a> and Weaver are certainly among the candidates. Would Stearns look to trade Francisco Lindor<\/a>, who has a full no-trade clause? That would register as seismic. Whatever happens before Aug. 3, the rest of the season is about figuring out who can help in 2027 and beyond. — Castillo<\/p>\n

Colorado Rockies<\/p>\n

Record: 39-59 | Projected final record: 63-99<\/p>\n

Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%<\/p>\n

How they got here: The Rockies may lose 100 games this year, but they certainly won\u2019t lose 119. That, at least, is progress. Overall, in the first year under a new front office led by Paul DePodesta, the Rockies have played a more competitive brand of baseball as they move into a far more modern-age approach. Their young catcher, Hunter Goodman<\/a>, became an All-Star. Young corner infielders TJ Rumfield<\/a> and Kyle Karros<\/a> have been major contributors. But the Rockies still can\u2019t pitch. They own a 5.44 ERA, worst in the majors. And their franchise shortstop, Ezequiel Tovar<\/a>, is in the midst of a woeful season offensively.<\/p>\n

What to expect from here: With offense at a premium ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline, the Rockies will get a lot of interest in Mickey Moniak<\/a> and Jake McCarthy<\/a>, two of their more established outfielders. And they have the flexibility to move them. The Rockies have seen center fielder Cole Carrigg<\/a> come up from the minor leagues and produce. Charlie Condon and Zac Veen<\/a> are on the precipice of joining him. Yes, the Rockies want to build a winning culture and don\u2019t want to see another season go completely sideways. But they also need starting pitching. Moniak and McCarthy, both out of options but controllable beyond 2026, might help them get some. — Gonzalez<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"That the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record and the largest division lead in baseball as the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":805668,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[10381,9012,3307,49,48,283216,155383,462,468,6769,82,283217,116883],"class_list":["post-805667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-al","tag-american-league","tag-baseball","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-chc","tag-gettyimages","tag-mlb","tag-national-league","tag-nl","tag-sports","tag-teamid-141","tag-tor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/805667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=805667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/805667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/805668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=805667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=805667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=805667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}