![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Chad-Kelly-copy.jpg\")
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPhoto: Gord Weber\/3DownNation. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n
Week 10 already? Where does the time go? It\u2019s been a great season handicapping the CFL so far, and we\u2019re now entering what should be the best stretch to bet this league.<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re wondering why, the answer is simple: college football and the NFL are returning, meaning sportsbooks will be paying even less attention to the CFL than they usually do. I\u2019ve spoken to several sportsbook directors over the years, and the message has always been clear: once August arrives, the focus shifts.<\/p>\n
The CFL market is largely dictated by early sharp action anyway, but with oddsmakers turning more of their attention to the bigger markets, we could see some very soft numbers over the next few weeks, which is great news for us.<\/p>\n
3DownNation Newsletter<\/p>\n
\t\tToday\u2019s CFL news in your inbox every day at 3 p.m.<\/p>\n
\t\tBy signing up you agree to receive daily emails from 3DownNation, as well as our After a 2-2 debut here at 3DownNation last week, I\u2019m locking in two plays to set us up for a successful Week 10. High totals, more injuries, travel spots \u2014 this week\u2019s slate has it all, and that\u2019s exactly what our job is when breaking these games down.<\/p>\n Eligible sports bettors in\u00a0Ontario<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Alberta<\/a>\u00a0can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.<\/p>\n Stampeders @ Argonauts: Chad Kelly over 343.5 passing yards (-114) \u2014 number good to 349.5<\/p>\n The Argonauts host the Stampeders for their home opener Thursday night in Toronto. Yes, you read that right, a home opener in Week 10.<\/p>\n While Toronto has already technically played three home games this season, this marks the team\u2019s first game at BMO Field. It also features the highest total I\u2019ve seen since handicapping the CFL, opening at 69.5 before settling at 67.5. After breaking down this matchup from every angle, one play continued to stand out above the rest: Chad Kelly\u2019s passing yards prop.<\/p>\n At first glance, 343.5 passing yards is a number that makes you do a double-take, and rightfully so. But there\u2019s a reason this total has been set this high. The number sits 11.6 yards above Kelly\u2019s season average through seven games. Kelly enters Week 10 having completed 162-of-230 passes (70.4 percent) for 2,323 yards, 17 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.<\/p>\n That production includes 445 yards against Montreal and 424 against Ottawa, while he has topped 300 passing yards in five of his seven starts this season. More importantly, those performances aren\u2019t outliers. Kelly has consistently produced at an elite level, and Toronto\u2019s offence is built around his arm and ability to create explosive plays through the air. This number isn\u2019t as intimidating as it looks, it\u2019s simply the level Kelly has been playing at all season.<\/p>\n The matchup only makes this play more appealing. Kelly was banged up in his last outing, making the bye week come at the perfect time. After undergoing further evaluation, he was cleared and is ready to go for Week 10. Having two weeks to prepare before returning to BMO Field feels like an ideal setup for the Argonauts\u2019 offence, especially with a quarterback who has shown the ability to take advantage of favourable matchups.<\/p>\n Calgary may have one of the CFL\u2019s most explosive offences, but the same can\u2019t be said for its defence. The Stampeders rank eighth in the league in points allowed per game and are third worst in passing yards allowed at 312 per contest. Even more concerning, Calgary has surrendered 19 completions of 30-plus yards this season, the most in the CFL. That weakness lines up perfectly with a Toronto offence capable of creating explosive plays through the passing game.<\/p>\n Look, we don\u2019t need this game to replicate the 94 combined points these teams produced in their first meeting. We simply need this matchup to play out the way it sets up on paper: aggressive quarterback play, explosive plays downfield, and plenty of opportunities through the air. Calgary did a good job limiting Hamilton\u2019s passing attack last week, but Kelly and this Toronto offence present an entirely different challenge.<\/p>\n With a healthy quarterback, extra preparation time, and a matchup that perfectly fits his strengths, this feels like another massive spot for Kelly to air it out. Play the OVER on Kelly\u2019s passing yards prop.<\/p>\n Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ BC Lions: Tiger-Cats +6.5<\/p>\n Are there any Ted Lasso fans out there? I hope so because I\u2019m going to need you to be a goldfish and forget about how badly Hamilton treated us last week.