{"id":829288,"date":"2026-07-27T13:58:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T13:58:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/829288\/"},"modified":"2026-07-27T13:58:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T13:58:09","slug":"mondays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/829288\/","title":{"rendered":"Monday\u2019s analyst upgrades and downgrades"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn thinks TMX Group Ltd.\u2019s (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/X-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/X-T\/\">X-T<\/a>) operating results now \u201coutweigh industry risks,\u201d leading him to upgrade his rating for its shares to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201csector perform\u201d previously.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe maintain a favourable view of TMX\u2019s long-term growth outlook, strong track record of strategic execution (including recent acquisitions of CBOE and RAFI) and defensive attributes (e.g., over 50-per-cent recurring revenue, diversified\/counter-cyclical revenue drivers, strong balance sheet and solid FCF generation),\u201d he explained. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cOur estimates imply low double-digit EPS growth rates through 2027 as we anticipate continued solid growth from Derivatives, Trayport, VettaFi, Corporate Solutions and upside in trading volumes near term given volatility. This follows on EPS growth of 25 per cent in 2025 and 16 per cent in 2024. Despite the strong track record and outlook, TMX is down 4 per cent year-to-date vs. the S&amp;P TSX Index up 11 per cent and Financials Index up 21 per cent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a client report released alongside a previewing second-quarter earnings season for his Canadian Financial Services coverage, Mr. Gloyn acknowledged industry risks are \u201creal, but manageable\u201d for the Toronto-based company.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThree themes have weighed on Securities Exchange industry mutliples,\u201d he said. \u201cEach risk is real, and early in their respective evolution, thus could present further downside in the shares. However, we believe TMX is well positioned to manage these risks. 1) AI may disrupt data consumption. We believe TMX\u2019s market leading position in Canada (and in Europe for Trayport) provides an opportunity for TMX to meet clients where they are consuming that data. In addition, we believe TMX can upcharge AI applications and develop new products\/services for AI driven clients (as NDAQ commented). 2) Tokenization will introduce 24\/7 trading and instant settlement, which TMX built during its multi-year post-trade modernization. As the operator of the central registry and collateral management, TMX certainly has a right to play as these new markets develop. 3) Perpetual Futures can shift the way clients manage risk, however, early indications from CME suggest limited client demand, while NDAQ internal data shows no evidence of cannibalization in regions where perpetual futures exist.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">The analyst reduced his target for TMX shares to $63 from $65. The average target on the Street is $68.86.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">On the other companies he covers, Mr. Gloyn said: \u201cAgainst strong year-to-date performance from the Canadian banks and life insurers, outperformance across our coverage has been narrow. Our large-cap top pick, IGM, has performed well and is the strongest name in our coverage. While we remain constructive, the implied valuation of the core platforms has increased materially. Accordingly, the risk\/reward has become more balanced.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cDespite more muted share price performance, we remain positive on EFN and BN. For EFN, we continue to see an acceleration in services revenues as a catalyst to reverse the decline in shares. Q1 helped confirm that acceleration is underway, while overall revenue growth, EPS and FCF\/share all continue to outperform expectations. For BN, the Just Group acquisition, improving real estate fundamentals and greater visibility into a carried interest inflection reinforce our confidence in the medium-term earnings outlook. We see an attractive risk\/reward at 12 times NTM [next 12-month] P\/DE.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">For IGM Financial Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/IGM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/IGM-T\/\">IGM-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d), Mr. Gloyn raised his target to $91 from $85. The average is $81.50.