{"id":871752,"date":"2026-08-26T05:22:15","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T05:22:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/871752\/"},"modified":"2026-08-26T05:22:15","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T05:22:15","slug":"can-lando-norris-be-f1s-iron-man-plus-ask-our-mailbag-anything","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/871752\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Lando Norris be F1\u2019s Iron Man? Plus: Ask our mailbag anything!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prime Tire Newsletter | This is The Athletic\u2019s F1 newsletter. Sign up here<\/a> to receive Prime Tire directly in your inbox twice a week during the season and weekly in the offseason.<\/p>\n

Welcome back to Prime Tire, where today I\u2019m wondering what we\u2019re going to do without Zandvoort\u2019s lovely banked corners. *Listens to earpiece.* I\u2019m hearing\u00a0the Madrid circuit has a very big one<\/a>. All good. Bye, Zandvoort!<\/p>\n

(As we\u2019ll get into further below,\u00a0we\u2019re launching a Prime Tire mailbag,\u00a0where no question is a stupid question. Curious or confused about\u00a0anything\u00a0in F1,\u00a0send it in<\/a>!)<\/p>\n

I\u2019m Patrick, and Madeline Coleman will be along shortly. Let\u2019s go.<\/p>\n

I Am Iron Man Unlikely to Win: How Norris can seize the title<\/p>\n

So, Lando Norris, reigning F1 champion and McNuggets fan, has won two straight races. He pulled off a winning move at the Dutch GP that has Mercedes fans a little rattled.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s\u00a083 points back<\/a>\u00a0of leader Kimi Antonelli, with 11 races and one sprint remaining. We asked\u00a0our WhatsApp group<\/a>\u00a0what\u2019s on their minds this week, and so many of our followers asked the same question:\u00a0Can Norris win the title this year?\u00a0(Luke Smith wrote about this, too<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s crunch some math and throw some wet blankets.<\/p>\n

There are\u00a0283\u00a0points left (11 GPs and the Singapore sprint). So Norris\u2019 points ceiling is\u00a0442.
\nIf Antonelli simply finishes second in every remaining race and second in the sprint, he ends with\u00a0447.
\nSo\u00a0Norris winning every remaining race is still not enough.\u00a0Antonelli has to actively drop points \u2014 he can score at most 200 of the remaining 283 (71 percent) even against a flawless Norris.<\/p>\n

What that looks like:<\/p>\n

Norris needs a net swing of\u00a07.6 points per round,\u00a0which is roughly a win-while-Antonelli-finishes-second every single weekend, for 11 weekends.
\nI went forward in time, to view alternate futures. To see all possible outcomes of the coming conflict. All 14,000,605 of them \u2026 like Doctor Strange in \u201cAvengers: Endgame.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Norris wins between five and eight of the 11 races, with no non-scoring finishes.
\nAntonelli suffers between one and three DNFs or non-scores. This\u00a0has\u00a0to happen for Norris to have a chance.<\/p>\n

Two structural factors work in Norris\u2019 favor, though:<\/p>\n

1. A Mercedes civil war.\u00a0Russell is only 59 points back and just took a sprint win (and openly grumbled about team orders at Zandvoort). Every time Russell beats Antonelli, he caps Antonelli\u2019s haul at 18, rather than 25. And Antonelli has already conceded that Mercedes is \u201cclearly not the fastest car on the grid any more.\u201d Norris needs that fight to stay live and messy.<\/p>\n

2. Oscar Piastri is out of it with 104 points, so McLaren can throw everything behind one car without a title-costing internal argument. Mercedes and Ferrari both still have two drivers to balance<\/p>\n

That said, yeah \u2026 don\u2019t count on this endgame. But will Norris be a factor?\u00a0Oh yes, as Luke points out here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hey, Wait A Minute: Are the Silver Arrows slowing down?<\/p>\n

Madeline wrote yesterday that\u00a0Mercedes finally looks beatable<\/a> \u2014\u00a0and beyond that, it looks like it\u2019s stalled.<\/p>\n

Zandvoort looked like a Mercedes weekend. Russell took pole and won the sprint, and Antonelli led Norris for most of Sunday. Then the McLaren came around the outside at Turn 1 on Lap 54, and that was that \u2014 Norris won by 11.5 seconds,\u00a0with\u00a0Mercedes reduced to inverting<\/a> its own drivers over the radio just to protect a double podium.<\/p>\n

The simple fact is that McLaren\u2019s development has caught up to Mercedes.\u00a0Mercedes\u2019 points haul has fallen steadily: 135 in the first three rounds, then 109 in the next three, then 89 and 92. McLaren has gone from 46 points in the first three to 84 over the most recent three. Ferrari has been pulling in the same level of points as Mercedes since the summer.<\/p>\n

Toto Wolff was blunt about the cause<\/a>:\u00a0\u201cWe haven\u2019t got the money to put developments on the car.\u201d<\/p>\n

Upgrades\u00a0are coming, but not for another two or three races. The cushion may not feel this comfortable for much longer.<\/p>\n

