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Quinn Allen<\/a> 7+ years betting experience<\/p>\n \n Updated: \u2022 4 min read<\/p>\n Expect the Astros and Cubs to respond and force Game 3s. <\/p>\n Photo By – Reuters Connect. Chicago Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman (3) celebrates a home run<\/p>\n Four Wild Card games are on the postseason schedule today, and I’m diving into my top\u00a0MLB moneyline picks for each contest.\u00a0<\/p>\n Read it all in my MLB picks<\/a> for Wednesday, Sept. 30.\u00a0<\/p>\n MLB moneyline picks for September 30<\/p>\n For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator<\/a>.<\/p>\n Prices courtesy of Polymarket<\/a> as of Sept. 30.<\/p>\n Trade on the MLB at Polymarket!<\/p>\n Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code<\/a> ‘COVERS’ (on your mobile app only) and get a $20 trading bonus after you deposit $10 to trade on any other event contracts \u2014 including MLB moneylines!<\/p>\n *Eligible locations only<\/p>\n Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account Phillies win probability: 45%<\/a><\/p>\n Play up to 50%.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Phillies are looking to avoid elimination, and Cristopher Sanchez<\/a> is the perfect man to be on the mound. The left-hander finished the regular season with a respectable 3.49 FIP over his final six outings, and he posted a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Braves in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n Tyler Mahle<\/a> counters for the hosts, and he’s been shaky at times, compiling a 4.46 FIP in his previous two appearances while allowing 1.64 HR\/9.\u00a0<\/p>\n I expect both starters to hold their own, but Sanchez gives Philly a slight edge.\u00a0<\/p>\n For more, check out Chris Hatfield’s complete Phillies vs. Braves predictions<\/a> and Dustin Saracini’s Phillies vs. Braves prop picks<\/a>.<\/p>\n White Sox vs Astros: Astros<\/p>\n Astros win probability: 53%<\/a><\/p>\n Play up to 58%.<\/p>\n This could be a pitcher’s duel in Houston, but I like the Astros to respond. Hunter Brown<\/a> has been unhittable, registering a 1.73 FIP over his last three starts with no homers allowed and an impressive 64.5% ground-ball rate. He also surrendered just two earned runs across 13 innings vs. Chicago this season.\u00a0<\/p>\n Sean Burke<\/a> is in decent form as well, but he has been more vulnerable recently. While the 3.33 xERA recently looks solid, Burke has allowed a 40.9% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate in the last two weeks.\u00a0<\/p>\n Houston will even up this series and force Game 3.<\/p>\n Todd Cordell has more thoughts on this matchup in the full White Sox vs Astros predictions<\/a> and Neil Parker’s White Sox vs. Astros props<\/a>.<\/p>\n Red Sox vs Yankees: Yankees<\/p>\n Yankees win probability: 57%<\/a><\/p>\n Play up to 60%.\u00a0<\/p>\n It’s hard for me to ignore Max Fried<\/a>‘s recent form and his dominance against the Red Sox. The left-hander owns a 2.13 xERA over his last two starts\u00a0and has surrendered just one earned run in 11 2\/3 innings vs. Boston in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n Sonny Gray<\/a> counters for the Red Sox, and he hasn’t been at his best lately. The veteran has a 4.67 xERA in his last four outings\u00a0and is coming up against a Yankees offense that just exploded for nine runs.\u00a0<\/p>\n Fried will silence Boston, and New York will give its starter some run support.<\/p>\n Go deeper with Chris Hatfield’s Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions<\/a> and Dustin Saracini’s Red Sox vs. Yankees props<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Cubs vs Padres: Cubs<\/p>\n Cubs win probability: 51%<\/a><\/p>\n Play up to 55%.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Padres go with Nick Pivetta<\/a> tonight as they look to advance, but his underlying numbers are concerning. Although the right-hander has limited runs lately, he’s posted a 43.4% hard-hit rate and 15.1% barrel rate in his last 18 2\/3 innings.\u00a0<\/p>\n That’s concerning against a Cubs offense poised to respond on the road, where they collected a 107 wRC+ this season. Kevin Gausman<\/a> should also provide stability. He sports a 3.37 FIP in his previous two outings with solid command and a 66.7% ground-ball rate.\u00a0<\/p>\n Take Chicago.<\/p>\n
\n \u2022 Betting Analyst<\/p>\n
\nSep 30, 2026 , 02:57 PM ET<\/p>\n![\"Add](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1790796011_122_google-preferred-source-badge.png\"){kind=icon}
<\/a>Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 30
\nPhillies vs Braves: Phillies<\/p>\n