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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team<\/a> and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.<\/p>\n \n Moody\u2019s, one of the big three global credit rating agencies, has lowered Poland\u2019s rating from A2 to A3, pointing to a \u201cdeteriorating\u201d fiscal situation and the \u201climited willingness or ability\u201d of the authorities to take necessary action. The decision is likely to push up borrowing costs for Poland and reduce investor confidence.<\/p>\n The last time the agency had Poland at such a low level of creditworthiness was in 2002.\u00a0 It is also the first time any of the big three agencies has downgraded Poland\u2019s rating since 2016, when Standard & Poor\u2019s shifted it from A- to BBB+ on its scale. However, it restored Poland to A- two years later.<\/p>\n Moody\u2019s obni\u017cy\u0142 dzi\u015b rating Polski z A2 do A3. To pierwsza obni\u017cka ratingu Polski przez Moody\u2019s od 2002 r. Przez lata agencja utrzymywa\u0142a A2, nawet gdy zmienia\u0142a perspektyw\u0119 na negatywn\u0105. Trwa\u0142e wysokie deficyty i rosn\u0105ce koszty obs\u0142ugi oznaczaj\u0105 pogorszenie perspektyw dla Polski pic.twitter.com\/iGeuBb5hih<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Piotr Arak (@piotrarak) September 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThe downgrade of Poland\u2019s ratings to A3 reflects our expectations of a sustained deterioration in Poland\u2019s fiscal strength,\u201d said Moody\u2019s in an announcement late on Friday.<\/p>\n \u201cLarge fiscal deficits persist, leading to a material increase in public debt and, together with rising interest costs, weaken debt affordability metrics,\u201d added the agency.<\/p>\n It also warned that \u201cfiscal policy effectiveness has weakened\u201d, including a \u201climited willingness or ability on the part of the Polish authorities to rebuild fiscal buffers during favourable economic conditions\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cPolitical constraints, including the continued standoff between the government and the president and the proximity of the November 2027 parliamentary elections, also limit the scope for meaningful fiscal consolidation,\u201d concluded Moody\u2019s, pointing to Poland\u2019s high social and defence spending<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n In response to the announcement, Poland\u2019s finance minister, Andrzej Doma\u0144ski, noted that Moody\u2019s had previously \u201chad the highest rating for Poland among the three major agencies\u201d. After the downgrade, it is now aligned with Standard & Poor\u2019s and Fitch, the other two agencies, he added.<\/p>\n \u201cWe take this decision seriously, but calmly,\u201d continued Doma\u0144ski. \u201cThe Polish economy is growing rapidly, and its fundamentals remain strong. We will consistently strengthen public finances, but this requires cooperation from all state institutions, including the president.\u201d<\/p>\n The latter comment was directed at President Karol Nawrocki, who is aligned with the right-wing opposition and has blocked many of the government\u2019s initiatives, including some of its fiscal policies<\/a>.<\/p>\n However, the head of Nawrocki\u2019s cabinet, Pawe\u0142 Szefernaker, blamed the situation on the government. \u201cThey steal, they lie and they burden our homeland with debt,\u201d he wrote on social media. \u201cUnfortunately, we Poles will have to pay for it all.\u201d<\/p>\n Dzi\u015b agencja ratingowa Moody\u2019s obni\u017cy\u0142a rating Polski do poziomu A3, jednocze\u015bnie podnosz\u0105c perspektyw\u0119 ratingu z negatywnej do stabilnej. Dot\u0105d Moody\u2019s mia\u0142a najwy\u017csz\u0105 ocen\u0119 Polski spo\u015br\u00f3d trzech g\u0142\u00f3wnych agencji \u2013 po obni\u017cce dostosowa\u0142a j\u0105 do poziomu agencji Fitch i S&P.\u2026<\/p>\n \u2014 Andrzej Doma\u0144ski (@Domanski_Andrz) September 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Poland\u2019s worsening fiscal situation has been drawing the attention of the rating agencies for some time. The government\u2019s budget deficit has ballooned, reaching 7.3% of GDP in 2025, the second-highest figure in the European Union<\/a>.<\/p>\n That was despite Poland being placed under the EU\u2019s excessive deficit procedure<\/a> in 2024, at which time it set out a plan to reduce the deficit. Instead, the deficit has risen. The draft budget for 2027<\/a> puts the deficit at 7.1%, almost double the 3.7% the government had previously committed to reach by that year.<\/p>\n As a result, Poland\u2019s level of debt has risen rapidly. In the first quarter of this year, it went above 60% of GDP for the first time<\/a> on record, thereby exceeding the limit enshrined in EU law.<\/p>\n Poland’s government has approved a draft budget for 2027 that keeps defence and healthcare as spending priorities, while continuing heavy borrowing<\/p>\n The deficit, at 7.1% of GDP, remains well above the EU limit of 3% that the government has pledged to reach https:\/\/t.co\/gxLdsHjYPz<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) August 28, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Meanwhile, the ability to introduce measures to better balance the budget has been hindered by hostility between the government \u2013 a coalition ranging from left to centre right \u2013 and Nawrocki.<\/p>\n Since coming to power just over a year ago, Nawrocki has vetoed a record number of bills<\/a>, including a proposed tax increase on alcoholic and sweet drinks<\/a>. He also recently blocked a windfall tax<\/a> on fuel companies.<\/p>\n The situation led both Fitch and Moody\u2019s to shift their outlook for Poland from stable to negative<\/a> last year, indicating that they may lower the country\u2019s score.<\/p>\n Moody\u2019s has now done so, although in Friday\u2019s downgrade announcement it also shifted Poland\u2019s outlook back to stable, saying that it forecasts strong economic growth in the coming years and government debt stabilising around 70-75% of GDP by the late 2020s.<\/p>\n Ratings agency Fitch has again warned that the “political gridlock” between Poland’s government president \u2013 such as the current clash over EU defence loans \u2013 is hindering efforts to tackle “large fiscal deficits and rapidly rising debt” https:\/\/t.co\/JSqwwayTdm<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) March 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Fitch has so far maintained its credit rating for Poland at A-, where it has been since 2007. However, in March this year, the agency warned<\/a> that the \u201cpolitical gridlock\u201d between the government and president is hindering efforts to tackle Poland\u2019s \u201clarge fiscal deficits and rapidly rising debt\u201d.<\/p>\n Standard & Poor\u2019s, meanwhile, has so far maintained both Poland\u2019s credit rating at A-, where it has been since 2018, and its outlook at neutral.<\/p>\n In a comment on the Moody\u2019s decision on Friday, Ignacy Morawski, editor-in-chief of Polish business daily Puls Biznesu, wrote that the downgrade had \u201chappened faster than most market participants had predicted\u201d.<\/p>\n He cited \u201cuncontrolled political inertia\u201d in tackling public finances as the primary reason behind the downgrade, which he said should provide \u201ceven more reason for the government and president to start seeking agreement\u201d.<\/p>\n Agencja Moody’s \u015bci\u0119\u0142a Polsce rating. To by\u0142o oczekiwane co do kierunku, cho\u0107 nast\u0105pi\u0142o szybciej ni\u017c przewidywa\u0142a wi\u0119kszo\u015b\u0107 uczestnik\u00f3w rynku. Powodem jest plan bud\u017cetu bez \u017cadnej przewidywanej redukcji deficytu fiskalnego pa\u0144stwa w relacji do PKB. I totalna blokada decyzji przez\u2026<\/p>\n \u2014 Ignacy Morawski (@iggnacy) September 18, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n
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