This raises the question: What must Wagner do to be a top-five small forward in the NBA?<\/p>\n
Wagner must have higher accuracy from deep in 2026-27<\/p>\n
The biggest way Wagner can grow his offensive game is through a higher 3-point field goal percentage. <\/p>\n
While his career regular-season 3-point field goal percentage is 32.4%, he had two straight regular seasons (2023-24 and 2024-25) in which he did not shoot above 30% from deep. <\/p>\n
In the 2025-26 regular season, Wagner shot 34.5% from beyond the arc, but he only played in 34 games. <\/p>\n
If Wagner is available for the majority of the regular season and shoots 35% or higher from deep, it will significantly help his offense. <\/p>\n
Being a reliable 3-point shooter will make him a bigger threat from behind the arc, opening up more looks for him inside. This should reflect positively on his scoring average.<\/p>\n
Wagner averaged his most points in the regular season (24.2 in 2024-25) on just 29.5% shooting from deep. Had he been more accurate from deep, that number would have been higher. <\/p>\n
A higher scoring average will help Wagner enter the top five<\/p>\n
In his five regular seasons, Wagner has only averaged above 20 points per game twice: 24.2 in 2024-25 and 20.6 in 2025-26. <\/p>\n
His scoring average increased each season before dropping in 2025-26, although he only played in the 34 aforementioned games. <\/p>\n
Wagner getting his offense back to that 24 points per game mark would help make his case to be a top-five small forward. It would make him a more dominant offensive presence on the court. After all, elite scorers get lots of attention. However, that alone won’t help him. <\/p>\n
Wagner must be available in the 2026-27 season as well<\/p>\n
If Wagner has great stats in the 2026-27 season in a limited number of games, it won’t drastically change the perception of him. This is especially true given his limited number of games in 2025-26. Those 34 games played were the lowest in his career. <\/p>\n
However, if he increases his accuracy from deep and his scoring average while playing in most of the games, fans will have a large enough sample size to be confident in his production. The perception of him would likely improve. <\/p>\n
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