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\n Updated:
\nAug 22, 2026 , 06:06 AM ET<\/p>\n
\u2022 4 min read<\/p>\n
Don’t miss Robert Criscola’s expert picks for the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway!<\/p>\n
Photo By – Reuters Connect. NASCAR Cup Series driver Christopher Bell.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\udfc1Dollar Tree 301: Key takeaways<\/p>\n
Best pre-qualifying prediction: Christopher Bell to win (15%) \u2014 two-time winner here can nab first checkered flag of ’26.
\nBest pre-qualifying value: Chase Briscoe to win (9%) \u2014 hard to knock his recent form.
\nBest pre-qualifying prop: Ross Chastain Top 10 (36%) \u2014 showing improved speed of late, price more than fair.
\nTrack: Don’t abuse the brakes or the tires.
\nWeather: Cool and cloudy, chance of rain late.<\/p>\n
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account Check out the full Dollar Tree 301 field<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Driver Name Ryan Blaney Christopher Bell Denny Hamlin Joey Logano Chase Briscoe Ty Gibbs Josh Berry Kyle Larson Chase Elliott Tyler Reddick Odds as of 8-22. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi<\/a>.<\/p>\n Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market\u2019s estimated probability of an event occurring.<\/p>\n Dollar Tree 301 predictions (updated Saturday)<\/p>\n Outright: Christopher Bell to win (15%) Who’s hot? Who’s not?<\/p>\n \ud83d\udd25 Denny Hamlin \u2014 Four straight Top 5s entering Sunday. Track breakdown: What wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway?<\/p>\n Due to the nearly-flat banking in the turns at New Hampshire, heavy braking is required. The key is not to abuse the brakes, or the rear tires will pay the price. Key stats & driver profiles to target<\/p>\n Chevrolet last won at New Hampshire in 2012 (Kasey Kahne). Drivers to watch<\/p>\n Joe Gibbs Racing has the most wins at New Hampshire (14), and has taken three of the last four checkered flags here.<\/p>\n Odds movement & market notes<\/p>\n I can’t imagine Carson Hocevar still sitting at 1% on race day. He typically qualifies well (sixth-best in the Cup Series) and has hovered at 7% for the majority of races on ovals in 2026. Outright picks: Winner predictions Can No. 20 finally get first win of the season?<\/p>\n Track Fit: Two-time winner here, including dominant ’24 run. Risk: Buy-in is on the expensive side.<\/p>\n Pick made on Saturday, 8-22.<\/p>\n Pick 2: Chase Briscoe to win (9%)<\/p>\n Enters New Hampshire in razor-sharp form.<\/p>\n Track Fit: Three straight Top 10s here. Risk: 6-for-204 all-time in Cup Series action.<\/p>\n Pick made on Saturday, 8-22.<\/p>\n Best top finish predictions Getting overlooked during a “down” year.<\/p>\n Track Fit: Top 10 in four of last five visits. Risk: Only five Top 10s in 24 races in ’26.<\/p>\n Pick made on Saturday, 8-22.<\/p>\n Pick 2: Josh Berry to finish Top 10 (54%)<\/p>\n Another week, another track in Berry’s wheelhouse.<\/p>\n Track Fit: Top 3 in both prior Cup Series tries at this oval. Risk: Steep price is biggest knock.<\/p>\n Pick made on Saturday, 8-22.<\/p>\n Start trading with Kalshi today!<\/p>\n![\"Add](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1787401090_656_google-preferred-source-badge.png\"){kind=icon}
<\/a>Dollar Tree 301 odds: Favorites & full field<\/p>\n
\n![\"Kalshi\"](\"https:\/\/img.covers.com\/betting\/sportsbooks\/336\/kalshi.svg\")
Probability<\/p>\n
\n20%<\/a><\/p>\n
\n15%<\/a><\/p>\n
\n13%<\/a><\/p>\n
\n12%<\/a><\/p>\n
\n9%<\/a><\/p>\n
\n7%<\/a><\/p>\n
\n6%<\/a><\/p>\n
\n6%<\/a><\/p>\n
\n5%<\/a><\/p>\n
\n4%<\/a><\/p>\n
\nOutright: Chase Briscoe to win (9%)
\nTop 10: Ross Chastain (36%)
\nTop 10: Josh Berry (54%)<\/p>\n
\n\u2744\ufe0f Erik Jones \u2014 No Top 20s in last four efforts.<\/p>\n
\nThe preferred racing line will gradually migrate to the bottom. Running the apron too early can chew up tires quickly.<\/p>\n
\nQualifying is not as crucial here as it is at some other venues. Over 44% of prior winners have come from outside the Top 10 starting spots.<\/p>\n
\nHendrick Motorsports hasn’t won here since 2012 and has been in poor form overall. Don’t expect much support for Kyle Larson, William Byron, or Chase Elliott this weekend.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nPick 1: Christopher Bell to win (15%)<\/p>\n
\nRecent Form: Second in four of last six overall.
\nMarket Value: 16% is the limit.<\/p>\n
\nRecent Form: Sixth or better in four straight.
\nMarket Value: 12% is as far as I go.<\/p>\n
\nPick 1: Ross Chastain to finish Top 10 (36%)<\/p>\n
\nRecent Form: Seventh with 40 laps led at Iowa, better-than-it-looks 12th at Richmond.
\nMarket Value: Cutoff point is 43%.<\/p>\n
\nRecent Form: Rides season-long three-race Top 10 streak.
\nMarket Value: Not much flexibility here; cap at 56%.<\/p>\n