Of the 90 Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec MNAs elected in 2022, 45 won\u2019t be on the ballot again in 2026<\/a> (and two others are running with other parties).<\/p>\n Gone from the slate of candidates are such familiar names as Christian Dub\u00e9, Genevi\u00e8ve Guilbault, Lionel Carmant and Sonia LeBel, plus former premier Fran\u00e7ois Legault, who stepped down in January<\/a> but is finishing his term as an MNA.<\/p>\n Some, like Transport Minister Benoit Charette<\/a>, left it to the last minute; Charette announced on Wednesday that he will not run again, a mere week before the expected campaign launch.<\/p>\n Four out of 11 Qu\u00e9bec solidaire MNAs have thrown in the towel. The Liberals are down one. All seven Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois MNAs are running again.<\/p>\n Of the five party leaders, only the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois\u2019s Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the Conservatives\u2019 \u00c9ric Duhaime have experienced the full cut and thrust of a campaign, both in 2022.<\/p>\n CAQ Leader and Premier Christine Fr\u00e9chette<\/a>, Liberal Leader Charles Milliard<\/a> and Qu\u00e9bec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal are all first-timers.<\/p>\n But as the election campaign\u2019s official launch nears \u2014 Fr\u00e9chette is expected to pull the plug on the current legislature on Aug. 27 and call the vote for Oct. 5 \u2014 the battle is well underway.<\/p>\n If it feels like the parties have been campaigning for weeks, it\u2019s because they have.<\/p>\n The five main parties \u2014 the CAQ, the Liberals, Qu\u00e9bec solidaire, the PQ and the Conservatives \u2014 have spent the last few weeks announcing the names of candidates. The smaller Canadian Party of Quebec<\/a> has 25 candidates listed on its website.<\/p>\n The campaign \u2014 which could run between 33 and 39 days \u2014 will focus on policies, personalities and the ability to debate under pressure. The television ad campaigns are already rolling.<\/p>\n There are two additional ridings now up for grabs, for a total of 127. The magic number of seats to form a majority government is now 64.<\/p>\n Overall, between 800 and 1,000 candidates representing 20 political parties will be in the running. A total of 6.4 million Quebecers are eligible to vote.<\/p>\n So, what is the lay of the land as the parties gas up the traditional campaign buses that will criss-cross the province for five weeks?<\/p>\n In the 2022 campaign, it was pretty clear the CAQ was heading for the domination of Quebec. The party went on to win 90 seats and a second majority government. <\/p>\n The same cannot be said about Quebec\u2019s 44th election.<\/p>\n The CAQ enters this race in decline. The downturn started in 2023 when the party lost a byelection in the Quebec City riding of Jean-Talon<\/a> to the PQ.<\/p>\n The once-moribund PQ has roared back to life under St-Pierre Plamondon and starts the race perceived as the front-runner, despite its plans for an independence referendum most Quebecers don\u2019t want.<\/p>\n But on the eve of the election call, Quebec remains divided, voters undecided.<\/p>\n In an analysis of three separate polls<\/a> (Pallas Data, L\u00e9ger and Synopsis) last week, polling projection analyst Philippe J. Fournier said five parties in the race \u201cleaves plenty of uncertainty\u201d over the composition of the legislature.<\/p>\n All three polls show<\/a> more or less the same data: the PQ leads with about 30 per cent support. The Liberals are in second with about 26 per cent and the CAQ is at about 20 per cent.<\/p>\n The Conservatives\u2019 support is pegged at about 15 per cent, while Qu\u00e9bec solidaire is at the bottom of the list with around nine per cent.<\/p>\n The PQ leads in the critical francophone voter category, which decides the fate of the vast number of ridings off the island of Montreal.<\/p>\n The Synopsis poll, done for La Presse, gives the PQ 37 per cent of the francophone vote, the CAQ 24 per cent and the Liberals 16 per cent. That gives the PQ a good shot at forming the next government, but campaigns are often full of surprises.<\/p>\n The level of undecided voters remains high in all three polls, with L\u00e9ger concluding one out of two voters (about 49 per cent) says they might change their mind.<\/p>\n As is usually the case in Quebec, it will be a battle for regions and 20 or so ridings that pivot each election.<\/p>\n An epic showdown is expected between the PQ and Conservatives in the Quebec City region. Montreal could see some battles between the Liberals and QS, while in the suburbs around the island \u2014 known as the \u201c450\u201d ridings \u2014 the PQ and CAQ will be fighting over francophone nationalist voters.<\/p>\n There will be three debates. All of them will be in French.<\/p>\n In this campaign, Fr\u00e9chette is expected to position herself as a beacon of economic and political stability compared to St-Pierre Plamondon, who promises a referendum.<\/p>\n In the four months she has been leader, Fr\u00e9chette has managed to distance herself from the unpopular Legault and is campaigning under the \u00c9quipe Christine Fr\u00e9chette banner, with no mention of the CAQ.<\/p>\n She has almost single-handedly given the party new life.<\/p>\n St-Pierre Plamondon enters the race brimming with confidence but needing to soften up his image with voters, many of whom see him as a distant academic with a short fuse around reporters. He has been seen playing tennis with star Alexis Galarneau and mini-putt with the legendary Carl Carmoni.<\/p>\n Last week the PQ leader extended a hand to the English-speaking community<\/a>, which traditionally votes Liberal, via an open letter in the National Post.<\/p>\n This week he made another strategic move, announcing that a PQ government would not launch its independence referendum as long as Donald Trump<\/a> is still president.<\/p>\n What remains to be seen is how much the PQ\u2019s independence agenda figures into the day-to-day dynamics of the campaign. The party is campaigning on a good-government ticket, telling voters the CAQ has not respected its promises and mismanaged Quebec.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, polls show Milliard is an unknown figure for many Quebecers. Taking over the Liberals following the abrupt departure of former leader Pablo Rodriguez<\/a> in December 2025, Milliard has scrambled to get himself seen and improve the image of the party, which has been rocked by ethical issues.<\/p>\n He is expected to appeal to Quebecers who want a change of government but don\u2019t want the referendum the PQ is promising.<\/p>\n Duhaime never really stopped campaigning after the 2022<\/a> election. This time, he will focus most of his efforts in the Quebec City region, where his Conservatives consistently poll higher than the CAQ. This week he became the first to present an election platform, which includes massive cuts in government spending.<\/p>\n Analyst Fournier\u2019s vote projection site Qc125<\/a> says the Conservatives should win three ridings and have a probable chance of seven or eight others. The magic number for the Conservatives is 12, which would give them official party status in the legislature.<\/p>\n QS, which has struggled in the polls for two years, will be battling to stay relevant in a crowded field and not lose ridings it managed to win in 2022.<\/p>\n Whoever wins on Oct. 5 faces some big challenges. In her pre-election report on the status of Quebec\u2019s finances<\/a>, released Monday, auditor general Christine Roy said the next government will face a gaping $5-billion hole in the budget.<\/p>\n That may temper the zeal of some politicians to promise the moon to Quebecers on the campaign trail.<\/p>\n \t\tEditor\u2019s Picks\t<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0821-electprep.jpg\")
From left: Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec Leader Christine Fr\u00e9chette, Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard, Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Qu\u00e9bec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal and Conservative Party of Quebec Leader \u00c9ric Duhaime. Evan Buhler, Allen McInnis, Francis Vachon and Tim Snow \/ Montreal Gazette<\/p>\n
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