That is well below the U.S. Department of Agriculture\u2019s July 10 estimate<\/a> of 58 bu. per acre for the state.<\/p>\n \u201cWe still have a good crop, but the top has definitely been taken off,\u201d said Jim Peterson, executive director of the North Dakota Wheat Commission<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ll see where we end up once the combines are parked.\u201d<\/p>\n His guess is they will end up lower than the Wheat Quality Council\u2019s forecast because there has been further heat damage since the tour concluded on July 23 and there was more in the forecast as of July 28.<\/p>\n Peterson was disappointed with the tepid response on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange to the tour\u2019s results. The market responded to the disappointing day one results but has since fallen back.<\/p>\n Read Also<\/p>\n \u201c(The tour) doesn\u2019t seem to get near the market reaction than on the flipside in those years where there\u2019s tremendous yield potential,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The U.S. is one of Canada\u2019s top competitors in the spring wheat market.<\/p>\n Peterson thinks there should be more of a bump in prices considering both the spring wheat and hard red winter wheat crops are going to be shorter than what was anticipated a month ago.<\/p>\n The yield range for the spring wheat crop was relatively narrow this year compared to some years. There was not a lot of sub-30 or over-70 bu. per acre crops on the tour.<\/p>\n However, the tour did not venture into the southwest corner of the state where there are some crops being rolled into hay bales.<\/p>\n That is more a function of an acute hay shortage in Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska than it is a wheat production disaster in that corner of North Dakota.<\/p>\n \u201cThe hay market is just extremely hot,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n But it will take some acres out of the milling market.<\/p>\n Peterson said early planted wheat looks good. There should be strong yields, good test weights, decent protein levels and little disease damage.<\/p>\n It is the later-seeded stuff that he is worried about in the central and southern portions of the state, where temperatures climbed as high as 41 C in July.<\/p>\n The crop in the northern part of the state received plenty of moisture from storms in late-June and early-July. The heat wasn\u2019t as bad in the north and ample soil moisture provided a nice buffer.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen you pulled the plants there was a little more moisture on the roots,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Farmers in the north are cautiously optimistic about their crops, although more disease pressure is evident in that part of the state.<\/p>\n Peterson believes crop quality will be good this year.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re expecting higher protein just with the late season stress,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Test weights will be a \u201cwild card\u201d with the hot and dry finish. There could be some pockets with light test weights.<\/p>\n North Dakota\u2019s corn and soybean producers would benefit from further rains, but the state\u2019s wheat producers are hoping for dry conditions come harvest.<\/p>\n The USDA estimates 44 per cent of the U.S. spring wheat crop was in fair or poor condition as of July 26, which is slightly better than the 47 per cent in those two categories at the same time last year.<\/p>\n Western Producer markets desk analyst Bruce Burnett pegged Canada\u2019s average spring wheat yield at 52.5 bu. per acre following his annual mid-July crop tour<\/a> of the Prairies.<\/p>\n
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