Which playoff team most needs to win the World Series?<\/p>\n
Repeating an exercise we do every fall when the MLB postseason is about to commence, we will try to determine how much immediate pressure each championship hopeful is facing.<\/p>\n
What builds the pressure to win now? The answer is a little different for every team, and the weight of that pressure changes each passing season. Players age. Free agents leave and arrive. Playoff disappointments pile up. Playoff absences chafe.<\/p>\n
Our Pressure Index formula considers the droughts, recent history and star pressure, along with age and pending free agents on the current roster. The original incarnation of the system was based on an old Bill James method for calculating \u201cpressure points.\u201d The basic version assumes that the more success a team has without winning it all, the more that team\u2019s pressure builds up. That pressure doesn\u2019t finally release until that team wins it all, resetting the valve, and everyone who follows that team can relax.<\/p>\n
Only Dodgers fans currently know what that feels like.<\/p>\n
On to the rankings!<\/p>\n
Note: This includes every team with a nonzero chance at making the postseason, per our daily simulations.<\/p>\n
1. Milwaukee Brewers<\/p>\n
Pressure Index: 109.7<\/p>\n
Last title: Never<\/p>\n
Last pennant: 1982<\/p>\n
This is the Brewers\u2019 third straight year on top of these rankings, which makes sense. The Brewers have been perpetually successful over the past decade, but that first World Series title parade has still been elusive.<\/p>\n
The pressure has only ratcheted up over the past year. After losing to the Dodgers in the NLCS in 2025, the Brewers have had the best regular season in franchise history.<\/p>\n
The Brewers can finally release this pressure by finally, at last, overcoming the Dodgers.<\/p>\n
2. San Diego Padres<\/p>\n
Pressure Index: 108.3<\/p>\n
Last title: Never<\/p>\n
Last pennant: 1998<\/p>\n
The Padres face many of the same historical pressures as the Brewers, as well as the same immediate obstacle — the Dodgers.<\/p>\n
The Padres have a more recent pennant than Milwaukee, though you have to be an adult to remember a World Series appearance for either team. Milwaukee has more of a knock-knock factor because of a longer string of good seasons.<\/p>\n
Still, San Diego is in the same proverbial boat as Milwaukee, still aching for that first victory parade.<\/p>\n
3. Cleveland Guardians<\/p>\n
Pressure Index: 107.0<\/p>\n
Last title: 1948<\/p>\n
Last pennant: 2016<\/p>\n
The Guardians move up a spot from last year, though it\u2019s only because last year\u2019s No. 3, Seattle, didn\u2019t make the playoffs.<\/p>\n
Cleveland, the reluctant owner of baseball\u2019s longest active title drought, has a more recent pennant than Milwaukee and San Diego, though that 2016 flag is amazingly now a decade old.<\/p>\n
And because we\u2019re talking about World Series parades, if you remember the last time Cleveland had one — in 1948 — you\u2019ve been around a while. Well done.<\/p>\n
4. New York Yankees<\/p>\n
Pressure Index: 104.8<\/p>\n
Last title: 2009<\/p>\n
Last pennant: 2024<\/p>\n
Three teams ahead of the Yankees dropped out of this year\u2019s rankings after missing the playoffs — Seattle, Toronto and the Mets.<\/p>\n
Thus, two seasons after winning an American League pennant, the Yankees are already back into the fourth position in the pressure rankings. If we folded in more intangible elements — such as media scrutiny and fan expectation — the Yankees would almost certainly occupy the top spot.<\/p>\n
If you are on a franchise for which a 34-year streak of winning seasons and a two-year-old pennant are not nearly good enough, pressure is something you have to live with.<\/p>\n
5. Chicago Cubs<\/p>\n
Pressure Index: 101.8<\/p>\n
Last title: 2016<\/p>\n
Last pennant: 2016<\/p>\n
It has been 10 years since the Cubs ended their historic title drought. You might think it doesn\u2019t feel that long ago, and you\u2019d be right. But ironically, the Cubs commemorating that championship this season makes it feel even more like just another page from the history books.<\/p>\n
