{"id":816481,"date":"2026-07-21T14:02:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T14:02:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/816481\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T14:02:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T14:02:14","slug":"why-one-analytics-model-graded-the-oilers-off-season-poorly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/816481\/","title":{"rendered":"Why one analytics model graded the Oilers off-season poorly"},"content":{"rendered":"

While there are still two months until the puck drops on opening night for the Edmonton Oilers<\/a>, we\u2019ve reached the point in the NHL off-season where most of the action is behind us. The big trades have happened, the marquee free agents have signed, and projections for 2026-27 have begun.Every year,\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s analytics expert, Dom Luszczyszyn, releases his rankings for the most improved teams during the offseason. This year, the\u00a0Oilers rank 25th<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn the roster, Ryan Shea makes a lot of sense replacing Darnell Nurse, given the price difference,\u201d wrote Luszczyszyn. \u201cFrederik Andersen, when healthy, is an upgrade in net too. But the Oilers could still use a middle-six forward to replace Jack Roslovic, even if he was incredibly inconsistent.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a rough summer for the Pacific Division \u2014 the San Jose Sharks were the only team ranked inside the top 10 most improved, while the Anaheim Ducks, Vegas Golden Knights, Los Angeles Kings, and Edmonton Oilers all ranked in the bottom 10.<\/p>\n

A division so bad it was labelled a \u201cpillow fight\u201d by Oilers captain Connor McDavid<\/a> last season has become even weaker.<\/p>\n

The Ducks, Golden Knights, and Kings all lost major pieces without acquiring replacements. It\u2019s no mystery why they ended up near the bottom of the rankings. But Edmonton\u2019s 25th-place ranking is a little surprising given the overwhelmingly positive reception to Stan Bowman\u2019s work over the last month.<\/p>\n

Swapping out Connor Ingram for a pair of high-upside goaltenders in Frederik Andersen and Devon Levi is intriguing. And adding Ryan Shea<\/a> to replace Darnell Nurse<\/a> is a solid bet given Shea\u2019s attributes and career trajectory.<\/p>\n

So why the low ranking? Part of the reason is the set of criteria Luszczyszyn uses.<\/p>\n

What analytics model ranked the Oilers so low in off-season improvements?<\/p>\n

Luszczyszyn\u2019s most improved team ranking isn\u2019t based on subjective opinion; it\u2019s entirely based on analytics. Specifically, a metric he created called Net Rating.<\/p>\n

Net Rating is used to evaluate a player\u2019s overall impact on their team\u2019s success, factoring in offensive and defensive results, play-driving, and other relevant aspects.\u00a0Using this strict metric, the Oilers\u2019 roster has experienced a minus-8 decline in Net Rating.<\/p>\n

While I think there\u2019s value in metrics like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) or Net Rating to approximate player value, predicting a team\u2019s future performance isn\u2019t entirely as simple as plugging a roster into a model. There are plenty of other relevant factors at play that aren\u2019t so easy to measure, like coaching. Mike Babcock<\/a> is an addition to the Oilers that\u2019s invisible in most models, but tangible once the team hits the ice.<\/p>\n

Kris Knoblauch had a tough season last year. Edmonton\u2019s lines were in a constant blender, McDavid and Draisaitl were overplayed and out of gas by the playoffs, and several players had difficulty finding a role. The Oilers weren\u2019t a perfect roster, but Knoblauch didn\u2019t do enough to maximize his roster.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s where the team could see its biggest change. Whatever your opinion is on Babcock\u2019s off-ice conduct, most would agree he\u2019s a brilliant hockey mind. If he can instill more structure and synergy in the Oilers, he could provide a significant boost that won\u2019t be captured by analytics.<\/p>\n

Even Luszczyszyn concedes this point. \u201cFrom a pure results perspective, [Babcock] projects to provide a major impact given how the Leafs improved under the hood in his first season there,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

His model also doesn\u2019t factor in chemistry and playstyle. It might spit out a lower projection for Shea compared to Nurse, for example, but Shea\u2019s ability to retrieve and move pucks up ice is a better fit with Edmonton\u2019s forward group than Nurse\u2019s skillset.<\/p>\n

How can the Oilers exceed off-season analytics projections?<\/p>\n

Coaching and playstyle aside, I can understand why the Oilers might rank lower in some models.<\/p>\n

The defence is relatively similar, but the forward group lost Jack Roslovic, who wasn\u2019t replaced in free agency. If you plug Isaac Howard into Roslovic\u2019s spot, their forward group appears worse on paper, but players of Howard\u2019s age and pedigree are plenty capable of breakout seasons.<\/p>\n

Even if Howard can\u2019t replace Roslovic\u2019s contributions, the Oilers still have a bullet in the chamber, and that\u2019s their $4.725 million of cap space, according to PuckPedia. If they sit back and accrue cap space over the course of the season, they\u2019ll have enough room to fit any additional contract\u2014no \u201chockey trades\u201d or \u201cmoney-in, money-out\u201d requirements. With McDavid locked in for just two years, you have to think Bowman will pull the trigger on something big.<\/p>\n

Luszczyszyn is a quality analyst with legitimate expertise in analytics, but his model isn\u2019t gospel for future projections. With improved coaching and the cap flexibility for a game-changing addition, the Oilers have set themselves up for a higher ceiling in 2026-27. Regardless of what this model says.<\/p>\n

PRESENTED BY VIVID SEATS\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"While there are still two months until the puck drops on opening night for the Edmonton Oilers, we\u2019ve…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":816482,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[433],"tags":[49,48,448,82],"class_list":["post-816481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-nhl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/816481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=816481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/816481\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/816482"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=816481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=816481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=816481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}