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cOur top pick has worked well,\u201d he said. \u201cIGM is up 36 per cent year-to-date and the strongest performer in our coverage. Our view was that the improving flows, better contributions from strategic investments and increasing capital return were not fully appreciated given the large discount implied for the core platforms when valuing strategic investments at their recent marks. Results have played out as expected, and we remain positive on the outlook as i) the HNW strategy at IG Wealth and rebound at Mackenzie have driven strong net flows, ii) strategic investments continue to scale and iii) IGM increased capital return through dividends and repurchases. That said, the strong share price performance in H1 has made the risk\/reward somewhat more balanced. Stripping out the value of strategic investments such as China AMC, Wealthsimple, Rockefeller, Great-West, Northleaf, and cash suggests the implied valuation of core platforms has increased materially to more than 10 times, more in line with global wealth and asset manager peers currently trading at 10 times to 12 times. While we continue to expect solid earnings growth from core platforms and remain constructive on the shares, future upside is now more dependent on the future marks of strategic investments, the magnitude and timing of which are less predictable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">His other target adjustments are:<\/p>\n<p>Definity Financial Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DFY-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DFY-T\/\">DFY-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $96 from $94. The average is $80.20.Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FFH-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FFH-T\/\">FFH-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $3,450 from $3,300. Average: $2,730.14.Fiera Capital Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FSZ-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/FSZ-T\/\">FSZ-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to $5.50 from $6. Average: $6.Goeasy Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/GSY-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/GSY-T\/\">GSY-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to $43 from $34. Average: $40.20.Intact Financial Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/IFC-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/IFC-T\/\">IFC-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $379 from $372. Average: $322.Power Corp. of Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/POW-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/POW-T\/\">POW-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to $102 from $85. Average: $87.Trisura Group Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TSU-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TSU-T\/\">TSU-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $60 from $59. Average: $57.58.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Jefferies analyst John Aiken believes a recovery in the valuations for Canadian personal and commercial insurers is \u201ca positive but could indicate near-term volatility.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAfter facing pressure in the first quarter related to concerns regarding soft pricing in the broader global markets, the resiliency of Intact and Definity\u2019s earnings forced the market to pay attention to the ongoing hard pricing in their domestic markets,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile technical issues, including ongoing flows into Canadian financials equities, supported the recovery in multiples, we view the strong valuation performance in the second quarter as rational. That said, with the potential Cat pressures continuing to weigh on earnings, current multiples on 2026 estimates are approaching \u2018frothy\u2019 levels. However, when viewed against 2027 expectations, the multiples are much more balanced and provide additional upside. However, should the second quarter earnings create some question about the run-rate level of earnings outside of weather events, we would expect to see some softness in valuations.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a client report released Monday, Mr. Aiken said he remains \u201cquite constructive\u201d on his outlook for the second quarter. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThe hard pricing experience in most domestic markets along with our expectation for continued yet modest volume growth, should be supportive to the top line,\u201d he explained. \u201cWe also believe that current year claims ratios should be resilient, along with expense ratios. While investment income may not be facing incremental tailwinds with rates stabilizing, we are not anticipating any material pressure on that front either. Despite the challenged outlook for domestic GDP growth, the Canadian P&amp;C insurers remain reasonably well-positioned, enjoying one of the more recession-proof business models in our coverage universe. Consequently, their relative valuation multiples reflect their defensive nature, with incremental upside should GDP growth accelerate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">He raised his target for Definity Financial Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DFY-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DFY-T\/\">DFY-T<\/a>) to $91 from $83 and Intact Financial Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/IFC-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/IFC-T\/\">IFC-T<\/a>) to $351 from $343, maintaining \u201cbuy\u201d recommendations. The averages are $80.20 and $322, respectively.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWhile these multiples appear stretched against our 2026 forecasts (22.5 times and 19.5 times, respectively) they are much more reasonable based on 2027 (19.0 times and 18.5 times, respectively), which will become our valuation year post Q2 reporting,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Raymond James analyst Daryl Swetlishoff is \u201cincrementally more bullish on lumber equities\u201d heading into second-quarter earnings season.