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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWarren Luky hopes there\u2019s a brighter future on the horizon for the province\u2019s mining sector. (United Steelworkers)\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
In light of the bitter collapse in trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. on Aug. 21 \u2014 a historic blow to cross-border relations \u2014 these phrases are bound to become more contagious.<\/p>\n
But this is Thompson, a city of 13,000 situated on the edge of the world\u2019s fifth-largest nickel deposit that has endured through decades of uncertainty that\u2019s come with such factors as China\u2019s hard grip on global critical-mineral supply.<\/p>\n
A takeover of the Thompson Mine Complex by Vale Base Metals from Inco in the early 2000s led to downsizing the city\u2019s Vale workforce by nearly 40 per cent. Hundreds more jobs were later slashed with the closing of Vale\u2019s Birchtree mine, along with its smelting and refining operations.<\/p>\n
More recently, however, the economic winds are shifting more favourably.<\/p>\n
Earlier this year, Vale inked a deal with three partners \u2014 including the federal government \u2014 to invest up to $280 million in the mine complex, which includes two underground mines and an adjacent mill. The consortium plans to hire more workers and double mining output in five years.<\/p>\n
In Thompson\u2019s hockey rinks, Legion hall and lunchrooms, Luky says it\u2019s not unusual for heady economic topics to come up. And right now, those conversations are sprinkled with a cautious sense of optimism.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe average miner is only so woke,\u201d Luky says. \u201c(But) never underestimate miners for their intelligence\u2026 (they\u2019re) very savvy about the world markets, they\u2019re very savvy about what\u2019s going on in trade, how minerals impact everybody.\u201d<\/p>\n
Raw commodities can be volatile, with demand and prices swinging with global forces far beyond local control. Today\u2019s geopolitical turmoil is intensifying demand for certain resources, and as a result, casting a spotlight on Prairie oil, uranium, wheat, canola, potash, nickel and other \u201ccritical minerals.\u201d<\/p>\n
In Canada, that refers to 34 metals and minerals, including nickel \u2014 called \u201ccritical\u201d because the federal government considers them essential to the country\u2019s security.<\/p>\n
Earlier this year, Ottawa announced the $2-billion Canada Critical Minerals Accelerator fund to push the production of minerals that both the country and its allies need, as Prime Minister Mark Carney positions Canada as an alternative to Chinese supply.<\/p>\n
For now, minerals remain among the commodities exempt from U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s new 50 per cent tariffs, which came into effect Saturday. But Canada is increasingly looking beyond the U.S. to sell its lithium, nickel and other minerals.<\/p>\n
Critical minerals are key to manufacturing solar panels, EV batteries and other technology associated with green-energy transition. They also underpin modern defence arsenals, such as precision-guided missiles, submarines and electronic warfare systems.<\/p>\n
And it\u2019s not just Manitoba\u2019s mines being championed as crucial to Canada\u2019s mineral strategy. It\u2019s also the Port of Churchill on Hudson Bay \u2014 hundreds of kilometres further north from the Thompson mining belt through dense Canadian Shield, peat bog and permafrost.<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t For the first time in six years, Prairie grain is shipping via the port in late August or early September, followed this fall by the first overseas shipment from Manitoba\u2019s sole potash mine. Nickel and zinc concentrates are also slated to leave Churchill for Europe this year.<\/p>\n A major expansion of the port, owned by Arctic Gateway Group, is touted as a candidate for one of Canada\u2019s Major Projects, with Ottawa and the province already committing $262 million to rail-line and port upgrades and a feasibility study.<\/p>\n For all the Churchill buzz, Luky calls infrequent shipments from the port merely \u201csymbolic.\u201d But he also says many people in Manitoba\u2019s northern mining communities are carefully eyeing Churchill\u2019s developments and broader implications.<\/p>\n \u201cCan we make (Churchill) profitable this year, next year? F\u2014- no. But down the road, it\u2019s coming,\u201d he says. \u201c(Miners are) talking about the clown show with Trump \u2026 You got to give Trump credit where credit is due. He put geopolitics onto the f\u2014-ing map \u2026 It woke up the country.\u201d<\/p>\n After the Canada-U.S. trade negotiations failed, Carney vowed to match U.S. tariffs \u201cdollar for dollar\u201d and said: \u201cThey asked too much and they offered too little \u2026 you\u2019re at war when you\u2019re attacked, and we got attacked.