Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)<\/a>. It\u2019s already been done. Given that they\u2019ve been able to land the plane once. I don\u2019t see why they can\u2019t do it again,\u201d says Papic.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RSDOQZYJFWZ63SLKFLP57NXHS4.jpg\")
Firefighters work as smoke rises outside a damaged warehouse in an industrial area in Al Rayyan, Qatar, following an Iranian strike, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo) Firefighters work as smoke rises outside a damaged warehouse in an industrial area in Al Rayyan, Qatar, following an Iranian strike, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo) <\/p>\n
He says the experience has reduced the probability of a worse case scenario in the eyes of investors, but the worst case scenario is not completely off the table. <\/p>\n
He highlights that the recent MOU only brought 40 per cent of the blocked oil traffic back online, leaving 60 per cent of the disruption unresolved.<\/p>\n
And the U.S. has already depleted its Strategic Petroleum Reserves to combat price spikes, dragging it down to historic lows. <\/p>\n
” We\u2019re basically plumbing the bottom,\u201d says Papic. <\/p>\n
\u201cSo somebody listening to me right now, they\u2019re like, \u201dWell, oil prices should then be higher. No, no, no, no. They should be lower because the constraints to conflict are greater.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hormuz traffic expected to recover<\/p>\n
Papic expects traffic through the strait to begin recovering over the next two weeks, particularly as oil prices approach US$90 per barrel.<\/p>\n
While traffic now has fallen to zero, he says some ships had continued moving through the route earlier while Iran and the U.S. exchanged missile attacks.<\/p>\n
He also says gasoline prices had not fallen by as much as crude prices\u201c so the pressure on Trump remains.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re now, I think, pretty much at the peak of this Hormuz War 2.0, if we want to call it that, post MOU conflict,\u201d says Papic.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o could push wheat and cocoa prices higher<\/p>\n
Papic also warns that a strengthening El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern could put pressure on agricultural prices, particularly wheat and cocoa.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe think those two are going to go up the most,\u201d says Papic.<\/p>\n
He says wheat prices could create political and fiscal pressure in countries like Egypt and Turkey that rely heavily on imports and lack the financial resources to cushion consumers from higher food costs.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you\u2019re Saudi Arabia, if you\u2019re the United Arab Emirates, you sell a lot of oil, you have a current account surplus, you can accommodate this increase in prices, so you can deal with it,\u201d says Papic. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Marko Papic, chief investment strategist at BCA Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss agricultural commodities ahead of potential…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":808987,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[45,49,48],"class_list":["post-808986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/808986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=808986"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/808986\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/808987"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=808986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=808986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=808986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/FCVOY45GFZAUXOD57BQSABCDTM.jpg\")
Two traditional dhows sail by a large container ship in the Strait of Hormuz Friday, May 19, 2023. (AP Photo\/Jon Gambrell) Two traditional dhows sail by a large container ship in the Strait of Hormuz Friday, May 19, 2023. (AP Photo\/Jon Gambrell) <\/p>\n