{"id":864493,"date":"2026-08-20T03:08:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T03:08:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/864493\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T03:08:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T03:08:09","slug":"mexico-is-watching-canada-u-s-trade-talks-closely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/864493\/","title":{"rendered":"Mexico is watching Canada-U.S. trade talks closely"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Drama has often characterized the U.S.-Mexico relationship under U.S. President Donald Trump, who has mused about sending U.S. troops into Mexico to combat drug cartels \u2013 an idea vehemently opposed by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.David Ramos\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

The trade<\/a> talks between Canada and the United States have drawn intense interest from Mexican officials, as the tentative deal between Ottawa and Washington is expected to become the template for Mexico\u2019s negotiations with the Trump administration, according to analysts. <\/p>\n

Sources told The Globe and Mail the U.S. wanted to strike a deal with Canada on autos similar to the agreement it is negotiating with Mexico. Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, the country\u2019s point person on international trade, confirmed<\/a> shortly after midnight Wednesday that he had met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss tariffs<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Analysts say Mexico watched the Canada-U.S. negotiations with an eye on rules of origin in the automotive sector, which has mushroomed in Mexico over the past 30 years of continental free trade. \u201cWhatever Canada agrees with the U.S. will become the departing point\u201d for Mexico-U.S. talks, said Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, a former Mexican vice-minister of foreign trade and researcher at the Universidad Panamericana in Mexico City.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe probably have to agree to what we can in order to lower the burden of those tariffs and then live to negotiate another day,\u201d he said of the Mexican negotiating position.<\/p>\n

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum did not address the Canada-U.S. trade talks during her Wednesday news conference.<\/p>\n

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Ms. Sheinbaum’s administration has made concessions to the U.S. in a bid to keep the border open to its exports, including cracking down on migrants, and handing over alleged crime bosses, among others.Eduardo Verdugo\/The Associated Press<\/p>\n

Mexico and the U.S. have already held three rounds of talks to review the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, with a fourth scheduled for September. Mr. Greer has spoken positively of discussions with Mexico, describing the Mexican side as \u201cpragmatic,\u201d while also observing in July: \u201cThey are quite dependent on our market for their growth and for their employment. They know that we know that. That\u2019s why we\u2019re able to proceed in a fairly non-dramatic way with the Mexicans.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the U.S. side injected drama into trade talks with Mexico Tuesday, alleging Mexico was dumping strawberries into the U.S. market during the winter months. Mexico\u2019s Economy Secretariat expressed concern over the preliminary decision by the U.S. Department of Commerce, saying it used two \u201carbitrary concepts,\u201d including a previous decision from the U.S. International Trade Commission that \u201cthere was no basis to accept the existence of a product called \u2018winter strawberries\u2019 as something different from the product \u2018strawberries.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Drama has often characterized the U.S.-Mexico relationship under U.S. President Donald Trump, who has often mused about sending U.S. troops into Mexico to combat drug cartels \u2013 an idea vehemently opposed by Ms. Sheinbaum. <\/p>\n

Mexico has been eager to strike a deal with the U.S. to renew the USMCA, which is critical for its manufacturing-for-export economy. The country sends more than 80 per cent of its exports to America. And, unlike Canada, Mexico has not openly courted other countries as alternate markets or spoken of ruptures with the U.S. <\/p>\n

Mexico not looking to cut separate deal with U.S. and leave Canada out, top diplomat says<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cMexico can\u2019t leave the negotiation table without the USMCA,\u201d said Diego Marroqu\u00edn, a Mexican trade expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. \u201cThe economy will obviously stagnate without it. \u2026 There is no way that they can maintain the current social program structure that has made President Sheinbaum so successful electorally.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the U.S. has agreed to more talks in September, some observers caution against reading that as a sign that Mexico is pursuing a more sound strategy than Canada.<\/p>\n

\u201cCanada is nowhere close to where Mexico is regarding the USMCA review process,\u201d said Arturo Sarukh\u00e1n, a former Mexican ambassador in Washington. \u201cBut at the same time, despite the vindictiveness in the Trump administration and of the President toward Canada, Canada is nowhere as vulnerable politically and diplomatically in terms of hard power than where Mexico is.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ms. Sheinbaum has made quiet and frequent concessions to keep the U.S. border open to Mexican exports. Her administration has cracked down on migrants transiting Mexico, handed over 92 alleged crime bosses to U.S. authorities, stopped shipping oil to Cuba at the behest of the Trump administration and settled water debts with the U.S.<\/p>\n

But the pressure keeps coming from Washington, especially as the Trump administration targets politicians from the ruling Morena party over accusations of corruption and alleged ties to drug cartels.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are three points of leverage: tariffs, military action and Morena politicians,\u201d said Brenda Estefan, a geopolitics professor at the IPADE business school in Mexico City.<\/p>\n

Andrew Coyne: There is no appeasing Donald Trump, or deterring him<\/a><\/p>\n

The U.S. Department of Justice has indicted the Morena governor of Sinaloa state \u2013 home to the eponymous drug cartel \u2013 on drug charges. Rub\u00e9n Rocha Moya has taken a leave of absence but denies any wrongdoing and has accused the U.S. of trying to weaken Morena.<\/p>\n

Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Beltr\u00e1n, the son of former president Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, recently revealed in an angry three-page letter<\/a> to Mr. Trump that he had his U.S. visa revoked \u2013 an act he branded \u201ca crude and perverse act of villainy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Morena leaders have rallied around Mr. L\u00f3pez Beltr\u00e1n, known as \u201cAndy,\u201d with Ms. Sheinbaum calling the visa revocation \u201cinterference in Mexican politics.\u201d<\/p>\n

Analysts saw the ruling party protecting itself. \u201cIf the Americans later release damaging information or take additional action against Andy or other Morena figures, the base has already been given the interpretation: \u2018We told you this was political persecution,\u2019\u201d said Luis Antonio Espino, a Mexican political analyst in Toronto. \u201cFuture evidence can then be absorbed as confirmation of the original persecution narrative.\u201d<\/p>\n

The U.S. pressure on Mexico has stoked uncertainty. And economic growth remains sluggish. But analysts point to signs of resilience in the Mexican manufacturing sector. The AI boom has sent Mexican exports of computer equipment soaring in 2026, overtaking the automotive sector as Mexico\u2019s leading export category<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe manufacturing exporting industry in Mexico has been resilient enough, strong enough to find its way around the geopolitical situation and the tariffs,\u201d Mr. Baker Pineda said.<\/p>\n