The low birth rate across developed countries has become a\u00a0much-discussed phenomenon,<\/a>\u00a0with everything from dating apps, parenting styles, and in the words of U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance, \u201cchildless cat ladies,\u201d at fault, with much of the discourse placing the blame on the shoulders of women.<\/p>\n But there\u2019s a growing body of evidence that suggests housing costs, and rising costs in general, are a big part of the picture. In Toronto, housing prices and rents have dropped from pandemic peaks, but\u00a0they both soared over the last couple of decades with home ownership still out of reach for many.<\/p>\n \u201cHousing prices and cost of living are at the heart of what we are seeing in recent years in terms of the fertility decline,\u201d said Choi.<\/p>\n The solution is not as simple as telling young people to move to the suburbs\u00a0if they want to have kids,\u00a0as with such a low birth rate, Toronto risks aging faster than other parts of the country \u2014 without enough working people to support the city.<\/p>\n And experts warn ignoring that\u00a0housing costs are\u00a0a\u00a0crucial piece of the puzzle will only make the problem worse.<\/p>\n Data ties high housing costs to fewer babies<\/p>\n There is evidence from outside of Canada that suggests high home\u00a0prices and a rapid rise in housing costs are linked with declines in fertility, Choi said.<\/p>\n One study from Brazil<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0a random housing lottery\u00a0found winning increased the probability of having children for people aged 20 to 25 by 32 per cent, and the probability of having more children by\u00a033 per cent.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
These \u2018missing middle\u2019 units are benefiting from the HST rebate, but experts say builders are up <\/p>\n Another study found mortgage rates<\/a> impacted fertility in the U.S. and U.K., with lower interest rates associated with slightly more children.<\/p>\n And in this country,\u00a0a 2022 survey<\/a> from Statistics Canada found 37 per cent of people aged 15 to 49 did not believe they could afford to have a child in the next three years, while\u00a031 per cent believed they would not have access to the housing they needed.<\/p>\n Benjamin K. Couillard, who recently completed a PhD in the University of Toronto\u2019s Department of Economics, said it can be hard to untangle the cost of housing from other factors. But he\u00a0recently created a mathematical model using U.S. Census Bureau data that\u00a0found that, controlling for other factors, rising costs, including housing costs, since 1990 are responsible for 11 per cent fewer children. <\/p>\n \u201cLooking at data in the United States, we have this big decrease in fertility just in the last two decades,\u201d\u00a0said Couillard, who detailed his findings in a recent paper, titled \u201cBuild Baby Build,\u201d which he plans to submit to a peer-reviewed journal in the next year. \u201cWhat I find is that if we didn\u2019t have rising housing costs during this period, then that decline in fertility would have been half as large.\u201d<\/p>\n Housing costs, along with economic insecurity, and prolonged time spent in school, can force people into delaying having children, Choi said, something she refers to as \u201csocial infertility.\u201d<\/p>\n In 2024, the average age of Canadian mothers at the birth of their child reached an all-time high of 31.8 years,\u00a0according to Statistics Canada.<\/p>\n The same data was not available for fathers, but data from 2021<\/a> shows dads were on average 33.6 years old\u00a0at the birth of their child,\u00a0and the share of dads 35 and older has nearly doubled in 30 years, from 20.2 per cent in 1991 to 39.5 in 2021.<\/p>\n Dads from B.C. and Ontario, two provinces with notoriously high housing costs, were the oldest,\u00a0at 34.4 and 34 respectively.<\/p>\n The older people get, the harder it is to have biological kids, Choi noted, which can lead to inequality on \u201cwho has children and when they have children.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWe kind of felt like you got to pull the trigger,\u201d said Rachel Cairns, who became pregnant with Henry in 2025.<\/p>\n Sophie Bouquillon\/Toronto Star<\/p>\n The tick of the biological clock was something that Cairns was keenly aware of.<\/p>\n At 31, she had an abortion after an unplanned pregnancy. Her financial and living situation were a huge part of why.<\/p>\n \u201cBefore I peed on the stick, it was like, I know what I\u2019ll be doing,\u201d she recalled. \u201cThe circumstances were so not right.\u201d<\/p>\n The experience made her re-evaluate what it would take to become a mom. If she couldn\u2019t make it work at 31, something needed to change.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIt was a bit of a wake-up call,\u201d\u00a0she remembered.\u00a0<\/p>\n As a freelance actress and writer, she wouldn\u2019t be eligible for a traditional maternity leave, and her husband\u2019s work didn\u2019t offer paternity leave. As the years ticked by, they were\u00a0still in their one-bedroom apartment. But they knew time was running out to make a decision.<\/p>\n \u201cWe kind of felt like you got to pull the trigger,\u201d she said. \u201cOtherwise you\u2019re just risking too much.\u201d<\/p>\n Low fertility puts the city at risk<\/p>\n The risks, if this urban baby bust continues, go far beyond the fate of individual families.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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