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAmid reports of limited prompt-delivery lumber availability, North American lumber markets staged a counter-seasonal and counter-cyclical rally through 2Q26 and into July,\u201d he said. \u201cThis supports our increasingly constructive view that lumber markets are entering the later stages of a multi-year downcycle. Western SPF continues to trade above\u00a0US$500\/mfbm [per thousand board feet],\u00a0while Southern Yellow Pine remains well above\u00a0US$400\/mfbm,\u00a0despite subdued housing activity and what is typically a seasonally weaker period for lumber demand. In our view, this is one of the clearest signals yet that structural supply constraints are beginning to offset cyclical demand weakness.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWith Western SPF and Southern Yellow Pine 2&#215;4 pricing up approximately 4\u20136 per cent quarter-over-quarter, and composite prices up roughly 40\u201350 per cent year-over-year, we believe building materials earnings are reaching a material inflection point. Our 2Q26 estimates imply improved sequential results and dramatically stronger year-over-year performance, with most companies expected to meet or exceed current consensus expectations. Importantly, despite a challenging macro backdrop and punitive average duty rates of approximately 45 per cent, we estimate margins for larger North American lumber producers are approaching mid-cycle levels \u2014 reflecting the benefits of regional diversification, strategic asset repositioning, and the removal of uneconomic capacity.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Swetlishoff also emphasized the set-up for the second half of 2026 is also \u201csurprisingly encouraging.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWith benchmark CME SPF lumber futures breaking out, we remain constructive on 2H26. From a valuation viewpoint, stocks continue to trade near multi-year lows discounting just US$275\/mfbm lumber prices,\u201d he explained. \u201cWhat\u2019s more, we expect shipments of WSPF lumber to weaken further through the balance of the year as high-cost Cdn timber baskets remain heavily impacted by the combination of softwood lumber duties and Section 232 tariffs, with additional permanent closures announced of late. Coupled with resilient lumber prices and companies that have remained largely unexposed to wildfires (thus far), we recommend investors dip their feet into our lumber-levered top picks and build a full position ahead of the Halloween-to-Super Bowl seasonal trade.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">The analyst lowered his rating for Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DBM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DBM-T\/\">DBM-T<\/a>) to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201cstrong buy\u201d based on his below-consensus earnings outlook \u201ccoupled with the stock\u2019s strong year-to-date performance despite a challenging macro backdrop.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">He kept a $12 target for Doman shares. The average is $12.32.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">He also made these target changes:<\/p>\n<p>Interfor Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ifp-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ifp-T\/\">IFP-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $17 from $13. Average: $14.08.Stella-Jones Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/sj-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/sj-T\/\">SJ-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $90 from $95. Average: $92.11.Western Forest Products Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/WEF-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/WEF-T\/\">WEF-T<\/a>, \u201cmarket perform\u201d) to $20 from $12.50. Average: $15.38.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201c[We] highlight Outperform-rated Interfor and Canfor as our preferred lumber names. We see both companies as offering attractive torque to improving lumber prices and an eventual recovery in housing activity. The opposite is true for OSB. Recent and ongoing capacity expansion has left OSB prices near break-even levels, limiting near-term earnings upside. As such, we maintain our Market Perform rating on West Fraser, despite forecasting an approximately 3-per-cent earnings beat when the company reports on Wednesday, July 29,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Following \u201csolid\u201d second-quarter results, RBC\u2019s Head of Global Energy Research Greg Pardy thinks Ovintiv Inc.\u2019s (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OVV-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OVV-N\/\">OVV-N<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OVV-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OVV-T\/\">OVV-T<\/a>) \u201cstreamlined portfolio, resource depth and enhanced shareholder returns point toward relative multiple expansion and continued share price appreciation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cOngoing solid performance, like what we saw in the second-quarter, along with potential S&amp;P\/TSX index inclusion, could accelerate this dynamic,\u201d he added in a client report titled Quality at a Steep Discount.