{"id":807821,"date":"2026-07-17T12:33:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T12:33:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/807821\/"},"modified":"2026-07-17T12:33:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T12:33:12","slug":"el-nino-is-here-and-its-already-looking-like-it-could-be-mind-blowing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/807821\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o is here, and it\u2019s already looking like it could be ‘mind-blowing’"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Text<\/p>\n

Listen to this article<\/p>\n

Estimated 4 minutes<\/p>\n

The audio version of this article is generated by AI-based technology. Mispronunciations can occur. We are working with our partners to continually review and improve the results.<\/p>\n

The long-anticipated El Ni\u00f1o is here, and already it\u2019s living up to the hype.<\/p>\n

In the spring, climate scientists had forecasted an El Ni\u00f1o to develop in the central Pacific region.<\/p>\n

As the months progressed, more and more of the models forecasted a particularly strong or \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o, as some people like to call it. But scientists also warned that it was too early to know for sure.<\/p>\n

In its monthly update in June<\/a>, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued an El Ni\u00f1o advisory, confirming that the warmer conditions had developed in the specific part of the Pacific Ocean known as Ni\u00f1o 3.4.<\/p>\n

\"AThis illustration shows the Ni\u00f1o regions in the Pacific Ocean. (NOAA)<\/p>\n

In order to be considered an El Ni\u00f1o, temperatures in that zone need to be 0.5 C above the average.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ocean temperatures are now close to 2 C above average. And we’re not even close to the peak yet.<\/p>\n

This is the warmest on record that region has ever been at this time of year.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the sort of traditional Nino 3.4 region, we’re a bit above 2 C, which is generally seen as the threshold for a very strong or, some people don’t like this term, but a super El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with Berkeley Earth, a non-profit climate analysis organization.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cSo, effectively, we’re already touching a very strong El Ni\u00f1o conditions, and it’s early July still.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"AThis graphic illustrates the rapid rise of sea surface temperatures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region in the Pacific Ocean. (Climate Central)<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a are part of a larger, natural cyclical cycle called the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which occurs in a specific part of the Pacific Ocean.\u00a0<\/p>\n

La Ni\u00f1a brings cooler temperatures in that region while El Ni\u00f1o brings warmer temperatures.<\/p>\n

Hausfather said there are forecasts currently expect the peak of the El Ni\u00f1o to occur in October, though the bulk of available models suggest it\u2019s more likely it will peak in November or December.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo we have a long way to go. We’re already brushing super El Ni\u00f1o territory, and we may well be in unchartered waters later this year,” he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe might end up breaking the previous El Ni\u00f1o record by a truly mind-blowing margin.”<\/p>\n

‘El Ni\u00f1o is no joke’<\/p>\n

The strongest El Ni\u00f1o in recent years was the one in 2015-2016, where the ocean temperature anomaly was roughly 2.75 C. It\u2019s believed that there was a comparable one in 1877-1878<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nat Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA\u2019s geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory, said the transition from a La Ni\u00f1a to El Ni\u00f1o has been very quick.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe were in a La Ni\u00f1a last winter, which was cooler than average conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific. And now if we have a very strong El Ni\u00f1o forecast. That’s a very rapid change over the course of one year,\u201d he said. \u201cSo why are we seeing such a big change this year? I think it’s still an open question.\u201d<\/p>\n

WATCH | What exactly is a ‘super’ El Ni\u00f1o? And what does it mean for you?:\"\"<\/p>\n

What exactly is a \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o? And what does it mean for you?<\/p>\n

Some climate models predict 2026 will be an El Ni\u00f1o year \u2014 and that it’ll be a particularly strong one. CBC\u2019s Nick Logan breaks down what that means, and what Canadians can expect.<\/p>\n

Hausfather said that, when models first showed\u00a0the potential of an El Ni\u00f1o being as strong as 4 C above average, he thought that they couldn’t be right. But, now, months later, it does seem to be a greater possibility.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe very fact that models right now are predicting a peak of around 3.6 C when the strongest El Ni\u00f1o in history, including arguably the one in the late 1800s, was only 2.75 C, is kind of mind boggling.”<\/p>\n

Could this be due to climate change?<\/p>\n

Johnson said that, while there have been fewer neutral years in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and there have been bigger swings between El Ni\u00f1os and La Ni\u00f1as, it’s not clear if or how climate change could be playing a role.<\/p>\n

“It’s still a topic that I think we haven’t quite reached scientific consensus yet.”<\/p>\n

Some impacts that concern Hausfather, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical issues, is food security in tropical regions \u2014 which are expected to be affected by drought in coming months. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in Canada, the effects will be seen in the winter months, bringing milder temperatures, but also drier conditions, something that is of great concern for wildfire development in the spring in Western Canada.<\/p>\n

“I think we should prepare for some pretty significant impacts,” Hausfather said. “El Ni\u00f1o is no joke, both for agriculture, for the natural world, for ocean ecosystems.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Listen to this article Estimated 4 minutes The audio version of this article is generated by AI-based technology.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":807822,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[43,44,41,39,42,40],"class_list":["post-807821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/807821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=807821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/807821\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/807822"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=807821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=807821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=807821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}