\u201d<\/p>\n Sharp words. But Canada\u2019s defensive nationalism, of which its critical-mineral strategy and diversification efforts are key aspects, is ongoing. Its stated priorities include doubling Canada\u2019s non-U.S. exports, greater domestic processing and refinement capacity, expanding domestic artificial intelligence power and more than doubling national defence spending.<\/p>\n Backed by a mandate to double national electrification, Ottawa is also pursuing a series of mega-projects surrounding energy, ports and pipelines.<\/p>\n It turns out, last year\u2019s \u201celbows up\u201d messaging in response to Trump\u2019s bullying and trade salvos has more to do with factories, mining, oil and the military than hockey, CanCon and supporting your local brewery.<\/p>\n While the neighbouring Prairie provinces have seemed more fixated on provincial sovereignty, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew has called for a \u201cTeam Canada approach\u201d and vocally backs Carney for walking away from the negotiating table.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t Kinew\u2019s government promotes critical-mineral development \u2014 with the premier telling the prime minister \u201cManitoba is the Costco of critical minerals\u201d \u2014 and emphasizes Churchill\u2019s port and rail line as vitally important to national priorities.<\/p>\n Nonetheless, since Carney took office in the spring of 2025, many efforts in Canada and Manitoba to stimulate strategic industries haven\u2019t shifted the country\u2019s trade dependence away from the U.S. For instance, after being refined in Ontario, Thompson\u2019s nickel largely flows south of the border, where the U.S. government is attempting to choke off Chinese supply.<\/p>\n A similar pattern goes for aerospace production, which has received notable provincial stimulus in the past couple of years. Manitoba has one of the country\u2019s largest aerospace sectors, but it remains deeply integrated into supply chains associated with American defence.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \u201cWe know that (Manitoba\u2019s) economy and our exports will rely heavily on our largest trading partner and our closest geographical market,\u201d Manitoba Business Minister Jamie Moses said in late spring shortly before announcing a new Manitoba trade office in India.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not one versus the other. It\u2019s \u2018how do we do both?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n However much the logic still holds, these comments were made before Trump\u2019s latest tariffs \u2014 which the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce estimates would impact 5.2 per cent of the province\u2019s exports \u2014 and renewed efforts, in the last hours of last week\u2019s trade negotiations, to limit the countries with whom Canada can sign trade deals.<\/p>\n Today, the balancing act between U.S. and non-U.S. trade feels especially fraught.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re attacking our entire country, and we can\u2019t stand for it,\u201d said Moses said at a news conference this week, where he stressed the importance of the Port of Churchill expansion to \u201cdiversify away from the United States of America.\u201d<\/p>\n Fletcher Baragar casts doubt on just how much of the wave of Canada\u2019s new economic nationalism Manitoba can catch \u2014 and shift from U.S. dependency.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re looking for ways to diversify further away from (the U.S.). Under those circumstances, Manitoba is not well-positioned,\u201d says the University of Manitoba economics professor.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t Manitoba\u2019s exports to non-U.S. markets have increased since 2019. But the province\u2019s landlocked status, apart from its narrow shipping season via Churchill, constrains that capacity.<\/p>\n But diversification is not just about new trading partners, he stresses. It\u2019s about specialization, entering new sectors or moving into \u201chigher-value\u201d areas \u2014 like aerospace, finance and tech, or processing and refinement of raw commodities \u2014 to stabilize the economy and improve Canada\u2019s leverage within existing trade relationships.<\/p>\n Despite its modest GDP, Manitoba may look like a model province in this respect; a microcosm of the eclectic economy Ottawa is trying to foster nationally.<\/p>\n Manitoba has resource-heavy industries characteristic of the West, like mining and farming, but it also has something of a central-Canada flavour, with notable financial, insurance and manufacturing sectors.<\/p>\n And, of course, the province is a major hydroelectric player. It\u2019s going to take a lot of power to \u201cbuild, baby, build,\u201d to invoke Carney\u2019s pledge, and Manitoba has relatively cheap and clean energy to offer.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \u201cThe critical-minerals (push) is really interesting\u2026 It\u2019s a mixed-bag, but certainly, some industries fit fairly well (with nation-building), clearly Hydro,\u201d Baragar says, displaying a guarded admiration for the NDP government\u2019s moves toward Hydro expansion.