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">On Friday, shares of the Denver-based energy producer rose 2.8 per cent after reported in-line production of 614,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including Permian \u201coutperformance\u201d as well as a \u201cfavorable\u201d 2026 guidance update with its net debt now below $3-billion, falling 52 per cent sequentially due largely to the disposition of its Anadarko assets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cCatalyst-wise, Ovintiv has fulfilled all S&amp;P\/TSX Composite eligibility criteria under a proposed framework published by S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices on July 23, which would expand index eligibility to include TSX-listed foreign issuers with a meaningful Canadian presence,\u201d he added. \u201cUnder this framework, a 50-per-cent foreign issuer factor would be applied to Ovintiv\u2019s float-adjusted market capitalization, resulting in a theoretical composite weight of approximately 0.221 per cent. If adopted, changes would take effect at the September 2026 annual rebalancing (market open September 21, 2026), with market participant feedback due by August 21, 2026. Based on RBC Index Strategy Team\u2019s estimate (as of July 23), this would equate to roughly 3.4 million shares of direct indexing demand for Ovintiv.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">With the bulk of its efforts to deleverage its balance sheet completed, Mr. Pardy thinks the company has \u201cgreater flexibility to allocate free cash flow to shareholder returns.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAs such, Ovintiv is now targeting to return 60-per-cent-plus of free cash flow (across dividends + buybacks) to shareholders on an annualized basis (under current pricing) in 2026 versus its previous signal of returning 50-75 per cent. What this means is that the company\u2019s buybacks could ramp up materially in the second half. In this regard, we have factored in $625-million of share repurchases for Ovintiv in the second half of 2026. Over the longer term, Ovintiv remains committed to returning 50-100 per cent of its free cash flow to investors across dividends and buybacks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAlso notable in Ovintiv\u2019s quarter was a $45-million restructuring expense (in connection with headcount downsizing), and a $20-million one-time interest expense related to the redemption of its 5.650 per cent ($700-million) notes due 2028. A $40-million sulphur revenue contribution supported a natural gas wellhead realization in Canada of $2.05\/mcf, while pipeline bottlenecks in the Permian resulted in a U.S. gas realization of $0.03\/mcf. Under our base outlook, U.S. natural gas production will account for just 8 per cent of Ovintiv\u2019s second-half 2026 equivalent production.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Seeing a \u201csteep\u201d discount in its current valuation, Mr. Pardy reaffirmed Ovintiv\u2019s place on the \u201cRBC Global Energy Best Ideas List\u201d and hiked his target to US$85 from US$70 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average on the Street is US$69.87.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cUnder futures (priced as of July 22), Ovintiv is trading at a 2027E debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 4.0 times (vs. our North American Senior E&amp;P peer group avg. of 5.3 times) and a 12-per-cent free cash flow yield (enterprise value) (vs. peers at 9 per cent). We believe that Ovintiv should trade in line with our North American peer group given its capable leadership team, impressive execution capability, inventory depth in the Montney, enhanced shareholder returns and strong balance sheet.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">RBC Dominion Securities analyst Michael Harvey came away from Headwater Exploration Inc.\u2019s (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/HWX-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/HWX-T\/\">HWX-T<\/a>) second-quarter final results \u201cpositively, driven by continued results at its prospective regions in the Grand Rapids, Pelican and Seal.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cQuarterly results were largely in line with waterflood supported volumes continuing to trend upwards &#8211; HWX flagged near-term visibility to corporate declines of 15 per cent,\u201d he added. \u201cOur estimates for 2026\/27 increase modestly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">On Friday, the Calgary-based company reported production of 24,567 barrels of oil equivalent per day, leading to cash flow per share of 49 cents. Both met Mr. Harvey\u2019s projections (24,500 boe\/d and 49 cents).<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThe 2026 capital budget remains unchanged at $250-million with capital split between maintenance\/growth ($110-million), secondary recovery ($65-million), exploration ($25-million), infrastructure ($25-million) and land ($25-million),\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Maintaining his \u201csector perform\u201d rating, the analyst raised his target by $1 to $15. The average is $12.07.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cA premium multiple is warranted in our view given very strong fundamentals, though we see less room for expansion vs peers at current levels,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cOur $15.00 price target reflects execution of the company\u2019s core development plan (including waterflood implementation) and successful exploration drilling across over 400 net sections in the Clearwater (risked at 25 per cent). We have modelled a 350 mboe type curve on the company\u2019s core development and utilize a 100\u2013150 mboe curve for exploration prospects.