{"id":833212,"date":"2026-07-29T07:49:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T07:49:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/833212\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T07:49:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T07:49:17","slug":"the-battle-brewing-in-canada-is-generational-and-they-are-country-miles-apart-says-pollster-nik-nanos-as-parties-split-youth-vote-the-hill-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/833212\/","title":{"rendered":"‘The battle brewing in Canada is generational, and they are country miles apart,’ says pollster Nik Nanos as parties split youth vote – The Hill Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite a softening of support, the Liberal government maintains a healthy lead over the opposition Conservatives heading into the second half of the summer recess. But with much of that lead attributable to a significant shift in older voters seeking long-term stability, and a closer split amongst the younger cohorts seeking immediacy and disruption, pollsters say the growing generational divide is becoming one of the most important issues in Canadian politics.<\/p>\n

Abacus Data CEO David Coletto told The Hill Times that much of the Liberal government\u2019s national polling lead is created by the shift in support among voters aged 60 and older. At the same time, the Liberals are near-evenly matched with the Conservatives among younger cohorts.<\/p>\n

Coletto noted that the Liberals held a 20-point lead over the Conservatives amongst those aged 60 and older, 52 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively, but that lead fell to just one point amongst voters aged 45-59\u2014with the Liberals at 40 per cent, the Conservatives at 39 per cent, and the NDP rising from five per cent among the 60-plus group to seven per cent.\u00a0<\/p>\n

According to Abacus Data\u2019s latest national survey<\/a> published July 19, the two leading parties are also statistically neck-and-neck amongst the two younger demographics, with the Conservatives holding a two-point lead amongst those aged 30-44, with 40 per cent compared to the Liberals\u2019 38 per cent, as the NDP rises to 12 per cent. Amongst those aged 18-29, the Liberals regain a one-point lead, with 38 per cent of support, followed by the Conservatives at 37 per cent and the NDP at 15 per cent, their highest level of support amongst the four age cohorts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"As the prime minister sets out long-term initiatives, the social contract \u2018is fundamentally under strain because young people are working hard but struggling to pay the bills,\u2019 says pollster Nik Nanos. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade<\/p>\n

Coletto said that, unlike previous election cycles when the Conservatives have received stronger support amongst older voters who view the party as the more stable option, that same cohort of voters is now looking to Prime Minister Mark Carney (Nepean, Ont.) as their economic \u201csafe harbour.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cOlder voters, the \u2018boomers,\u2019 are looking for a government that will protect the value of their home and ensure that their pensions or savings are protected, \u201c Coletto explained. \u201cCarney easily won that question among them during the election, and up until today.\u201d<\/p>\n

Coletto also noted that while the popularity of Carney\u2019s government can also be attributed largely to his personal favourability, with a net positive impression of +19 compared to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre\u2019s (Battle River\u2013Crowfoot, Alta.) -7, the prime minister\u2019s favourability amongst those over 60 is nearly double at +34.<\/p>\n

\"\"Abacus Data CEO David Coletto says older voters view Prime Minister Mark Carney as the economic \u2018safe harbour\u2019 for their homes and pensions. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade<\/p>\n

Pollster Nik Nanos, chief data scientist of Nanos Research, told The Hill Times that he believes the generational split will increasingly become a more-contentious political division than the traditional left-right divide.<\/p>\n

While the Liberals maintain an 11-point lead over the Conservatives nationally in Nanos\u2019 latest tracking, that lead increases to 37 points among voters over the age of 60, with the Liberals receiving nearly 60 per cent support among that cohort. The Liberals also maintain 14-point leads among the 50-59 and 40-49 age groups, but the Conservatives lead with 30- to 39-year-olds by seven points, with the Liberals in a tie with the NDP at 28, and a 15-point lead amongst voters aged 18-29.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe battle brewing in Canada is generational, and they are country miles apart,\u201d Nanos said, adding that while he doesn\u2019t see any brewing revolutionary desire among the younger cohorts, they are nonetheless becoming increasingly dissatisfied with Canada\u2019s social contract.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat contract is fundamentally under strain because young people are working hard but struggling to pay the bills, and the idea of being able to buy a home without help from someone else is a stretch, and as a result, they are impatient and angry,\u201d Nanos explained, noting that those over the age of 60 are \u201cmore likely to be satisfied with the state of things, not want change, and not think the country is broken or that the economic disruption is a threat to you.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"Pollster Nik Nanos says voters on either side of age 60 are \u2018country miles apart\u2019 on the major political issues as younger Canadians grow increasingly pessimistic about their futures. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade<\/p>\n

\u201cThe flip side is that our young people are at the opposite end of the spectrum \u2026 they\u2019re dissatisfied and pessimistic about the future,\u201d Nanos said. <\/p>\n