<\/p>\n This includes Indigenous-led wind generation, with several First Nations and the Manitoba M\u00e9tis Federation competing for a share of Hydro\u2019s planned 600-megawatt allocation; new backup combustion turbine capacity at Brandon\u2019s generating station; and long-term plans for building out northern transmission to service Indigenous communities \u2014 and support northern economic growth, around power-intensive areas like mining.<\/p>\n But critics argue the province\u2019s growth ambitions for Hydro, which holds $25 billion in debt, depend on overly optimistic assumptions in uncertain areas. Wildfire and drought can quickly impose enormous costs, and major Hydro initiatives can serve as lightning rods of controversy for environmental and other reasons.<\/p>\n Manitoba Hydro president and CEO Allan Danroth (whose departure from the Crown corporation was announced Friday<\/a>) recently revealed he and staff members have faced \u201ceight credible threats\u201d while defending the Brandon turbine plan, a $3-billion initiative that will rely entirely on fossil fuel.<\/p>\n Nation-building-styled ambitions for Manitoba \u2014 whether tech centres supporting \u201cdata sovereignty,\u201d critical minerals, wind farms or northern infrastructure upgrades \u2014 tend to hinge on greater electricity abundance.<\/p>\n They also depend on the trust of the communities where these projects take shape. This balancing act has been pronounced in debates over data centres \u2014 from the hyper-scale \u00cele-des-Ch\u00eanes AI centre cancelled by Kinew in June over environmental concerns to a smaller facility under construction in the RM of Rosser, which faces a petition with over 2,000 signatures.<\/p>\n This same tension is palpable surrounding some mining developments, such as the Sio Silica proposal to extract high-purity silica sand in southeastern Manitoba.<\/p>\n Although the project was promoted by Carney at the G7 Leaders\u2019 Summit in June, the Alberta company has already been denied an environmental licence here once \u2014 and faces sustained pushback from area residents.<\/p>\n Other projects seem more rooted in local community and consent, though it may be years before they come to fruition.<\/p>\n One of them is Minago \u2014 also in the Thompson nickel belt and owned by Norway House Cree Nation \u2014 which touts rare platinum metal potentials, alongside its magnesium and nickel deposits.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t Its proponents describe it as containing a \u201ca treasure chest of all sorts of critical minerals\u201d and Canada\u2019s \u201cfirst, 100 per cent First Nation owned critical-mineral asset.\u201d<\/p>\n Mostafa Fayek, professor in the University of Manitoba\u2019s department of earth sciences, says the project is \u201cgeologically interesting\u201d but voices caution about Minago\u2019s financial feasibility at a large industrial scale.<\/p>\n There are other challenges too: Norway House carries more than $130 million in debt and is engaged in a legal battle with HLL, its former financial consultant.<\/p>\n Jim Rondeau, director of Norway House\u2019s major projects, has said Minago needs an investment of at least $1 billion \u2014 and more electricity in the area \u2014 before it can begin realizing annual multi-billion dollar output potential.<\/p>\n \u201cIf governments don\u2019t support shovel-ready, fully Indigenous-owned critical-mineral projects, it signals a major failure,\u201d Jason Rasevych, president of the Anishnawbe Business Professional Association, told the Free Press in June.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen you look at Indigenous sovereignty, it is no longer a roadblock to the Canadian industry, it is a fast-track mechanism to get projects built.\u201d<\/p>\n Although the new Hydro push positions First Nations as owners and beneficiaries, a history of mistrust remains, rooted in First Nations\u2019 experiences of flooding, contamination and displacement in the wake of hydroelectricity projects in the North.<\/p>\n \u201cThe track record at building trust is weak,\u201d Baragar says. \u201cPart of changing this is about acknowledging the mistakes that have been made\u2026 But (Hydro) should be actively thinking, \u2018Where do we want to be five years from now, 10 years from now, 15 years from now?\u2019 And then provide some support for that.\u201d<\/p>\n Complex dynamics between Indigenous self-determination and national sovereignty agendas also play out at the Port of Churchill.<\/p>\n Beyond the hundreds of millions already spent on upgrades, supporters envision more build-outs to help transform Churchill into a thriving gateway for minerals and Prairie commodities \u2014 potentially even Alberta oil and gas \u2014 to overseas markets.<\/p>\n In September, Manitoba will pitch greater Churchill expansion to leading international investors at the inaugural Canada Investment Summit in Toronto but skeptics point to the steep hurdles facing the loftiest visions for \u201cPort of Churchill Plus\u201d \u2014 from a short, ice-constrained shipping season to daunting costs, environmental concerns, questions about First Nations consent and other limitations.