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Heading into second-quarter earnings season for precious metals producers, Desjardins Securities analysts Bryce Adams and Allison Carson warn both lower prices and \u201cincreased pressure on costs due to higher diesel prices and consumables\u201d are likely to weigh on results.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">&#8220;In 2Q26, gold and silver prices pulled back sharply, with averages for the quarter of US$4,518\/oz and US$73.24\/oz, respectively,&#8221; they said. \u201cGold was pressured by shifting expectations toward higher Fed rates for longer and the potential for additional hikes alongside firm real yields and a stronger USD. Silver also weakened due to its higher beta vs gold.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe also note that 2Q26 was the lowest quarter of production for several of our precious metals producers, putting further pressure on AISC on a per-ounce basis, with 2Q26 expected to be the highest-cost quarter for several of the producers under coverage.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">With the 12 of the 16 companies in their coverage universe having pre-released production results for the quarter, the analysts say their expectations largely fall in line with the Street\u2019s forecasts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe estimate a beat vs consensus on both EPS and EBITDA for OLA and MAI; however, we note that MAI\u2019s consensus numbers may not reflect the recently released production results,\u201d they said. \u201cWe model a miss vs consensus on both EPS and EBITDA estimates for USA, ITR and AGI, although we expect there are several analyst estimates not updated for production results from USA and ITR. For AGI, we are only modestly below the Street at 6 per cent for EBITDA and 5 per cent for EPS.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Adams and Ms. Carson made only modest adjustments to their projections, leading to a pair of target reductions:<\/p>\n<p>Lundin Gold Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LUG-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LUG-T\/\">LUG-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $100 from $105. The average is $106.40.Orla Mining Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OLA-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OLA-T\/\">OLA-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $29 from $30. Average: $28.20.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Their top picks are:<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Aya Gold &amp; Silver Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AYA-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AYA-T\/\">AYA-T<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and $38 target. Average: $36.11.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analysts: \u201cFor AYA, Zgounder\u2019s production profile now reconciles well with the technical report, while the upcoming Boumadine MRE\/PEA update can be a potential catalyst unlocking longer-term growth at a discounted valuation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* K92 Mining Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/KNT-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/KNT-T\/\">KNT-T<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and $36 target. Average: $37.42.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analysts: \u201cWe see KNT offering a compelling combination of near-term production growth and above-average resource upside.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* G Mining Ventures Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/GMIN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/GMIN-T\/\">GMIN-T<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and $60 target. Average: $59.90.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analysts: \u201cFor GMIN, we expect a strong 2H for production (60-per-cent weighted) from TZ and a catalyst-rich back half of the year to drive performance. We expect continued positive construction updates from Oko West, which remains on time and on budget. The company will also release an updated resource and PEA for Gurupi in 2H, which we expect to demonstrate the potential value for GMIN\u2019s next development project.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Ventum Financial analyst Daniel Lavoie\u00a0thinks 5N Plus Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/VNP-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/VNP-T\/\">VNP-T<\/a>) is \u201cbenefiting from a powerful combination of secular growth, geopolitical realignment, and supply-chain scarcity.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAt its core, 5N+ supplies highly specialized advanced materials that are critical to the functionality, reliability, and performance of its customers\u2019 end products,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile these materials often represent a small portion of total system cost, their importance is disproportionate: without the required purity, consistency and qualification, the final product may not perform as intended. This is especially relevant in terrestrial solar modules, space solar cells, satellite power systems, infrared optics, medical imaging, and pharmaceutical materials. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThe Company\u2019s geographic footprint, sourcing capabilities, technical know-how, and ability to add capacity in line with customer demand have positioned it as a supplier of choice in markets where reliability, qualification history, and security of supply matter. In addition, many of its key end markets are served by only a limited number of qualified suppliers outside China, creating a more disciplined competitive environment and supporting attractive long-term economics.