The streets of Cooperstown will belong to Carlos Beltr\u00e1n, Andruw Jones and Jeff Kent this weekend. Their Hall of Fame Induction Day arrives Sunday, so we\u2019ll be shining the spotlight their way all weekend. Stay tuned for all of that.<\/p>\n
But this is that \u201cother\u201d Hall of Fame column I serve up for you every July. It\u2019s the one where we ask:<\/p>\n
Which active players will get to join those three men in the plaque gallery someday?<\/p>\n
This is the fourth year in a row I\u2019ve asked that not-controversial-at-all little question. Shockingly, it has provided you thoughtful readers with an excellent opportunity to rant, rave and call me names that would never come out of the mouth of, say, Dora the Explorer. Thanks for the helpful input!<\/p>\n
The format remains the same. I\u2019ll divide the players into tiers. Then I\u2019ll offer some incisive thoughts on those tiers. Then I\u2019ll see how quickly I can join the Witness Protection Program because I\u2019ve noticed in the past that this column seems to make people very agitated. Ready for the fun to begin? Let\u2019s go.
IN RIGHT NOW
Justin Verlander
Max Scherzer
Mike Trout
Freddie Freeman
Mookie Betts
Aaron Judge
Nolan Arenado*
Jose Altuve*
Shohei Ohtani*<\/p>\n
IN THE RED ZONE<\/p>\n
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
Paul Goldschmidt
Chris Sale*<\/p>\n
ACROSS THE 50<\/p>\n
Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez
Francisco Lindor
Salvador Perez*
MOVING THE CHAINS<\/p>\n
Juan Soto
Kyle Schwarber*
Yordan Alvarez*
Matt Olson*
Trea Turner*
Bobby Witt Jr.*<\/p>\n
DRIVE STALLED
Gerrit Cole
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.*
Giancarlo Stanton*
Carlos Correa
Alex Bregman*
Corey Seager*
Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.*
Christian Yelich*
Corbin Burnes*<\/p>\n
STARTERS CORNER<\/p>\n
Jacob deGrom
Zack Wheeler
Paul Skenes
Tarik Skubal*
Jacob Misiorowski*<\/p>\n
CLOSERS CORNER<\/p>\n
Kenley Jansen
Aroldis Chapman
Josh Hader
Craig Kimbrel
Edwin D\u00edaz*<\/p>\n
CATCHERS CORNER<\/p>\n
J.T. Realmuto
Cal Raleigh
Will Smith<\/p>\n
GET BACK TO ME IN THREE YEARS<\/p>\n
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Rafael Devers
Kyle Tucker
Corbin Carroll
Cody Bellinger
Xander Bogaerts
Matt Chapman
Luis Arraez
Dylan Cease<\/p>\n
GET BACK TO ME IN FIVE YEARS<\/p>\n
Julio Rodr\u00edguez
Gunnar Henderson
Elly De La Cruz
James Wood
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/p>\n
GRADUATED<\/p>\n
Clayton Kershaw<\/p>\n
(*new to this tier)<\/p>\n
Got it? Those are the names on the board. Now let\u2019s take a deeper look. I\u2019m generally going to focus on the most notable shifts in these tiers. So for perspective on the names who haven\u2019t shifted, feel free to check out last year\u2019s column<\/a> and\/or the 2024 edition<\/a>.<\/p>\n In last year\u2019s column, I spun the cases for every one of these holdovers: Verlander, Scherzer, Trout, Freeman, Betts and Judge. You know what hasn\u2019t changed? If they want to start working on their speeches now, it won\u2019t be wasted effort. I\u2019d bet you breakfast at the Cooperstown Diner that you\u2019ll be listening to them someday.<\/p>\n So let\u2019s focus on the three new entries: Arenado, Altuve and Ohtani. That feels like the place where the debate gets juiciest.<\/p>\n NOLAN ARENADO: He roared through the doors of the 2,000-Hit Club this week. I was excited about that, because round numbers come in handy when you\u2019re writing Hall of Fame columns. At the very least, they provide a great excuse to type out tidbits like this:<\/p>\n 3B WITH 2,000+ HITS, 10+ GOLD GLOVES, 350+ HR<\/p>\n Mike Schmidt Or there\u2019s also this list:<\/p>\n 10+ GOLD GLOVES, 3+ HR TITLES, 8+ ALL-STAR TEAMS Willie Mays So don\u2019t get yourself all distracted by the 35-year-old version of Arenado currently on display in Arizona. Cooperstown is about a player’s complete body of work. So you know what we call guys who spent over a decade hitting this many long balls, tipping their caps at all those All-Star games and producing their own spectacular defensive highlight reel?