Legendary Radio-Canada news anchor Bernard Derome is synonymous with the iconic phrase \u201cSi la tendance se maintient \u2026\u201d (\u201cIf the trend continues\u201d), which he would use in prefacing who appeared headed toward election victory.<\/p>\n
With just over a week to go, it looks like the polling trend of the past three years is maintaining, with the separatist Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon headed toward victory on Oct. 5.<\/p>\n
PQ support sits at only 29 per cent overall but 36 per cent among francophone voters \u2014 crucially, 13 points ahead of the closest rival \u2014 in a province where 90 of 127 ridings are more than 80 per cent francophone. <\/p>\n
With four main parties dividing the rest of the vote, the p\u00e9quistes \u2014 like the Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec before them \u2014 could win a majority despite a very low popular vote total.<\/p>\n
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The five main party leaders pose before their third and final debate at Radio-Canada this week. From left: Ruba Ghazal (Quebec solidaire), Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois, Christine Fr\u00e9chette (Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec), \u00c9ric Duhaime (Conservative Party of Quebec), and Charles Milliard (Quebec Liberal Party). GRAHAM HUGHES \/ POOL\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n
Many potential PQ voters don\u2019t necessarily want the party\u2019s promised sovereignty referendum, and may have figured they could vote it down later \u2014 or presumed a PQ win would fall short of a majority, making a referendum unlikely. Now that polls show the party is flirting with a possible majority, will the sobering experience of the voter booth cause many to back off?<\/p>\n
And what about the 40 per cent of still undecided voters?<\/p>\n
There is still time for some movement in the final week, with so many variables, parties and vote-split scenarios at play. If so, is it enough to change la tendance? And who would benefit?<\/p>\n
An overwhelming majority of the electorate want a change of government and seemingly can\u2019t bring themselves to vote again for the CAQ. New leader Christine Fr\u00e9chette doesn\u2019t have one of those \u201cneuralyzer\u201d devices from the Men in Black movies to zap Quebecers\u2019 memories of the past eight years.<\/p>\n
Conservative Leader \u00c9ric Duhaime has benefited from this existential dilemma for francophones, solidifying his standing considerably and seemingly poised to win seats around Quebec City. Can he make gains elsewhere?<\/p>\n
According to polls, Liberal Leader Charles Milliard hasn\u2019t yet been able to break through. Despite his personal attributes and experience in health care and the economic sector, as well as the strength of his team, it seems much of the francophone electorate still associates the Liberals as le parti du West Island.<\/p>\n
Although affordability, health care and the economy are top of mind, perceptions about who is best placed to protect Quebec\u2019s identity seemingly remains an Achilles heel for the Liberals and a factor for many francophone voters.<\/p>\n
But the polls could be underestimating Milliard\u2019s numbers. Some francophones are shy to tell pollsters they support the Liberals, who often get a bounce at the ballot box. His name recognition is ascending, and one must also consider the ground games of the parties, which can count for a few points.<\/p>\n
In any case, the Liberals are pretty much guaranteed at least 20-25 seats, enough for official opposition status. Maybe the best scenario for Milliard would in fact be a second-place finish. Fiscal and economic difficulties in governing, for any party today, are almost insurmountable.<\/p>\n
A PQ government would face significant challenges in delivering positive change, and over the next few years PSPP\u2019s brand would undoubtedly get dented. He would be hard pressed to convince electors that independence would be the solution at that point. In the meantime, it would give Milliard time to further establish his name, put his stamp on the party and hone political skills as opposition leader in the legislature.<\/p>\n
\t\tEditor\u2019s Picks\t<\/p>\n
The last PQ election win was 2012. Pauline Marois formed a minority government with the Liberals as official opposition, and the CAQ and Qu\u00e9bec solidaire also winning seats. Marois called an election two years later and was soundly defeated by Phillippe Couillard, who had become Liberal leader a year earlier. <\/p>\n
Couillard initially trailed badly among francophone voters, but he hammered away at the government and its raison d\u2019\u00eatre of separation, which eventually took centre stage in the campaign. Polls ultimately swung dramatically toward Couillard \u2014 helped along by Pierre Karl P\u00e9ladeau\u2019s infamous fist-pump \u2014 and started a PQ downturn.<\/p>\n
A PQ win may be disconcerting and breed uncertainty for a few years. But it would also severely test the party\u2019s ability to make good on its promises to improve the lives of Quebecers and likely expose the vulnerabilities of its overall vision.<\/p>\n
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