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a client report released Monday titled From Solar Panels to Satellites: 5N+ Finds its Orbit, Mr. Lavoie initiated coverage of the Montreal-based company with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating, projecting revenue growth of 26.5 per cent in 2026 followed by a gain of 16.5 per cent in 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWhile this implies a strong multi-year growth profile, we believe the assumptions are supported by contracted demand, ongoing capacity additions, strong end-market growth in terrestrial and space solar power, and favourable pricing dynamics tied to security of supply,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThrough our\u00a0ownership lens, focused on identifying long-term compounders, what stands out is the shift toward greater\u00a0durability\u00a0and the\u00a0quality\u00a0of capital allocation since the turnaround. 5N+ has evolved into a structurally higher-quality business, with double-digit revenue growth materially expanded. We believe 5N+ remains in the early stages of a long-term transformation that began with the AZUR acquisition and the repositioning of Performance Materials. The Company\u2019s growing role as a trusted Western supplier of mission-critical advanced materials remains underappreciated.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">He set a target of $44, pointing to a 31-per-cent expected total return over the coming 12 months. The average on the Street is $46.69.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Citing uranium market strength, UBS\u2019 George Eadie upgraded Cameco Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CCO-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CCO-T\/\">CCO-T<\/a>) to \u201cbuy\u201d from \u201cneutral\u201d with a $166 target. The average on the Street is $176.88.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* After an update to Citi\u2019s precious metals price assumptions, analyst Alexander Hacking cut his targets for Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AEM-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AEM-N\/\">AEM-N<\/a>\/<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AEM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AEM-T\/\">AEM-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to US$200 from US$256 and Barrick Mining Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/B-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/B-N\/\">B-N<\/a>\/<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ABX-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ABX-T\/\">ABX-T<\/a>, \u201cneutral\u201d) target to US$41 from US$48. The averages are US$228.46 and US$53.81, respectively.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe update our AEM model for Citi\u2019s latest gold price forecasts (reduced in 2H26, but maintained at $5,000\/oz in 2027E),\u201d he said on Agnico. \u201c2Q EBITDA is set at $2.7-billion with EPS of $2.98\/sh. 2026E EBITDA is reduced 9 per cent to $11.1-billion (also accounting for lower guidance at Canadian Malartic) and 2027E EBITDA is reduced 2 per centto $12.5-billion. We lower our TP to $200\/sh on 1.6 times NAV on $3,500\/oz long-term gold (reduced from 2.0 times) &#8211; to account for lower spot gold prices. We maintain a Buy given Citi\u2019s bullish 2027 gold price outlook &amp; view that AEM is the best operator in the sector.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Ahead of the release of its quarterly results on Aug. 5 before the bell, TD Cowen\u2019s Cherilyn Radbourne bumped her Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BAM-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BAM-N\/\">BAM-N<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BAM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BAM-T\/\">BAM-T<\/a>) target to US$70 from US$69 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is US$60.63.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cBAM is set for strong DE\/FRE growth in Q2\/26, is on track for record 2026 fundraising and has a differentiated AI infrastructure platform. Investor concerns about private credit have arguably peaked, which is supportive of the whole sector,\u201d she said. \u201cThe BEP\/BIP corporate simplifications should increase the investor appeal\/index eligibility of those affiliates, which is earnings accretive to BAM over time.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* In response to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-canadian-national-second-quarter-earnings\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-canadian-national-second-quarter-earnings\/\">better-than-anticipated second-quarter results<\/a> and a raise to its guidance, Desjardins Securities\u2019 Benoit Poirier increased his target for Canadian National Railway Co. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CNR-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CNR-T\/\">CNR-T<\/a>) shares to $199 from $185 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. Others making changes include: Wells Fargo\u2019s Christian Wetherbee to US$145 from US$135 with an \u201coverweight\u201d rating, Barclays\u2019 Brandon Oglenski to $185 from $155 with an \u201cequal-weight\u201d rating, Scotia\u2019s Konark Gupta to $199 from $194 with a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating, ATB Cormark\u2019s Chris Murray to $185 from $166 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating, Raymond James\u2019 Steve Hansen to $200 from $198 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating, TD Cowen\u2019s Cherilyn Radbourne to $205 from $191 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating, RBC\u2019s Walter Spracklin to $205 from $195 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. and National Bank\u2019s Cameron Doerksen to $192 from $173 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating. The average is $175.20.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cExpectations were elevated for CN following earnings beats across the rail group and improving momentum in transportation markets. CN exceeded those expectations, delivering 11-per-cent year-over-year EPS growth driven by 5-per-cent RTM [revenue ton mile] growth, strength in grain and energy, and better fuel efficiency. CN modestly raised guidance to reflect sustained demand trends and provided details on the recently signed MOU with Union Pacific, which is expected to enhance CN\u2019s access to Mexico-bound freight opportunities,\u201d said Mr. Poirier. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Wells Fargo analyst Shar Pourreza increased his Capital Power Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CPX-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CPX-T\/\">CPX-T<\/a>) target to $75 from $72 with an \u201cequal-weight\u201d rating. The average is $77.73.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* In a report titled Execution Is The Meat Of The Matter, CIBC\u2019s Ty Collin initiated coverage of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MFI-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MFI-T\/\">MFI-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperformer\u201d rating and $36 target. The average is $37.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWith the CPKR spin-off complete and major capex investments behind it, we view MFI as a simplified CPG business with strong brands that is transitioning into a phase of enhanced cash generation. The company has laid out a credible long-term growth framework, but achieving these targets would require a level of consistency that has not always been typical for MFI. The stock trades at a discount to branded CPG peers, and we see an opportunity for a valuation re-rate as MFI establishes a track record of consistent performance and shareholder-friendly capital allocation,\u201d said Mr. Collin.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* TD Cowen\u2019s Jonathan Kelcher initiated coverage of Vital Infrastructure Property Trust (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/VITL-UN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/VITL-UN-T\/\">VITL.UN-T<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and $6 target. The average is $6.34.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe view Vital as a compelling healthcare infrastructure REIT in transition,\u201d said Mr. Kelcher. \u201cAs capital is redeployed into North America, Vital is positioned to benefit from growing healthcare demand. However, with the units trading above the historical average discount vs peers and execution risk and potential earnings volatility on capital recycling, we view the current valuation as fair.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cVital is coming out of its 2024 strategic review with a new management team and focus. We believe there are a number of positive factors that could drive multiple expansion for the REIT over time, as well as a number of concerns investors may have.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn thinks&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":829289,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[901,888,902,879,877,903,45,49,48,876,895,896,891,878,875,46,549,295,894,887,914,880,881,893,889,890,884,904,885,909,910,912,907,911,905,908,882,898,899,714,897,906,865,61,900,892,886,883,913],"class_list":["post-829288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-alberta","tag-arts-news","tag-bc","tag-breaking-news","tag-breaking-news-video","tag-british-columbia","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-news","tag-canada-sports","tag-canada-sports-news","tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","tag-canadian-breaking-news","tag-canadian-news","tag-economy","tag-education","tag-environment","tag-federal-government","tag-foreign-news","tag-globe-and-mail","tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","tag-government","tag-life-news","tag-lifestyle","tag-local-news","tag-manitoba","tag-national-news","tag-new-brunswick","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","tag-northwest-territories","tag-nova-scotia","tag-nunavut","tag-ontario","tag-pei","tag-photos","tag-political-news","tag-political-opinion","tag-politics","tag-politics-news","tag-quebec","tag-sports-news","tag-technology","tag-travel","tag-trudeau","tag-us-news","tag-world-news","tag-yukon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/829288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=829288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/829288\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/829289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=829288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=829288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=829288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}