<\/p>\n \u201cHall of Famers!\u201d<\/p>\n JOSE ALTUVE: I spent way too much time thinking about which of these lists Altuve belongs on. Then it hit me: The Cooperstown stars have already lined up to make this guy a lock Hall of Famer. Why? I\u2019ll hit you with three names:<\/p>\n Carlos Beltr\u00e1n! \u2026 Jeff Kent! \u2026 Chase Utley!<\/p>\n Beltr\u00e1n and Kent will be standing on that podium Sunday. Utley will be the leading returning vote-getter when the 2027 ballots arrive next offseason. So \u2026 get my drift?<\/p>\n When you view the Hall credentials of Altuve through the lens of Beltr\u00e1n\/Kent\/Utley, how could we not elect the man who has spent the last decade and a half winning an MVP, three batting titles, seven Silver Sluggers and two World Series in Houston?<\/p>\n How Beltr\u00e1n helps Altuve \u2014 Do I even have to explain this? Beltr\u00e1n was portrayed as a leading architect of the Astros\u2019 2017 sign-stealing escapades<\/a> \u2026 and we just elected him to the Hall of Fame. Didn\u2019t that tell us exactly how this electorate will look at Altuve someday? He might get dinged for a year or two, but then he\u2019ll get judged on his numbers. Which brings us to \u2026<\/p>\n How Kent and Utley help Altuve \u2014 Let\u2019s see now. What position did Kent and Utley play? Right. Second base. And what position does Altuve play? Yep. Second base. So how does his career compare with their careers? Thanks for asking.<\/p>\n By the end of this season, Altuve almost certainly will have passed Kent and Utley in, well, just about everything except Kent\u2019s historic power numbers. Plus, Altuve has as many MVPs (one) as Kent and Utley combined \u2014 and more World Series rings (two) than Kent and Utley combined (one). Add in Altuve\u2019s massive postseason bonus points, and he\u2019s sealed the deal.<\/p>\n Feel free to grumble. But this couldn\u2019t be more obvious.<\/p>\n SHOHEI OHTANI \u2014 I was going to keep Ohtani slogging along in the Red Zone for one more year based on a sheer technicality: He hasn\u2019t put in the required 10 seasons in the big leagues yet. (He\u2019s only in Year 9 on this side of the Pacific.) But then \u2026<\/p>\n I found myself laughing out loud at the absurdity of that.<\/p>\n This dude is, without question, the most talented human being we\u2019ve ever seen play baseball (or possibly any sport). And I like the odds that he\u2019ll find a way to show up on the field at least once after this year. So what the heck am I waiting for?<\/p>\n Just think about what we\u2019re watching: Ohtani has a better career OPS+ (160) than Henry Aaron or Stan Musial. He has a better career ERA+ (155) than Pedro Martinez or Randy Johnson. And he\u2019s a real person. So of course he\u2019s a Hall of Famer. Technicality, schmechnicality. <\/p>\n I\u2019m going to get out my telestrator now and do my best Tony Romo impression. Let\u2019s diagram where you can find these guys on your screen.<\/p>\n Harper and Machado have been stuck in the Red Zone for four straight years now, but here\u2019s the good news: They\u2019re at the 5-yard line!<\/p>\n They\u2019re both closing in on 400 homers. Machado just crossed the 60-WAR barrier, according to Baseball Reference. Harper (55.8) is close behind. Those magic numbers will come in handy.<\/p>\n Plus, Harper has two MVP awards. Machado has two Gold Gloves. It\u2019s only the age-33 season for both of them. So we know where this is leading. Their stars just have to keep on shining. And \u2026<\/p>\n Goldschmidt is also spending his fourth straight year in the Red Zone. You can find him on the 10-yard line. And since he\u2019s only inching toward the goal line at this stage of his career, I\u2019m not 100 percent sure he\u2019ll get there.<\/p>\n But I also know he\u2019ll have a heck of a case when his name appears on the ballot. Would you believe that only two first basemen in history have rolled up at least 65 wins above replacement (bWAR), an MVP award, 375 homers and 175 steals? One is Jeff Bagwell. The other? Paul Goldschmidt.