The Miami Heat needed shooting. It\u2019s hard to do better than Klay Thompson.<\/p>\n
The Heat signed Thompson seconds after he was bought out from the Dallas Mavericks on Friday afternoon. Miami landed him on a team-friendly two-year, $11.5 million deal with a team option on the second season, according to insider Keith Smith<\/a>. Thompson figures to compete with Tim Hardaway Jr. for the starting shooting guard spot this season, and should be a real rotation piece for a team that hopes to contend in the Eastern Conference.<\/p>\n Thompson is still one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA. He attempted 16.6 three-pointers per 100 possessions last season, which was only topped by Steph Curry and LaMelo Ball. He knocked them down at a 38.8% clip, which is still well above league-average. Thompson isn\u2019t the defender he once was, but he graded out much better on that end than Hardaway Jr. did last season. Klay was a 55th percentile defender in Dallas last year according to EPM<\/a>, while Hardaway Jr. finished in the sixth percentile in the same metric. Thompson\u2019s one-year defensive true shooting impact was +1.2 according to RAPM, while Hardaway\u2019s was -0.3.<\/p>\n This seems like a great fit on paper. Miami made the biggest swing of the offseason by landing Giannis Antetokounmpo from the Milwaukee Bucks. Giannis might have more downhill rim gravity than any player in the league. There\u2019s really only one way to stop his rumbles to the basket, and that\u2019s by building a wall with multiple defenders. Antetokounmpo has become a good enough passer to kick out in those situations and find teammates. Thompson is a hell of a release valve beyond the arc when Giannis is seeing multiple bodies inside.<\/p>\n Heat fans are already championing this signing as their version of getting Ray Allen back in 2013. All Allen did the next season was hit one of the most iconic shots in NBA history. No pressure, Klay. While I can\u2019t fault Heat fans for getting excited, I tend to think that is way, way too optimistic. Thompson\u2019s fit in Miami feels better on paper than it will be in reality.<\/p>\n Ultimately, I don\u2019t think adding Thompson moves the needle for the Heat all that much.<\/p>\n You don\u2019t fix NBA spacing simply by adding shooters. You fix it by adding shooting to spots on the floor where it didn\u2019t already exist. The Heat were already going to be getting shooting from the two-guard spot whether it\u2019s Hardaway Jr. or Thompson or rookie Ryan Conwell taking those minutes. The reason the Heat\u2019s spacing will likely be poor is because of the pairing between Giannis and Bam Adebayo in the front court, two players defenses will gladly ignore on the perimeter when it really matters.<\/p>\n A shooting leap from Davion Mitchell would help fix the Heat\u2019s spacing. His percentage looks great after making 39.5% of his threes last year. The problem is that he only took 5.3 threes per 100 possessions, making him the 13th highest-volume three-point shooter on a Heat roster last year that finished No. 18 in three-point rate. Pelle Larsson taking a shooting leap would improve the Heat\u2019s spacing. He only made 32.3% of his threes on 4.8 attempts from deep per 100 possessions last year. Andrew Wiggins was better \u2014 41.4% from three on 7.5 threes per 100 — but his shooting volume will have to rise this year too even if it means sacrificing some accuracy.<\/p>\n I just don\u2019t think Miami\u2019s shooting will scare anyone when the game slows down in the playoffs. Giannis will still be seeing multiple bodies in the paint, and unless Bam is ripping seven threes like he did in his 83-point game against the Wizards last season, defenses will be happy to ignore him on the perimeter as a fake floor spacer.<\/p>\n There was a time when Thompson was so devastating as a movement shooter that his very presence could unlock elite spacing. He\u2019s not there anymore. The biggest issue with Thompson is he can\u2019t dribble at all anymore, and that makes him one of the worst two-point scorers in the NBA.<\/p>\n Thompson made 41.8% of his two-pointers last year. The worst qualified two-point scorer in the league last season was Bub Carrington, who made 44.3% of his twos<\/a>. You can find a few full-time players who were less efficient than Thompson from two-point range last year \u2014 Jamal Shead, Sion James, Patrick Williams, Mike Conley Jr., Jordan Hawkins, and Gabe Vincent among players who played at least 50 games last season \u2014 but not many. At this point, all opposing defenses have to do is run Klay off the three-point line and he immediately becomes a non-threat.<\/p>\n When Klay is run off the arc, he also tends to turn the ball over a lot. He\u2019s had a passing turnover rate of 16% or greater for each of the last four years. That\u2019s real bad. His 16% passing turnover rate last season ranked in the 19th percentile for all players<\/a>. He adds no value in the possession game with his rebounding, either, and he\u2019s not causing any havoc on defense these days. He ranked in the first percentile of deflections per 100 possessions, and the fourth percentile of forced turnovers per 100 possessions. Thompson can still execute the assignment to some extent defensively, but he\u2019s not going help you get out in transition or get you any extra possessions.<\/p>\n It\u2019s also kind of shocking that Klay has been below league average in true shooting for every season since 2019 \u2014 when he suffered a devastating torn ACL in the NBA Finals and then a torn Achilles while rehabbing. The fact that Thompson is even still in the NBA at age-36 is pretty miraculous, but there\u2019s a reason he\u2019s a buy out guy.<\/p>\n I feel like Hardaway Jr. will be a better fit for the Heat than Klay despite his defensive limitations because he\u2019s a more dynamic offensive player while still being an elite outside shooter. The best case scenario for Miami is that Pelle Larsson or Myron Gardner or Dru Smith or Conwell develops enough to eventually grab those minutes, because they are more well-rounded players than either Klay or THJ.<\/p>\n