Head here for more on Mercedes\u2019 predicament<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Inside the Paddock with Madeline Coleman<\/p>\n

Yuki Tsunoda paused for a lengthy several seconds as he contemplated a question thrown to him in the post-race written media pen on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Had his chances of returning to F1 in 2027 increased after\u00a0his Dutch GP weekend performances<\/a>? <\/p>\n

He even turned to his press officer for help, before giving a light-hearted answer as he walked off to his next media engagement: \u201cCall me, please.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Japanese driver has been on the sidelines this F1 season as a test and reserve driver for Red Bull. But for the Dutch GP weekend, he was tapped to replace Liam Lawson at Racing Bulls while Lawson filled in for an injured Isack Hadjar at Red Bull.<\/p>\n

Since Tsunoda\u2019s last grand prix in Abu Dhabi last season, he\u2019s only driven four times, he said. But he hadn\u2019t actually driven this car in these regulations in a live racing session until Friday.<\/p>\n

He felt he \u201cwas able to progress faster than (he) expected\u201d last weekend. What he found challenging, though, was learning about the different deployment buttons and procedures, as everything is completely different from the ground effect era.<\/p>\n

Tsunoda\u2019s main goal remains getting back into F1. The 2027 F1 driver lineups haven\u2019t been finalized yet, but could Tsunoda\u2019s name be in the mix?<\/p>\n

He managed to stay close to Arvid Lindblad\u2019s lap times, and Tsunoda finished the race 11th after qualifying 12th.<\/p>\n

\u201cI know what I can do, and I think I pretty much showed what I can do to most of the paddock,\u201d he said. \u201cWith just one race and a couple of sessions, I was able to fight close to the points. Honestly, I think the outcome obviously (would have been) better scoring points, but I think I did as much as I can for now.\u201d<\/p>\n

Back to you, Patrick.<\/p>\n

Wonder Aloud: Introducing the Prime Tire mailbag<\/p>\n

*Infomercial voice*: Here at Prime Tire, we know F1 can be confusing.<\/p>\n

We know you\u2019ve nodded along while your friends argued about the cost cap and smiled politely through a stewards\u2019 investigation, secretly wondering what a \u201clap-time delta\u201d even is.<\/p>\n

Friend, you are not alone. That\u2019s why we\u2019ve come up with the\u00a0Prime Tire mailbag<\/a>, a revolutionary new way to get answers without the shame or fear of being ostracized by fellow commenters.<\/p>\n

No question too basic. No question too deep. Team orders got you flustered? SEND IT IN. Want to know what the little wing thingy on the front does? We won\u2019t tell a soul you asked.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t spend another Sunday pretending you know what ADUO means. Leave your question here<\/a>. Alex and I are standing by.\u00a0(Well, he\u2019s on vacation right now. And I might be reading Wookiepedia or something. But usually, we\u2019re standing by.)<\/p>\n

Disclaimer: Prime Tire mailbag answers not guaranteed to make you sound smart at parties. Individual results may vary. Technical explanations are void where the regulations have already changed. Do not operate a race car while reading. Side effects may include correcting strangers on the internet, developing strong feelings about tire compounds and using the phrase \u201cin the high-speed corners\u201d in casual conversation. Not responsible for friendships ended or fantasy leagues lost. If you experience a stewards\u2019 inquiry lasting more than four hours, that\u2019s just normal. Questions submitted may be edited for length, clarity or because you spelled \u201cH\u00fclkenberg\u201d without the umlaut. <\/p>\n

Also, feel free to email us at PrimeTire@theathletic.com whenever.<\/p>\n

Outside the Points<\/p>\n

\ud83e\udd76 Wondering why the driver market seems frozen?\u00a0Luke has all the details right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\ude24 Lewis Hamilton was\u00a0pretty upset with his team<\/a>\u00a0during the race for not making Charles Leclerc get out of the way at Zandvoort. So mad that, in classic Hamilton classiness, he apologized yesterday on Instagram.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcf2 The FIA has\u00a0condemned online abuse of F1 stewards<\/a>\u00a0after the Dutch GP.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\uddf3\ud83c\uddf1 Finally, wanted to share two farewell stories to the Dutch GP, which won\u2019t return to the calendar next year.\u00a0Here\u2019s Madeline<\/a>\u00a0on why such a successful race is leaving, and\u00a0Luke taking one last journey on the \u201cMax Express\u201d train<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udce3 Want more? Good news.\u00a0The\u00a0Athletic\u2019s F1 WhatsApp I mentioned earlier is entirely unhypothetical.\u00a0Click here to subscribe<\/a>!<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love Prime Tire? Check out The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Prime Tire Newsletter | This is The Athletic\u2019s F1 newsletter. Sign up here to receive Prime Tire directly…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":871753,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[441],"tags":[49,48,578,576,577,82],"class_list":["post-871752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-formula-1","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-f1","tag-formula-1","tag-formula1","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/871752","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=871752"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/871752\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/871753"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=871752"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=871752"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=871752"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}