<\/p>\n So that\u2019s your official Red Zone update on the holdovers. Now let\u2019s talk about the new guy we just painted red.<\/p>\n CHRIS SALE: I love Chris Sale. I also know his career record is 155-94. And there has been no such thing as a Hall of Fame starter with 155 wins since Dizzy Dean staggered in with 150 (on the ninth ballot) 73 years ago.<\/p>\n So yeah, I got the memo that \u201cWins\u201d aren\u2019t a thing anymore. But last I checked, they were still on the stat sheet. So it\u2019s not quite Sale\u2019s time yet. But like Altuve, the stars are lining up for him everywhere he looks \u2014 especially in F\u00e9lix Hern\u00e1ndez\u2019s neighborhood.<\/p>\n Six months ago, when the ballot smoke cleared, King F\u00e9lix had just pole-vaulted from 20.6 percent of the vote in his ballot debut to 46.1 percent in Year 2. And if that means Hern\u00e1ndez is destined for election some day, Sale is the lockiest lock to join him of any active pitcher alive who isn\u2019t named Verlander or Scherzer. Take a look at how F\u00e9lix\u2019s numbers stack up against the ace in Atlanta.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s Sale\u2019s place in history that really propelled him into the Red Zone. Among all pitchers with at least 2,000 innings, Sale ranks second (behind only Clayton Kershaw) in WHIP. Then there are those seven top-five Cy Young Award finishes. Every eligible pitcher with seven or more is a Hall of Famer except for Roger Clemens. I don\u2019t see that changing.<\/p>\n So where\u2019d I put that telestrator? Oh, here it is. I\u2019ve got Sale on the 2-yard line. Will he escape the Red Zone by next year? I\u2019ll let you know after we see how King F\u00e9lix fares next Hall of Fame election day.<\/p>\n I wish I\u2019d started writing this column 20 years ago, so I could track this better. But if I had, I bet we\u2019d look back and find that practically everyone who made it into this \u201cAcross the 50\u201d group wound up getting a plaque chiseled just for them.<\/p>\n Nobody makes it across the 50 without spending the first half of their careers as a star. Then we let those guys hang out here for a while until we can nudge them into the Red Zone.<\/p>\n Normally, that happens fast. This year, Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez and Francisco Lindor have dealt with just enough injury stuff that they haven\u2019t been able to graduate.<\/p>\n But Ram\u00edrez is just five home runs away from becoming the first third baseman in the 300-Homer, 300-Steal Club. So his ride to Cooperstown is still rocking along on cruise control.<\/p>\n And Lindor, even in a year where he\u2019s been practically a non-factor, has still climbed all the way up to ninth among active position players in WAR, according to Baseball Reference. He\u2019s at 56.3, and everyone above him is older than he is (32).<\/p>\n So they\u2019ll be prime Red Zone candidates next year. But what about the new guy in this club?<\/p>\n SALVADOR PEREZ: Have I mentioned how much I love a well-timed milestone while I\u2019m working on this column?. So here\u2019s a big thank you to Salvy, who was helpful enough to hit the bomb that made him the Royals\u2019 all-time home run leader while I was sitting here typing about him.<\/p>\n That feat just adds to this man\u2019s fascinating place in catching history:<\/p>\n Most homers for his franchise \u2014 Only one other catcher can make that claim. His name is Johnny Bench (389 for the Reds).<\/p>\n Five Gold Gloves, 300 homers \u2014 Here\u2019s another list that won\u2019t take long to spit out. The only names on it: Bench, Perez and Pudge Rodr\u00edguez. You might be aware that those other two guys are Hall of Famers.<\/p>\n Five Gold Gloves, 300 homers, nine All-Star teams, World Series MVP \u2014 Once again, just two names crack this club: Salvy and Bench.