Nanos also attributes the divide to differences in generational expectations of what \u201clong term\u201d and \u201cimmediate\u201d mean. <\/p>\n

\u201cCarney is playing a long-term game. If you\u2019re over 60, you\u2019re facing less immediate pressures from the economy, but if you\u2019re 25 and can\u2019t pay for groceries, a long-term strategy is hard to take when you\u2019re struggling today,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While Nanos said that Poilievre has a \u201cpolitical edge\u201d with younger voters looking to disrupt or vent their frustration with the system, \u201ceven though they\u2019re fired up, it puts the Conservatives at a disadvantage because young people are the least likely to vote.\u201d<\/p>\n

Voter turnout increased with age during the 2025 election, going from 55 per cent for ages 18-24 to 77 per cent for ages 65-74, before declining to 69.1 per cent for those aged 75 and older. However, voter participation among the youngest cohort increased compared to the previous election by nine points, up from 46.7 per cent in 2021.<\/p>\n

Poilievre can\u2019t \u2018out-Carney\u2019 the PM on stability and retain disruptor edge: Coletto<\/p>\n

While Coletto said he believes there is still a possibility for the Conservatives to win back older voters, it would require a new context in which Poilievre is viewed as a more stable option like he was during then-prime minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s final two years in office.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, in the current context, Coletto said the Conservatives may not be able to win over older voters while remaining competitive with younger demographics, who he said are \u201cmore inclined to want to see change, to break things, and to disrupt.\u201d<\/p>\n

Alongside specific concerns like the cost of living and the economy\u2014which remain the top two priorities for voters in Abacus\u2019 latest polling, at 64 per cent and 37 per cent, respectively\u2014younger voters are becoming increasingly concerned and dissatisfied with Canada\u2019s economic and political systems as a whole, Coletto said.<\/p>\n

While the majority of Canadians still approve of democracy (72 per cent) and a free-market economy (51 per cent), Abacus\u2019 recent survey<\/a> on Canadians\u2019 impressions of various economic and political systems found that younger Canadians are far more receptive to alternatives.<\/p>\n

Among Canadians aged 60 and over, 83 per cent have a positive impression of democracy, but that falls to 62 per cent among those aged 18 to 29, with a similar pattern for positive impressions of a free-market economy, falling from 61 per cent for those 60 and over to 39 per cent for those under 30.<\/p>\n

Those under 30 also have much more positive impressions of alternative systems across the political spectrum, including democratic socialism (43 per cent), socialism (39 per cent), communism (26 per cent), populism (22 per cent), and authoritarianism (17 per cent).<\/p>\n


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\u201cThere\u2019s no widespread appetite for a socialist revolution in Canada, but there\u2019s an appetite among younger Canadians for a disruptor,\u201d Coletto said, noting both Poilievre and NDP Leader Avi Lewis\u2019 stronger polling among younger voters.<\/p>\n

In comparison, Coletto said older voters\u2014particularly homeowners and retirees with pensions\u2014will be far less inclined to feel a system that put them in that position is broken, and are far more concerned with external threats, like international conflicts or the trade war with the United States and President Donald Trump\u2019s continued tariff threats.<\/p>\n

While the Conservatives maintain a lead over the Liberals on the cost of living (36 per cent to 30), the economy (41 per cent to 38 per cent), and housing affordability (31 per cent to 29 per cent), the Liberals hold a 48-point lead over the Tories on the question of who Canadians view as best suited to take on Trump, and a nine-point lead on which party can best handle the threat posed by China and Russia (40 to 31 per cent).<\/p>\n

Coletto said that the national focus will eventually shift back to more domestic economic issues, which would be to the Conservatives\u2019 benefit, but Poilievre can\u2019t \u201cout-Carney\u201d the prime minister to win back older voters while maintaining his edge with younger generations.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Conservatives can\u2019t stay competitive with middle-aged and younger Canadians concerned about the cost of living and their ability to find and keep a job while simultaneously competing to win over the majority of boomers looking for stability,\u201d Coletto explained. \u201cYou can\u2019t be for both sides.\u201d<\/p>\n

sbenson@hilltimes.com<\/a><\/p>\n

The Hill Times<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \n <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Stuart Benson has been covering Parliament Hill for The Hill Times since 2022, reporting on political party apparatuses, advertising, and fundraising, policing and public safety, women and youth, marijuana, Canadian culture and heritage. He is also this paper\u2019s regular “Party Central” columnist. Contact him at sbenson@hilltimes.com.
\n See all stories BY STUART BENSON<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Despite a softening of support, the Liberal government maintains a healthy lead over the opposition Conservatives heading into…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":833213,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[49,48,44],"class_list":["post-833212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/833212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=833212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/833212\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/833213"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=833212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=833212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=833212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}