Ninety-six percent\u00a0of participants listed an increase in trade tensions among the top three downside risks to Canada’s economic growth.<\/p>\n
Tightening global financial conditions came second at 65%, with 42% naming rising geopolitical risks.<\/p>\n
On the upside, 92% identified an easing of trade tensions as the most significant potential growth driver, with 58% pointing to larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus. Decreasing geopolitical risks, stronger consumer spending, and a stronger housing market were each named by 31% of respondents.<\/p>\n
\u2193 Downside risks<\/p>\n
\n\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tIncrease in trade tensions
\n\t\t\t96%
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tTightening of global financial conditions
\n\t\t\t65%
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tIncreasing geopolitical risks
\n\t\t\t42%
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t
<\/p>\n
\u2191 Upside risks<\/p>\n
\n\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tEasing of trade tensions
\n\t\t\t92%
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tLarger-than-expected fiscal stimulus
\n\t\t\t58%
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tDecreasing geopolitical risks
\n\t\t\t31%
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tStronger consumer spending
\n\t\t\t31%
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tStronger housing market
\n\t\t\t31%
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t
<\/p>\n
Source: Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey, Q2 2026. Respondents selected up to three risks. n = 26.<\/p>\n
Growth outlook dims before the worst landed<\/p>\n
The survey’s GDP forecast carries added weight given its timing. The median real gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for 2026 came in at 1.3% year-over-year,\u00a00.3 percentage points below the prior May survey,\u00a0before recovering to a projected 1.9% by end-2027.\u00a0<\/p>\n