<\/p>\n His Cooperstown case isn\u2019t truly as clear-cut as those last three nuggets make it look. Jay Jaffe\u2019s invaluable JAWS metric has Perez ranked as only the 32nd-best catcher in history. And if you go by FanGraphs\u2019 version of WAR, he lands at No. 22 \u2014 just since 2000.<\/p>\n But has he done enough to chug across midfield? Let\u2019s go with yes. But is this journey going to end in the plaque gallery? I see a furious Salvy debate coming in my crystal ball.<\/p>\n Lots of newcomers to this club! (And also one dropout: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) Let\u2019s discuss.<\/p>\n KYLE SCHWARBER: You have to look past the WAR column (22.6) to make the case for the Schwarbino. But it\u2019s legal to look past it in all 50 states, so let\u2019s do that.<\/p>\n At age 33, Schwarber is \u201conly\u201d 127 home runs away from 500. You know how many he has hit just since Opening Day 2024? How \u2019bout 127 on the nose. So while I think he has to reach 500 to make his Cooperstown case, I also fully expect him to get there. And if he does \u2026<\/p>\n He\u2019ll be a man with (at least) two home run titles, an MVP runner-up, a World Series ring, 10 postseason appearances in his first 11 seasons, (at least) 23 postseason homers and a .907 October OPS. Not to mention all the character-and-integrity bonus points he rolls up every day of every year. Sounds like a head-turning Cooperstown case to me.<\/p>\n YORDAN ALVAREZ: The Astros\u2019 favorite masher just turned 29 a few weeks ago. He\u2019s rocking a 163 career OPS+, 203 homers and a .583 career slugging percentage. That all seems good. Let\u2019s see just how good.<\/p>\n I looked at every hitter whose career began in the last 100 years. Ready for the list of guys with 200 homers plus an OPS+ and slugging percentage as good as Air Yordan\u2019s through their age-29 season? Here it comes:<\/p>\n Ted Williams OK then. That\u2019s what you call moving the chains.<\/p>\n MATT OLSON: We\u2019re paying way too little attention to Olson\u2019s Freddie Freeman-esque trek toward Cooperstown. On one hand, the Braves\u2019 first baseman isn\u2019t there yet. On the other \u2026<\/p>\n At age 32, he\u2019s sitting on a 135 career OPS+, 43.2 bWAR, 314 career homers, three Gold Gloves and a home run title. That puts him in more rarified territory than you probably realized.<\/p>\n Since the invention of Gold Glove awards in 1957, only two other first basemen have piled up 300 homers, three Gold Gloves, a home run title, at least 40 WAR and an OPS+ as far above league average as Olson\u2019s through their age-32 season. You\u2019ve heard of them.<\/p>\n One is Eddie Murray, whose plaque has already been chiseled. The other is Goldschmidt, who is in prime position for a plaque of his own. Excellent company!<\/p>\n TREA TURNER: Is it OK if we take a step back and ignore the raging conversation in Philadelphia about Turner\u2019s streakiness on both sides of the ball<\/a>? Let\u2019s do that, because if that\u2019s all you see when you look at this guy\u2019s life and times, you\u2019re missing a hell of a career.<\/p>\n He milestoned it up this week \u2014 firing both his 200th career homer and 300th career double<\/a>. So check out all the cool winning numbers you can find on his Hall of Fame bingo card \u2014 at age 33, with another seven years left on his contract with the Phillies:<\/p>\n 200 HR (*second best in history)<\/p>\n You know who has had that career? Nobody! And even the group that\u2019s close \u2014 Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Willie Mays, Jackie Robinson, Joe Morgan and Altuve \u2014 is missing some of that.<\/p>\n If Turner can keep doing this stuff as a shortstop, which isn\u2019t a certainty, that\u2019s a Hall of Fame career. And even if he can\u2019t, he\u2019s at least moved enough chains to earn 200 words worth of attention in this column.<\/p>\n BOBBY WITT JR.: You know how good a player you have to be to rank this high in this column by the time you\u2019re 26 years old? You basically have to be a dude whose talent jumps off the flat screen at you and spins your eyeballs around a few times. And if that doesn\u2019t sound like Witt to you, it\u2019s only because you\u2019re not paying attention.