We can\u2019t yet consign the Bryzzo-era Cubs to the same chapter as Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance, especially as some members of that curse-breaking Cubs team, such as Kyle Schwarber<\/a> and Aroldis Chapman<\/a>, are still playing, still doing great and chasing flags for other teams.<\/p>\n Nevertheless, it has been a minute, and this year\u2019s Cubs team is good enough to make a run.<\/p>\n 6. Tampa Bay Rays<\/p>\n Pressure Index: 101.6<\/p>\n Last title: Never<\/p>\n Last pennant: 2020<\/p>\n The Rays missed the playoffs last year, but would have ranked 14th among the teams we ranked for postseason pressure.<\/p>\n The 2020 pennant still carries some pressure-relieving weight. But the Rays remain one of the five teams without a World Series crown. The Rays are the lone AL playoff entrant in that category, joining the Brewers and Padres from the NL. The Mariners and Rockies, meanwhile, already are in wait-til-next-year mode.<\/p>\n The Rays seemed to have a built-in pressure-relieving dynamic in place because their low payrolls keep a cap on expectations. That\u2019s not baked into the formula here and shouldn\u2019t be. Spend or don\u2019t spend, the job is still to win a title.<\/p>\n 7. Philadelphia Phillies<\/p>\n Pressure Index: 100.9<\/p>\n Last title: 2008<\/p>\n Last pennant: 2022<\/p>\n The Phillies\u2019 pressure index is similar to a year ago, but the dynamics within it have evolved.<\/p>\n Last year, the Phillies\u2019 pending free agent class ratcheted up the tension. At the time, we couldn\u2019t know that Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto<\/a> would stick around, or that Ranger Suarez<\/a> would not.<\/p>\n This season, the Phillies\u2019 MLB-high team age is an even bigger factor than it was last year. That\u2019s how time works. The Phillies have been knocking on the door for a few years and perhaps more than any other 2026 playoff team, it feels as if their sand is running low.<\/p>\n 8. Atlanta Braves<\/p>\n Pressure Index: 100.2<\/p>\n Last title: 2021<\/p>\n Last pennant: 2021<\/p>\n Atlanta has a recent title, so the history part of the index has the Braves 27th. But there are some pressure points.<\/p>\n Only three other playoff clubs have an older team age. There\u2019s a little free agent drama coming with Raisel Iglesias<\/a> and Mauricio Dubon<\/a> on expiring deals, and Ozzie Albies<\/a> subject to a club option.<\/p>\n You wouldn\u2019t call the Braves\u2019 situation a pressure cooker, but this is a team built to win now.<\/p>\n 9. Boston Red Sox<\/p>\n Pressure Index: 99.2<\/p>\n Last title: 2018<\/p>\n Last pennant: 2018<\/p>\n You could argue that manager Chad Tracy was facing more than a little pressure to keep his job, but Boston\u2019s decision to remove his interim tag marks this playoff run as more a celebration than a slog of anxiety.<\/p>\n Red Sox fans might nitpick this observation, but the BoSox aren\u2019t that far removed from their last title. The roster is fairly young and should remain stable going into next season.<\/p>\n There is always pressure to win in Boston, but for this team, which climbed out of a very deep midseason hole, this year might be close to an exception.<\/p>\n 10. Chicago White Sox<\/p>\n Pressure Index: 97.3<\/p>\n Last title: 2005<\/p>\n Last pennant: 2005<\/p>\n The White Sox have a higher pressure rating than the three teams behind them — all recent title winners — because Chicago\u2019s last title was 21 years ago.<\/p>\n But no one expected the White Sox to be anywhere near this postseason bracket, and now that they\u2019ve made it, few expect them to advance far. This lack of external pressure might prove to be the White Sox\u2019s superpower.<\/p>\n 11. Houston Astros<\/p>\n Pressure Index: 97.1<\/p>\n Last title: 2022<\/p>\n Last pennant: 2022<\/p>\n The Astros are about as lackluster a postseason entrant as we\u2019ve seen over the past decade. The 2022 title is a recent memory, and everyone can see this organization moving into a page-turning phase on what was a sustained, robust era of winning.<\/p>\n All of this keeps the tension low. As with the White Sox, these expectation-dampening effects could be a boon. And unlike the White Sox, the Astros have Yordan Alvarez<\/a>, Hunter Brown<\/a> and Josh Hader<\/a>.<\/p>\n 12. Los Angeles Dodgers<\/p>\n Pressure Index: 89.9<\/p>\n Last title: 2025<\/p>\n Last pennant: 2025<\/p>\n Two straight titles equal zero historical pressure. But is that real?<\/p>\n The Dodgers, as with the past few years, have an omnipresent built-in pressure because the expectation, and the investment in payroll, means anything less than a World Series parade is a failure.<\/p>\n This year, they have the added pressure of trying to become the first National League team to win three straight World Series. None of that is baked into the pressure point system, but they are real factors.<\/p>\n Pressure Index for non-playoff teams<\/p>\n 13. Seattle Mariners<\/a> (107.7)<\/p>\n 14. Baltimore Orioles<\/a> (103.9)<\/p>\n 15. Minnesota Twins<\/a> (102.9)<\/p>\n 16. Athletics<\/a> (102.6)<\/p>\n 17. Toronto Blue Jays<\/a> (102.5)<\/p>\n 18. Pittsburgh Pirates<\/a> (102.2)<\/p>\n 19. Detroit Tigers<\/a> (101.6)<\/p>\n 20. Cincinnati Reds<\/a> (101.3)<\/p>\n 21. St. Louis Cardinals<\/a> (100.1)<\/p>\n 22. Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a> (99.6)<\/p>\n 23. Los Angeles Angels<\/a> (97.5)<\/p>\n 24. Colorado Rockies<\/a> (97.5)<\/p>\n 25. Kansas City Royals<\/a> (95.7)<\/p>\n 26. Texas Rangers<\/a> (95.0)<\/p>\n 27. New York Mets<\/a> (94.7)<\/p>\n 28. Miami Marlins<\/a> (94.5)<\/p>\n