The first trend is the push by former U.S. Olympic players to leave Canadian teams to play in low tax American jurisdictions, such as Dallas, Las Vegas and Florida. This trend impacts all Canadian teams, as well as teams in Democrat states in the United States, the so-called Blue states, any jurisdiction that has much higher taxes. An example of that is Dylan Larkin pushing to leave Detroit and Zack Werenski’s rustlings in Columbus.<\/p>\n
The second trend impacts all rebuilding teams in the NHL. Philadelphia’s massive offer sheet to young Leo Carlsson has distorted the market for Restricted Free Agents for now. There’s been a sudden and extreme increase in the percentage of the salary cap those 20-to-25 year-old players are able to garner on their second NHL deals, after their entry level contracts run out. The most recent example is Zeev Buium, 20, of the Vancouver Canucks<\/a> signing an eight-year deal at $9.38 million per year.<\/p>\n How does this impact the Edmonton Oilers<\/a>?<\/p>\n The good news? Neither trend should have much, if any, impact on the Edmonton Oilers during the McDavid-Draisaitl era. After that, important socio-political changes may well have occurred in North America, and the NHL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement might also have changed to factor in each jurisdiction’s tax situation.<\/p>\n Yes, it’s harder for Edmonton to compete for players who have a major focus on maximizing their salary and minimizing their taxes, but Alberta has the lowest provincial tax<\/a> of any Canadian jurisdiction and it also has no provincial sales tax. The tax situation isn’t as dire here as it is in Montreal, Toronto or Ottawa, not to mention some Blue state cities in the USA, such as the California and New York teams.<\/p>\n The Trump Factor<\/p>\n It’s also the case that relations haven’t been this tense and angry between Canada and the US, and between American Red and Blue states, in many decades.<\/p>\n The disgust many feel for U.S. president Donald Trump is extreme and widespread.<\/p>\n Would it follow that young, high-earning, alpha male hockey players \u2014 the kind of people who may bwell e friendly towards Trump and\/or his policies \u2014 don’t feel welcome in cities with high majority concentrations of anti-Trumpers? That’s in part what we saw with Brady Tkachuk wanting a trade out of Ottawa, correct? That was a high profile example, but it might well be a driver for other players and their families who seek to play in more welcoming cities.<\/p>\n This trend could end with Trump’s coming exit from politics in 2028. It could also be that instead of increased and growing division and differences between right-wing and left-wing jurisdictions in North America, we could see a trend towards them becoming more alike once again.<\/p>\n In any case, Alberta’s teams are somewhat insulated from this particular trend, and as a lifelong Oilers fan that’s my main concern, not what happens to the Maple Leafs, Canucks or Habs.<\/p>\n And the Oilers also don’t have any high profile American players just now, either. The team’s top players at this point are all Canadian or European, though Ryan Shea and Ike Howard could change that equation.<\/p>\n Rebuilding teams beware<\/p>\n The second major trend \u2014 the rapid rise in pay for younger players \u2014 is also not a major concern for Oilers fans so long as the team is realistically competing annually for the Stanley Cup. Edmonton does not and will not have a lot of highly talented players in their restricted free agency years for the foreseeable future. Those young players most often go to failing, tanking and rebuilding teams at the bottom of the standings, teams like Vancouver and Calgary just now.<\/p>\n This trend will make it more difficult for those teams to rebuild. Pre-Carlsson, such teams might well have expected to pay 6-to-10 per cent of their cap to a star Restricted Free Agent. Now that rate has shot up.<\/p>\n NHL deals<\/p>\n For example, Buium is projected to be a star d-man, but he’s not in the superstar category like a Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes. Yet on Buium’s new deal he’ll be taking in 8.2 per cent of the cap. That’s almost the same percentage as the 8.5 per cent of the cap Lane Hutson will get on his second deal. But Hutson is a much more advanced player and better risk than Buium. He scored 66 points in the year leading up to his new contract (which was signed last October, before the Carlsson deal). Buium scored just 26 points last season.<\/p>\n If we go back a bit, we see that when Leafs d-man Morgan Rielly signed his second deal, he was coming off a season with 36 points, again significantly more than Buium scored last year. But Rielly got just 6.85 per cent of the cap. Oscar Klefbom of the Oilers got just 5.71 per cent of the cap on his second deal.<\/p>\n Klefbom wasn’t the attacker that Buium could become, but Klefbom did develop into a solid top-pairing d-man before injury ended his career.<\/p>\n Before the Leo Carlsson deal, Buium might have been expected to take around 6-to-7 per cent of the cap on his second deal, which would have left more money each season for the Canucks to pursue or sign other strong players.<\/p>\n Any team with a lot of star RFA players \u2014 as rebuilding teams often have \u2014 can no longer expect to pay them a discounted rate, but will have to pay full value.<\/p>\n Will this trend last? Will it still be the case years from now when the Oilers are likely to be rebuilding?<\/p>\n That’s hard to know, but I can see the bloom coming off of this particular rose.<\/p>\n If a few teams pluck away a RFA stars and have to give up multiple first round draft picks, then those RFA fail to produce, that will be extremely damaging and deflating to the market. Not only will these teams have an RFA who is grossly overpaid, they’ll likely be weak teams that have to give up their high draft picks. That kind of double whammy will sour the market for RFAs.<\/p>\n We will see a few such ugly scenarios play out in the next five years. Book it.<\/p>\n The Cult of Hockey. By the Faithful and for the Faithful. Please support our work and the Edmonton Journal. $1 for six months, $20 for one year. Let’s do this!<\/a>At the Cult of Hockey<\/p>\n Beware the celebrations of summer when it comes to the Edmonton Oilers<\/a><\/p>\n Kurt Leavins with 9 Things: Well rounded is great but when you are an NHL shooter, it’s all about the goals<\/a><\/p>\n Stan Bowman first shafts Edmonton Oilers, then saves them, making history repeat with critical trades<\/a><\/p>\n Cult of Hockey prospect series 2026<\/p>\n #1 Isaac Howard: What we don’t know about the Edmonton Oilers #1 prospect is the ace up his sleeve<\/a><\/p>\n #2 Devon Levi: Can this highly rated goaltender go from tantalizing prospect to NHL starter for the Edmonton Oilers<\/a><\/p>\n #3 Josh Samanski: Big centre jumps up from junior hockey flop to rarefied air as Oilers hopeful<\/a><\/p>\n![\"NHL](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/edmonton_journal_articles_165\/8dd942f83a96d0c63f0264b8bd61058a.jpg\"\/)
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