<\/p>\n He just turned 26 a few weeks ago. But he has already had seasons where he led his league in doubles, triples, hits, steals and batting average. He\u2019s spun off two 30-30 seasons and two top-five MVP finishes. And Statcast has branded him as both the fastest man in the sport and the best defensive shortstop in his league.<\/p>\n Does that sound like a guy who\u2019s building a Hall of Fame case to you? It does to me. So pay more attention to the Royals out there!<\/p>\n Most of the names who show up on this list don\u2019t need much explaining. But just in case \u2026<\/p>\n Giancarlo Stanton hasn\u2019t shown up in a batter\u2019s box since April 24. Tough way to chase 500 homers.<\/p>\n Carlos Correa made his last trip to the plate on May 4. Ronald Acuna Jr.\u2019s last hit was June 6. Christian Yelich and Corey Seager have played 118 games combined. Corbin Burnes signed his contract with the Diamondbacks 571 days ago. He\u2019s pitched 11 times.<\/p>\n Moral of that story: When the Hall of Fame Express is in the shop, the Cooperstown Express is spinning in circles. So that explains how those men wound up at the Stalled Drive All-Stars stop \u2014 but it doesn\u2019t explain these two:<\/p>\n VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.: A year ago, when I wrote this opus, I had Vladdy in an electrifying Moving the Chains trio alongside Soto and Sale. If you\u2019d asked me again a few months later, as he was leaving his imprint all over October, I might have made him the first 27-year-old Red Zone candidate in the history of this column. But then \u2026<\/p>\n Baseball happened. And boy, has it happened to him.<\/p>\n It\u2019s almost August, and he still hasn\u2019t hit a home run in Toronto. He\u2019s batting .115 on fly balls, barely half the league average. And the harder he tries to unearth the magic formula that made him a postseason terror, the worse he gets. Heading into Wednesday, he was slashing .191\/.251\/.289 over his last 39 games, with three homers in 167 trips to the plate.<\/p>\n Oof. Roughest season in the history of the Guerrero family.<\/p>\n ALEX BREGMAN: Wrigley Field and Cubbie Nation seemed like such a perfect fit for Bregman. Instead, this has the look \u2014 for now \u2014 of the worst season of his career (.239, with a .692 OPS through Wednesday). Man, baseball is hard, isn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n Bregman is still an impact defender and an energizer who lifts everyone around him. So he can play for my team \u2014 as soon as I remember to buy one. But this isn\u2019t about clubhouse chemistry. This is about finding his way to Cooperstown.<\/p>\n Since he\u2019s stuck these days at 45.5 bWAR, he\u2019s going to need a bunch of 5.0-Win seasons to reach the level of the average Hall of Fame third baseman (68.9). And here\u2019s why that feels like trouble: He hasn\u2019t had any 5.0-Win seasons since 2019. Seems like an ominous trend.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t know what a Hall of Fame starting pitcher is going to look like in 15 years. But whatever he looks like, the back of his baseball card is guaranteed not to look anything like Justin Verlander<\/a>\u2019s.<\/p>\n I\u2019m assuming that by then, we\u2019ll live in a universe where voters just crumple up starters\u2019 win totals and fire them into the nearest dumpster. So that gives guys like Jacob deGrom (103 wins, at age 38) and Zack Wheeler (123, at age 36) an actual chance to get elected.<\/p>\n Then there\u2019s Paul Skenes. Who knows where his win total is headed \u2014 but if he retires with, say, a 2.07 ERA, he could finish with 86 wins and I\u2019d still vote for him.<\/p>\n
Nolan Arenado
(I can stop typing now.)<\/p>\n
(at any position)<\/p>\n
Ken Griffey Jr.
Mike Schmidt
Nolan Arenado<\/p>\n
Frank Thomas
Mike Trout
Albert Pujols<\/p>\n
300 doubles
332 SB
85.8% SB success rate*
2 batting titles
2 SB titles
41.9 bWAR<\/p>\n