<\/p>\n After suffering through that disaster in Week 9, we\u2019re going right back to the Tiger-Cats in Week 10. I\u2019ve said it countless times on my social media platforms: one of the biggest mistakes bettors make is getting too high on teams after a win and too low on them after a loss. If there was ever a spot to put that mindset into practice, this is it.<\/p>\n The story of this game isn\u2019t Hamilton, it\u2019s the betting market. BC opened as a 4.5-point favourite, which already suggested oddsmakers were expecting Nathan Rourke to return<\/a>. Once his return became official, the line quickly climbed to 6.5, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if public money pushes it even higher before kickoff. There\u2019s no question Rourke is one of the CFL\u2019s most valuable quarterbacks, but saying he\u2019s important to the Lions and saying he\u2019s worth nearly a touchdown to the spread are two very different things.<\/p>\n I can\u2019t say enough about how much Rourke means to BC, but I still haven\u2019t seen enough from this Lions team to justify laying this kind of number. Yes, they beat Winnipeg 35-19 last week, but they\u2019re still 2-5 on the season and have battled inconsistency on both sides of the football. Injuries, uneven performances, and an inability to string together complete games have defined BC\u2019s season, and one victory doesn\u2019t suddenly change that.<\/p>\n Hamilton certainly has questions of its own. Tre Ford was benched before halftime last week after completing 4-of\u201310 passes for 58 yards, with Harrison Frost taking over. Scott Milanovich has yet to name his Week 10 starter, and that uncertainty is undoubtedly part of why this number has continued to climb.<\/p>\n Regardless of who starts under centre, though, the Tiger-Cats still have one of the league\u2019s more dangerous offensive groups and rank third in the CFL in rushing. Defensively, they\u2019ve quietly been one of the league\u2019s better pass defences, allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game. That should help limit Rourke\u2019s impact in his first game back.<\/p>\n The public is understandably excited to see one of the CFL\u2019s biggest stars return, and I expect plenty of bettors to run to the window and back BC. That\u2019s exactly why I believe there\u2019s value on the other side. This Lions team hasn\u2019t earned the right to be laying nearly a touchdown, regardless of who\u2019s under centre.<\/p>\n Hamilton burned us last week, but that\u2019s already in the past. It\u2019s also worth noting the Tiger-Cats have quietly won each of their last three trips to BC, going 3-0 both straight up and against the spread since 2023. Sometimes the best betting opportunities come when everyone else is afraid to go back to the same team. I\u2019ll gladly grab the points with the Tiger-Cats one more time.<\/p>\n As always, good luck this week, and feel free to reach out to me on X @McInnisPicks.<\/p>\n Eligible sports bettors in\u00a0Ontario<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Alberta<\/a>\u00a0can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t Andrew McInnis is a sports betting analyst from Halifax, Nova Scotia with over a decade of experience covering and analyzing the CFL and NHL. His betting analysis has been featured on WagerTalk TV, SiriusXM SportsGrid Radio, BetMGM Tonight, and VSiN. A passionate supporter of Canadian football, McInnis is still eagerly waiting for the CFL to expand to Atlantic Canada.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\tterms of service<\/a> and
\n\t\tprivacy policy<\/a>. Unsubscribe anytime.
\n\t\t1900 Rose St, Regina SK S4P 0A9.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/OIP.jpg\")
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/3downnation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/3DownNation-Wordmark-v3-3.svg\"\/)
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Photo: Gord Weber\/3DownNation. All rights reserved. Week 10 already? Where does the time go? It\u2019s been a great…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":847989,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[437],"tags":[166835,166836,291442,2602,6359,49,943,48,7028,521,522,520,271060,14975,527,15655,179126,11139,17052,82,15656],"class_list":["post-847988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-cfl","tag-3down","tag-3downnation","tag-andrew-mcinnis","tag-bc-lions","tag-betting","tag-ca","tag-calgary-stampeders","tag-canada","tag-canadian","tag-canadian-football-league","tag-canadianfootballleague","tag-cfl","tag-cfl-picks","tag-chad-kelly","tag-football","tag-hamilton-tiger-cats","tag-harrison-frost","tag-nathan-rourke","tag-picks","tag-sports","tag-toronto-argonauts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=847988"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/847988\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/847989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=847988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=847988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=847988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}