{"id":897397,"date":"2026-09-16T03:14:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T03:14:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/897397\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T03:14:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T03:14:10","slug":"alberta-ndp-wins-reliable-ucp-riding-amid-backlash-to-separation-referendum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/897397\/","title":{"rendered":"Alberta NDP wins reliable UCP riding amid backlash to separation referendum"},"content":{"rendered":"

Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, right, and Kyle Campbell, MLA-elect for Calgary-Shaw, speak to the media in Calgary, Tuesday.Jeff McIntosh\/The Canadian Press<\/p>\n

Alberta\u2019s ruling United Conservative Party was hit with a stunning by-election upset on Monday in Calgary, in one of the country\u2019s most reliably conservative urban ridings, one month ahead of the province\u2019s vote on independence. <\/p>\n

While Premier Danielle Smith\u2019s<\/a> office blamed the loss on a split conservative vote and low turnout, political experts described the looming provincial referendum on independence as an albatross around the government\u2019s neck that turned the by-election into a protest vote. <\/p>\n

Alberta NDP candidate Kyle Campbell won the riding of Calgary-Shaw in the city\u2019s south late Monday night, with roughly 47 per cent of the vote. He defeated UCP candidate Mike Derry by just 582 votes, according to preliminary results from Elections Alberta. <\/p>\n

The NDP won the seat in Calgary-Shaw once, in the 2015 election. But the UCP, formed in 2017 as a merger between the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Party, won the riding in the following two provincial elections without breaking a sweat. <\/p>\n

It won the riding in the 2023 provincial election with 56 per cent of the vote, by a margin of 14 percentage points. In 2019, it defeated the NDP by a 40-percentage-point margin.<\/p>\n

The new legislature member for Calgary-Shaw and Alberta’s NDP leader Naheed Nenshi say concerns about a referendum on separation next month helped their cause in Monday’s by-election in Calgary Shaw. Unofficial results show NDP candidate Kyle Campbell defeated the United Conservative Party candidate by nearly 600 votes.<\/p>\n

The Canadian Press<\/p>\n

The New Democrats\u2019 win in the staunch conservative riding is being widely viewed as a rebuke of how Ms. Smith has handled the question of Alberta separatism. In less than five weeks, on Oct. 19, Albertans will vote on whether to remain in Canada or lay the legal groundwork for a second, binding secession vote. <\/p>\n

Even so, it remains an open question whether the by-election result is a short-term punishment for Ms. Smith\u2019s government or a signal of changing political winds in Alberta.<\/p>\n

Sam Blackett, spokesperson for Ms. Smith, pinned the result on a fragmented conservative vote and fewer voters showing up to the polls. He also stressed the importance of unity among the Alberta right. <\/p>\n

While the newly formed Progressive Tory Party of Alberta put 978 votes on the board, the Alberta Liberal Party \u2013 which has been in the political wilderness for years \u2013 raked in 602 votes, according to unofficial results.<\/p>\n

Turnout, meanwhile, was roughly 38 per cent \u2013 well below the 63 per cent turnout in the last provincial election in 2023, but several percentage points higher than recent by-elections in Alberta. UCP voters turned out in significantly lower numbers than NDP supporters compared to the last general election. <\/p>\n

\u201cIn 5 weeks, the referendum vote will be over, and we\u2019re confident Albertans will be ready to move forward and fight for a stronger Alberta within a united Canada,\u201d Mr. Blackett wrote in an e-mailed statement.<\/p>\n

Opinion: With five weeks to go before Alberta\u2019s referendum vote, where is the pro-Canada campaign?<\/a><\/p>\n

Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, meanwhile, called his party\u2019s win a \u201cshockwave that ran through Alberta politics.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThis was a vote against Danielle Smith, but we wouldn\u2019t have won if it was a vote against Danielle Smith alone. This was a vote for the Alberta NDP,\u201d Mr. Nenshi said at a Tuesday morning news conference with Mr. Campbell.<\/p>\n

