{"id":861536,"date":"2026-08-17T17:12:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T17:12:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/861536\/"},"modified":"2026-08-17T17:12:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T17:12:14","slug":"how-blue-jays-schedule-stacks-up-against-other-wild-card-contenders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/861536\/","title":{"rendered":"How Blue Jays’ schedule stacks up against other wild-card contenders"},"content":{"rendered":"

Several factors will determine whether the Toronto Blue Jays<\/a>\u2019 push for a playoff spot is successful, and one that could play a significant role is their schedule \u2014 and the schedules of their direct rivals.<\/p>\n

The Blue Jays have a difficult week ahead, going to Tampa Bay and New York, but beyond those series, all of their games will be played against teams that have sub-.500 records. That\u2019s good news for a team with a .549 winning percentage against those clubs this year and a .440 percentage against teams above .500.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean that Toronto is in for a cakewalk. Understanding the effect the schedule is likely to have on the race requires a closer look at a variety of factors.<\/p>\n

\nStrength of schedule\n<\/p>\n

When examining how the schedule could affect the wild-card race, the most intuitive thing to look at is strength of schedule. It\u2019s not a perfect measure, as injuries, in-season acquisitions and how a team is playing can mean its overall record isn\u2019t fully reflective of the challenge they present on a given day.<\/p>\n

To account for this, FanGraphs\u2019 SOS metric<\/a> is based on how many games opponents are projected to win rather than their literal record. Comparing the Blue Jays’ basic and advanced strength-of-schedule marks with other teams positioned to fight for the third AL wild-card spot provides a good overview of where they stand.<\/p>\n

\"\"\/<\/p>\n

\nHome vs. road games\n<\/p>\n

Home\/road splits are a bit simplistic, and outside of extreme ballparks that warp how the game is played, they are unlikely to inspire extensive and fascinating discussion. It\u2019s often hard to quantify the value of things like the ability to stick to a precise routine, familiarity with a home ballpark and home teams\u2019 likelihood of being less fatigued than their opponents.<\/p>\n

Still, in the vast majority of cases, teams are significantly better at home than away, so it matters how the locations of games are distributed down the stretch. This is an area where Toronto is at a disadvantage in the weeks to come.<\/p>\n

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Games against fellow third wild-card contenders<\/p>\n

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The extent to which this is an advantage changes depending on where you are in the race. Notably, Toronto has far more chances to hand its rivals losses than its competition, but that could be a mixed blessing, depending on how the team performs in those games. If the Blue Jays slip in August, clawing their way back might be slightly easier because a September surge could come at the expense of other wild-card hopefuls.<\/p>\n

The team most affected by this situation is likely the Mariners, because they are chasing six teams in this race and don\u2019t have many opportunities to hurt the teams ahead.<\/p>\n

\nZoom in on the Blue Jays\n<\/p>\n

Breaking the Blue Jays\u2019 schedule into smaller chunks doesn\u2019t change any of the overall numbers, but it adds a little context. While Toronto\u2019s strength of schedule isn\u2019t significantly softer than their competitors’, the team\u2019s tough matchups are front-loaded.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If a piece in this exact format ran next Monday, it would show the Blue Jays don\u2019t have as tough a road as the other wild-card hopefuls. The catch there is that the club has to survive a difficult week ahead on the road. Toronto is coming off a series win against the Yankees, but they are no easy foe and the Blue Jays\u2019 struggles at Tropicana Field are well documented<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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If the Blue Jays are in a comparable position in the wild-card race as they are now in a week, their chances of making the playoffs will jump significantly.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nThe verdict for Toronto\n<\/p>\n

The Blue Jays should consider the schedule as favourable to them, but not to a radical degree. The team has an extremely difficult week ahead that will significantly impact its prospects, and plays on the road more than any club in the race. The Blue Jays’ large allotment of games against other wild-card contenders could be beneficial, but could also hurt them if they have a cold stretch at the wrong moment.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sitting one game out of a playoff spot with 36 remaining isn\u2019t a bad place to be. In the context of where the Blue Jays were three weeks ago, it\u2019s an unbelievable spot. The schedule looks like it will be more helpful than harmful down the stretch, but the Blue Jays will still need to capitalize on the opportunities before them \u2014 and hope none of the other teams in the race go on a massive run like the Boston Red Sox\u2019s 27-3 stretch<\/a> that vaulted them above the crowded field midway through the season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Several factors will determine whether the Toronto Blue Jays\u2019 push for a playoff spot is successful, and one…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":861537,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[49,48,82],"class_list":["post-861536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sports","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/861536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=861536"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/861536\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/861537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=861536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=861536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=861536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}