<\/p>\n \u201c(Such as) improving the transportation corridor \u2014 the problem is it\u2019s not (currently) a year-round port,\u201d Baragar says.<\/p>\n A new feasibility study suggests year-round shipping from the port may ultimately be possible, though it would depend on purchasing expensive ice-hardened vessels.<\/p>\n The port and its railway also have substantial Indigenous ownership via the Arctic Gateway Group, with plans of further facilitating development through the creation of a new Manitoba Crown-Indigenous Corporation. It also has public support of the Manitoba Keewatinowi Okimakana, the political advocacy organization representing 26 northern First Nations.<\/p>\n But a possible liquid natural gas pipeline from Alberta to Churchill, which Kinew promotes, could trigger the Crown\u2019s duty to consult First Nations.<\/p>\n Similar questions of Indigenous consent surround a newly proposed pipeline from Alberta to Ontario, where Manitoba finds itself in the middle of a national debate. Critics contend that east-west corridors, though potentially shifting Alberta from its deep dependency on U.S. markets, would saddle Manitoba with the greatest risks.<\/p>\n While Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta\u2019s premiers are fully on board, Kinew has said he is \u201cwilling to entertain the idea\u201d but wants \u201cIndigenous governments onside\u201d and \u201cworkers taken care of.\u201d<\/p>\n When it comes to the dynamics between Western Canada and Ottawa\u2019s \u201cnation-building\u201d drive, Baragar, citing the National Policy of 1879, stresses the tensions are hardly new.<\/p>\n The policy was designed to diversify Canada\u2019s economy through industrialization and reducing reliance on the U.S. while strengthening east-west trade. In practice, its fruits were shared unevenly: tariffs buffered Ontario and Quebec manufacturers, while Manitoba\u2019s farmers endured higher costs for manufactured goods and transporting grain eastward via the new railway.<\/p>\n Uttered by some Prairie conservatives like a swear word today, the National Policy is invoked as proof state-led efforts at diversification often ultimately hurt Western producers. Talk to some of Manitoba\u2019s farmers, and you\u2019ll hear similar points about the burdens of nation-building on them.<\/p>\n Third-generation Starbuck farmer Chuck Fossay points to the adverse effects of Canadian tariffs.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t Manitoba farmers have largely escaped U.S. tariffs on agricultural exports in recent years, while Canada\u2019s retaliatory tariffs on steel have driven up the cost of tractors, combines and other equipment.<\/p>\n \u201cThe biggest tariffs that (have) bothered farmers are steel,\u201d he says, while also voicing skepticism about some facets of \u201cdiversification.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI can remember back in the late \u201990s, early 2000s, diversification was a buzzword,\u201d says Fossay. \u201cThe government was always telling you, whenever farmers had financial troubles, \u2018Well, diversify. Don\u2019t just grow wheat and barley \u2014 diversify, maybe have some livestock, maybe have some oil seeds.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n With thousands of acres of canola, wheat, soybean and oat crops, Fossay\u2019s operation may seem reasonably diversified. But he feels for younger farmers exploring new areas of operation.<\/p>\n \u201cCan a young person, or anybody who\u2019s just getting into the business, be able to withstand (the) instability, not being able to get paid, or maybe having to wait eight months or a year or more to get paid?\u201d<\/p>\n Canada\u2019s current diversification push is also about moving up the value chain \u2014 including processing and refining more of what is produced at home instead of simply shipping raw commodities south.<\/p>\n Manitoba\u2019s agricultural sector, a pillar of the economy, has significant processing capacities for produce like canola, peas and potatoes. Head west from Winnipeg and you\u2019ll see some of the centres of Manitoba\u2019s value-added corridor: Roquette and McCain in Portage la Prairie, Canada Packers in Brandon, HyLife in Neepawa.<\/p>\n Nevertheless, about half of agri-food exports still exit the province unprocessed. And about half its agri-food exports go to the U.S.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not surprising Fossay doubts the Port of Churchill will significantly reorient Prairie grain toward Europe.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m 72 years old, and I\u2019ve been hearing about the potential of Churchill for over 65 years, and it hasn\u2019t really happened,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Fossay recalls the days when the now defunct Canadian Wheat Board, a government-created monopoly for the marketing and sale of wheat and barley, shipped hundreds of thousands of tonnes of grain each year via the port. But he suggests market forces don\u2019t really favour this export route today.