![\"Shane](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/NASCAR-Shane-van-Gisbergen-2026-New-Hampshire-GettyImages-2291568109.webp\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
By Andrew Clarke<\/p>\n
Date posted: 28 August 2026<\/p>\n
Shane van Gisbergen heads to Daytona with his NASCAR championship hopes in his own hands, but the equation is not quite as comfortable as a 31-point advantage might suggest.<\/p>\n
The New Zealander enters Saturday night\u2019s Coke Zero Sugar 400 holding the 16th and final position in NASCAR\u2019s new-look Chase, with 586 points to Ryan Preece\u2019s 555.<\/p>\n
There are three Chase positions still available, with Bubba Wallace 14th on 630 points, Austin Cindric 15th on 599 and van Gisbergen 16th. Preece is the first driver outside on 555, while Brad Keselowski remains mathematically alive on 520.<\/p>\n
What SVG needs to do<\/p>\n
For SVG, the simplest equation is this: do not allow Preece to outscore him by 32 points.<\/p>\n
If van Gisbergen can keep Preece\u2019s gain to 31 points or fewer, the RFK Racing driver cannot jump him on points.<\/p>\n
There is an even cleaner number for the Trackhouse Racing driver.<\/p>\n
If SVG scores 45 points or more at Daytona, his Chase position is mathematically safe regardless of what Preece does.<\/p>\n
Under NASCAR\u2019s revised 2026 points system, a victory is worth 55 points, while second is worth 35, third 34 and so on. Another 20 points are available across the opening two stages, making the maximum possible score 75 points.<\/p>\n
With his existing 31-point buffer, a 45-point haul would put van Gisbergen beyond Preece even if the American produced a perfect 75-point race by winning both stages and the race.<\/p>\n
A victory therefore settles the argument immediately. Second place combined with 10 stage points would also get SVG to 45, as would third with 11 stage points.<\/p>\n
If he somehow collected the maximum 20 stage points, even 12th at the finish would be enough to reach the magic number.<\/p>\n
![\"last](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/NASCAR-Shane-van-Gisbergen-2026-Talladega-500-Crash-GettyImages.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
Shane van Gisbergen and Ryan Preece, the two drivers now fighting over the final NASCAR Chase position, were already tangled together at Talladega in April, with Austin Dillon caught in the same incident under caution. Image: Sean Gardner\/Getty Images<\/p>\n
Stage points could be crucial<\/p>\n
But van Gisbergen does not necessarily need anything approaching 45 points.<\/p>\n
The real job is to collect points throughout the race and keep the No. 60 Ford of Preece somewhere within sight on the scoreboard.<\/p>\n
Stage points could prove particularly valuable if SVG finds himself shuffled backwards or caught in one of Daytona\u2019s inevitable late-race accidents.<\/p>\n
Keselowski represents the more remote danger. He is 66 points behind SVG and can score a maximum of 75, meaning van Gisbergen needs only a modest points return to effectively remove the 2012 Cup Series champion from the equation.<\/p>\n
And even if Preece does manage to gain the required 32 points, SVG would not automatically be eliminated.<\/p>\n
Cindric begins the race only 13 points ahead of van Gisbergen, so a poor night for the Penske driver could potentially leave both SVG and Preece inside the top 16.<\/p>\n
It is precisely the sort of mathematical mess Daytona specialises in creating.<\/p>\n
![\"Shane](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/NASCAR-SVG-leads-the-Daytona-field-August-2025.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
Shane van Gisbergen leads the field at Daytona in the 2025 Coke Zero Sugar 400, the same race that will now decide whether he makes the 2026 NASCAR Chase. Image: Chris Graythen\/Getty Images<\/p>\n
Daytona remains the great unknown<\/p>\n
Van Gisbergen\u2019s record at the 2.5-mile superspeedway does little to reduce the tension.<\/p>\n
He has yet to score a top-10 finish from four Cup Series starts at Daytona, although his oval and drafting-track form has improved markedly during 2026.<\/p>\n
He has twice finished sixth at EchoPark Speedway in Atlanta this season, a track where the racing has increasingly resembled the pack-style competition seen at Daytona and Talladega.<\/p>\n
The bigger complication this weekend is that everybody will be learning on the run.<\/p>\n
NASCAR has introduced a revised superspeedway package for Daytona, with no practice before the race. That means the first time SVG experiences the package in a full race pack will be when the championship points are already being handed out.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s really hard to know, it\u2019s such an unknown track,\u201d van Gisbergen said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s typical Daytona, but also the rule package change as well. Just a lot of unknown. Would have loved to leave New Hampshire last weekend with more of a cushion of course, like we entered with.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut being in season-long championships all my life, it\u2019s a cool feeling knowing that we have a shot at making The Chase.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a cool pressure to feel.\u201d<\/p>\n
For SVG, the target is therefore straightforward even if accomplishing it at Daytona may be anything but.<\/p>\n
Score heavily in the stages, stay out of trouble and make sure Preece does not take 32 points out of him.<\/p>\n
Do that and van Gisbergen will begin his second NASCAR Cup Series championship campaign at Darlington.<\/p>\n
![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/AA-MREC_300x250.jpg\")
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