{"id":873928,"date":"2026-08-28T00:36:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T00:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/873928\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T00:36:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T00:36:09","slug":"what-trade-war-mortgage-rates-are-in-wait-and-see-mode","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/873928\/","title":{"rendered":"What trade war? Mortgage rates are in wait-and-see mode"},"content":{"rendered":"

Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n

The next BoC rate decision is set for Wednesday. The central bank is expected to hold interest rates, given it needs time to understand the impact of the intensifying trade war.Graeme Roy\/The Canadian Press<\/p>\n

Canada may be embroiled in an escalating trade war with the U.S., but mortgage markets aren\u2019t blinking yet.<\/p>\n

Bond yields (which largely determine fixed mortgage rates) and expectations around Bank of Canada interest rate decisions (which directly impact variable mortgage rates) remained relatively unchanged after trade talks broke down<\/a> last week and new tariffs were announced by both the U.S. and Canada. <\/p>\n

Markets still expect a rate hike later this year, and bond yields remain at an elevated level, keeping the lowest five-year fixed rates above 4 per cent.<\/p>\n

Five ways to create financial certainty in uncertain times<\/a><\/p>\n

The muted response may come as a surprise. <\/p>\n

A breakdown in trade talks could negatively affect the Canadian economy in the coming months, raising the prospect of lower fixed and variable mortgage rates as bond yields and central bank interest rates fall, according to CIBC. <\/p>\n

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC, says markets aren\u2019t flinching yet because they\u2019re treating the escalation of tariffs as short-term posturing for further negotiations. Investors believe the current animosity won\u2019t last.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt this point the market isn\u2019t convinced at all that we\u2019re in a full-scale trade war,\u201d Mr. Tal said.<\/p>\n

However, Mr. Tal said the current calm in the market could unravel if there isn\u2019t a trade deal by Sept. 8, when the Carney government\u2019s countertariffs of up to 50 per cent on a wide range of American goods are scheduled to come into force. <\/p>\n

Ottawa lays out strategy to hit back at $27.6-billion in U.S. products<\/a><\/p>\n

Bond swaps markets, which capture investor expectations around BoC rate decisions, currently expect multiple rate hikes by early 2027. Mr. Tal said the BoC could end up holding rates steady if the trade war persists, and cuts could even be possible if tariffs begin increasing. <\/p>\n

A lot could change in the next week or two, he said.<\/p>\n

The next BoC rate decision is set for Wednesday. The central bank is expected to hold interest rates, given it needs time to understand the impact of the intensifying trade war. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

What do you want to know about mortgages?<\/p>\n

\nDo you have a mortgage question for our expert? Is a variable or fixed rate the best option? Does it make financial sense to refinance? Is it better to consult your bank or go to a mortgage broker? <\/p>\n

Submit your questions below and Ratehub’s Penelope Graham could answer it in an upcoming column.<\/p>\n

Mortgage rates are sourced by Ratehub.ca. For a comprehensive list of today\u2019s mortgage rates for each term\/type, visit ratehub.ca\/best-mortgage-rates<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ratehub.ca is a mortgage-rate comparison marketplace and mortgage brokerage. It helps millions of Canadians compare and obtain the best mortgage rates, credit cards, insurance, deposits and loan products.<\/p>\n

Rates shown are the lowest available for each term\/type and category (insured versus uninsured) as of Thursday afternoon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Open this photo in gallery: The next BoC rate decision is set for Wednesday. The central bank is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":873929,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46,2741],"class_list":["post-873928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-pf-ca"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/873928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=873928"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/873928\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/873929"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=873928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=873928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=873928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}