Monday\u2019s result in Calgary-Shaw surprised observers across the political spectrum. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s an astonishing result,\u201d Michael Solberg, a former staffer to prime minister Stephen Harper and partner at New West Public Affairs, said in an interview.<\/p>\n

Mr. Solberg said there were several factors at play in the UCP\u2019s defeat, but there seems to be a link to voters\u2019 feelings about the Oct. 19 referendum. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think it is an albatross around her neck right now,\u201d Mr. Solberg said of Ms. Smith.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe party is lucky there\u2019s not a general election in the next five weeks. But there is a huge opportunity for the Premier to turn the page in five weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n

Alberta independence ballot count expected to run deep into morning after vote<\/a><\/p>\n

The upcoming referendum question on separation has put Ms. Smith\u2019s United Conservatives in a bind. Ms. Smith has declared herself a federalist in favour of a \u201csovereign Alberta within a united Canada,\u201d and says she will vote to remain in Canada. <\/p>\n

But she is also leading a party that is increasingly influenced by vocal separatists, putting her at odds with a large segment of the UCP membership. Critics have argued that segment of the party holds disproportionate sway over the Premier.<\/p>\n

Former premier Jason Kenney, one of the loudest voices in the pro-Canada movement and the UCP\u2019s first leader, warned in a Tuesday social-media post that separatism is toxic for the conservative movement: \u201cA vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election, and for the Liberal Party of Canada to win far more Alberta seats.\u201d<\/p>\n

Evan Menzies, vice-president at Crestview Strategy and former director of communications for the UCP, described the referendum as a \u201clead balloon for a large segment of the Alberta population.\u201d <\/p>\n

But Mr. Menzies, also the former communications director for the Wildrose Party led by Ms. Smith in the early 2010s, said he believes the damage will be temporary. <\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t see it as I\u2019ve seen others lay it out, as a permanent shift in Alberta politics.\u201d<\/p>\n

Polling has consistently shown a vast majority of Albertans reject separatism. Mr. Menzies said that should the pro-Canada side secure a resounding victory in October, Ms. Smith\u2019s government should look to put the issue in the rear-view mirror.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think it will be dominating the election landscape in October, 2027.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shannon Phillips, a former Alberta NDP MLA and ex-provincial environment minister, said the New Democrats\u2019 victory surprised her because of the area\u2019s history of electing conservatives. But she believes the referendum, nearly a month out, has frustrated large segments of the province.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis was a protest vote against the very existence of the referendum,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Ms. Phillips said the victory will throw wind in the NDP\u2019s sails, but it\u2019s uncertain whether that momentum will continue.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo event is ever fixed in time, and it depends on who\u2019s going to do politics.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Open this photo in gallery: Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, right, and Kyle Campbell, MLA-elect for Calgary-Shaw, speak…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":897398,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[901,888,902,879,877,903,49,48,876,895,896,891,878,875,46,549,295,894,887,914,880,881,893,889,890,884,904,885,909,910,44,912,907,911,905,908,882,898,899,714,897,906,865,61,900,892,886,883,913],"class_list":["post-897397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-alberta","tag-arts-news","tag-bc","tag-breaking-news","tag-breaking-news-video","tag-british-columbia","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-news","tag-canada-sports","tag-canada-sports-news","tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","tag-canadian-breaking-news","tag-canadian-news","tag-economy","tag-education","tag-environment","tag-federal-government","tag-foreign-news","tag-globe-and-mail","tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","tag-government","tag-life-news","tag-lifestyle","tag-local-news","tag-manitoba","tag-national-news","tag-new-brunswick","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","tag-news","tag-northwest-territories","tag-nova-scotia","tag-nunavut","tag-ontario","tag-pei","tag-photos","tag-political-news","tag-political-opinion","tag-politics","tag-politics-news","tag-quebec","tag-sports-news","tag-technology","tag-travel","tag-trudeau","tag-us-news","tag-world-news","tag-yukon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/897397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=897397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/897397\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/897398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=897397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=897397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=897397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}