$100 affordability rebate<\/a> for Albertans to help offset higher gasoline prices as oil prices have climbed.\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784353692_641_default.jpg\")
Nate Horner, who was Alberta’s finance minister at the time, speaks to media on Feb. 26 while introducing the provincial budget, which forecast a $9.4-billion deficit. (Manuel Carrillos Avalos\/Radio-Canada)Surplus possible, but not guaranteed\u00a0<\/p>\n
Economists caution it\u2019s far too soon to assume Alberta will finish the fiscal year in the black.<\/p>\n
\u201cA surplus depends both on revenue and on spending,\u201d Tombe said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe’ve had this affordability measure, for example. We also might have decreases in revenue elsewhere. The world’s an uncertain place. Trade disruptions with the United States are a negative for Alberta as well. Nothing is guaranteed until the end of the fiscal year.\u201d<\/p>\n
Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist for Servus Credit Union, said it’s clear the improvement in the fiscal situation in Alberta is “100 per cent due to higher oil prices.”<\/p>\n
\u201cYes, the Alberta economy is doing relatively well compared to the rest of the country, but it’s not what is driving us to have to swing from a relatively big deficit to a big surplus,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The province said it expects Alberta\u2019s fiscal position to strengthen as higher oil prices boost resource revenues, but remains cautious.<\/p>\n
\u201cGiven the volatility of oil markets and Alberta\u2019s continued economic growth and success, we anticipate improvements from the projected $9.4 billion deficit in Budget 2026,\u201d said Juliana Rodriguez,\u00a0press secretary for Finance Minister Jason Nixon, in a statement. <\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, we have only been in this fiscal year for just over three months, and we cannot base projections for the entire 2026\u201327 fiscal year on recently elevated oil prices.”<\/p>\n
She said the province would update its projections, if necessary, in its next quarterly report at the end of August.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Volatile markets could change the picture<\/p>\n
Tombe said the biggest risk remains the volatility of oil markets.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019ve risen over the past few months. They could very well fall over the next several months.\u201d<\/p>\n
If oil prices average below about $68 US a barrel for the rest of the fiscal year, Tombe said Alberta would end the year back in a deficit.<\/p>\n
\u201cNothing is guaranteed in terms of the current fiscal outlook for the province. So we really shouldn\u2019t be counting our fiscal chickens before they hatch next year.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Listen to this article Estimated 4 minutes The audio version of this article is generated by AI-based technology.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":809457,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[45,49,48],"class_list":["post-809456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/809456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=809456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/809456\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/809457"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=809456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=809456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=809456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"Text](\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/a\/assets\/texttospeech.svg\")
<\/p>\n![\"man](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784353691_859_default.jpg\")
Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary, says Alberta’s finances have improved significantly since the budget was tabled, but warns it’s too early to count on a surplus because oil prices remain volatile. (Ina Sidhu\/CBC News)<\/p>\n