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t Colin Hornby, general manager of Keystone Agricultural Producers, sounds a more optimistic note.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s still concerns\u2026 (but) we just need to keep the momentum moving. And if this is a project of national interest, that\u2019s great,\u201d he says, adding that AGG is actively in discussion with KAP about greater possible use of the port by farmers.<\/p>\n Hornby and Fossay stress the risks to farmers of over-reliance on U.S. markets, a point that lands painfully right now. Manitoba\u2019s major ag exports like bulk grains and oil seeds are exempt from the new 50 per cent tariffs. But the province\u2019s dairy producers and beekeepers could see American demand for milk and honey, which are among the commodities targeted by tariffs, plummet.<\/p>\n \u201cBeeMaid is in Winnipeg. They\u2019re one of the largest honey packers and producers in Canada. So, definitely a huge concern for us,\u201d Fossay says.<\/p>\n Both Fossay and Hornby also view Ottawa\u2019s willingness to reduce Canada\u2019s tariffs on Chinese EVs, in exchange for Beijing lowering tariffs on Canadian canola, as a step in the right direction.<\/p>\n \u201cThat was an instance where I think the West \u2014 and western Canadian farmers \u2014 felt like, finally, they were put ahead of the interests of Ontario,\u201d Hornby says.<\/p>\n Nearly three years into his mandate, Kinew remains Canada\u2019s most popular premier.<\/p>\n Quick-witted, bullish and combative with critics, he also has an unusual ability to make Manitobans feel that distinct interests \u2014 labour, business, environmental, Indigenous \u2014 can be harmonized on a path to making Manitoba a \u201chave province.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019s too early to grade Kinew\u2019s overarching economic agenda, with timelines for the most ambitious provincial projects extending years into the future.<\/p>\n In the meantime, Manitoba stands out as an intriguing test case for Canada\u2019s broader nation-building thrust.<\/p>\n \u201cTo some extent one can indeed read Manitoba\u2019s economic diversity as a microcosm of the diversity Ottawa is promoting,\u201d says Baragar, the U of M economist. \u201cGood working relations with Ottawa become essential as an economic strategy, as increasingly does good working relations with First Nations.\u201d<\/p>\n Even with gradual diversification of trade partnerships \u2014 and the panic caused by Trump\u2019s latest tariffs \u2014 there\u2019s no avoiding the fact Manitoba remains deeply economically integrated with the U.S. At the same time, Manitoba\u2019s diversified industrial base can help stabilize its economy in the face of global shocks and uncertainty.<\/p>\n Whatever the future entails, it\u2019s time to get over seeing Manitoba as a flyover hinterland. With Manitoba\u2019s Arctic tidewater access, hydroelectric power, underexplored mineral deposits, Norad command centre and vital role in reconciliation conversations, the province\u2019s position in Canada\u2019s future has rarely felt more strategically relevant.<\/p>\n winnipegfreepress.com\/conradsweatman<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t Conrad Sweatman Conrad Sweatman is an arts reporter and feature writer. Before joining the Free Press full-time in 2024, he worked in the U.K. and Canadian cultural sectors, freelanced for\u00a0outlets including The Walrus, VICE and Prairie Fire. Read more about Conrad.<\/a><\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIncreasing capacity of Port of Churchill is frequently touted as a candidate for one of Canada\u2019s major project designations. (John Woods \/ The Canadian Press files)\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPremier Wab Kinew (left) has touted the province\u2019s critical minerals as key to Prime Minister
\nMark Carney\u2019s economic sovereignty vision. (Mike Sudoma\/ Free Press files)\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBusiness Minister Jamie Moses says it\u2019s time to reduce the province\u2019s reliance on U.S. markets. (Mikaela MacKenzie \/ Free Press files)\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFletcher Baragar (Submitted)\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAfter several years of upheaval, economic fortunes are beginning to turn for Thompson\u2019s nickel mine complex. (AirScapes)\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNorway House Cree Nation Chief Larson Anderson announces the roughly $10-million purchase of 100 per cent of the mining rights attached to the Minago nickel project in 2024. (Mike Deal \/ Free Press files)\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tChuck Fossey on his farm near Starbuck (Ruth Bonneville \/ Free Press files)\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tKeystone Agricultural Producers\u2019 Colin Hornby says an over-reliance on U.S. markets exposes Manitoba farmers to risk. (Mike Deal \/ Free Press files)\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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