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Yordan Alvarez has an ideal setup to hit his 32nd home run of the 2026 season tonight.<\/p>\n
Getty Images<\/p>\n
The MLB best home run bets limped into the All-Star break with four incorrect home run props in the final two articles. Still, the season\u2019s record sits at 16-57, with three no-bets for players who didn\u2019t start on the day their home run prop was suggested. <\/p>\n
The record might not appear to be anything special, but it\u2019s rock-solid for long-shot bets. As a result, the season\u2019s profit for MLB best home run bets is $642 for anyone who bet $100 on each of the home run props at the listed odds.<\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s MLB slate is stacked, featuring 15 games. There are many home run props to choose from, but two left-handed batters with favorable matchups and homer-friendly park factors have the most appealing home run bets, albeit with chalky odds.<\/p>\n
MLB Best Home Run BetsYordan Alvarez (Houston Astros – OF)<\/p>\n
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+262) at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/p>\n
Yordan Alvarez<\/a> is one of MLB\u2019s best home run hitters, and he ranks second in home runs this year, with 31. The 29-year-old slugger<\/a> has hit 23 of his 31 home runs in 310 plate appearances against righties, 16 of them in 200 at home and 12 in 154 against right-handed pitching at home.<\/p>\n Alvarez has jaw-dropping batted-ball data. Among 256 qualified hitters this season<\/a>, Alvarez is second in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.4%), seventh in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.6%), 10th in hard-hit rate (53.2%), tied for 20th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.8 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (118.5 mph), sixth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (42.9%) and 24th in steepest launch angle (19.8%). <\/p>\n Alvarez has the best matchup to hit a home run on Friday\u2019s MLB slate. Dean Kremer\u2019s 3.68 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR\/9) this year are the most among today\u2019s probable starters<\/a>. Kremer<\/a> has permitted nine home runs in four starts, allowing three, one, one and four in those turns. The 30-year-old righty<\/a> has allowed seven home runs to 62 left-handed batters faced in 2026.<\/p>\n Alvarez\u2019s chances of hitting a home run will also get a lift from playing at home. Daikin Park\u2019s 115 park factor for home runs<\/a> since 2025 is tied for the fifth-highest mark in MLB. Alvarez should make the most of the perfect setup and tap into his immense power for a home run tonight.<\/p>\n Mickey Moniak has hit 24 home runs against righties at home since 2025.<\/p>\n Getty ImagesMickey Moniak (Colorado Rockies – OF)<\/p>\n Over 0.5 Home Runs (+271) at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/p>\n Mickey Moniak has the platoon advantage at home tonight. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has had both substantial home-and-road splits and lefty-righty splits. Fortunately for him tonight, he\u2019s excelled against righties at home. In 334 plate appearances against righties at home since 2025, Moniak<\/a> has hit 24 home runs, with a 22.1% line-drive rate, 46.6% fly-ball rate, 20.7% home run per fly-ball rate (HR\/FB) and 51.8% pull rate.<\/p>\n Moniak also has decent batted-ball info. Among 256 qualified batters in 2026, Moniak is tied for 43rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.4%), tied for 50th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (12.4%), 112th in hard-hit rate (42.5%), tied for 134th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (92.9 mph) and sixth in steepest launch-angle (22.6 degrees).<\/p>\n Moniak has a mouthwatering matchup against Brady Singer at homer-friendly Coors Field. Singer\u2019s 2.01 HR\/9 are the third most among today\u2019s probable starters. Singer<\/a> has allowed 20 home runs in 18 starts this season, coughing up at least one in 12 and permitting multiple home runs in six. In addition, Singer<\/a> has allowed 14 homers to 251 left-handed batters and 10 to 197 batters on the road this year. <\/p>\n