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<\/p>\nThe federal budget watchdog is warning construction of a high-speed rail line between Toronto and Qu\u00e9bec City could cost more than Ottawa\u2019s initial estimate.<\/p>\n
The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer released a report Thursday that attempts to put a dollar figure on the federal government\u2019s proposed Alto high-speed rail corridor.<\/p>\n
Ottawa has released project cost estimates of between $60 billion and $90 billion. The PBO believes the price tag will range from $75 billion to $113 billion.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis range reflects the considerable uncertainty inherent in large-scale rail infrastructure projects,\u201d the report read.<\/p>\n
The budget watchdog arrived at its estimates mainly by comparing Alto to similar large infrastructure projects in other jurisdictions.<\/p>\n
The main cost drivers for major rail projects tend to be tunnelling and elevation to navigate terrain along the route. The PBO assumes a 15-kilometre tunnel will be needed between Laval and Montreal for the Alto line.<\/p>\n
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The rocky Canadian Shield will also pose engineering challenges for the segment between Ottawa and Peterborough, Ont., the PBO said. The budget office expects costs for cutting, grading and filling through the Shield would be \u201ccomparable to, though lower than\u201d installing elevated structures along the route.<\/p>\n
The PBO\u2019s projections exclude a potential Kingston, Ont., stop along the Ontario-Quebec route, which was pitched as a possible addition back in June.<\/p>\n
Diverting and extending the route to include Kingston could avoid some of the Canadian Shield but likely would run the rail line through areas that are already developed, ecologically vulnerable or require more consultation with Indigenous groups, the report said.<\/p>\n
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Litigation, difficulty getting land approvals, design challenges and weak project management practices are among the factors that drive up costs for major infrastructure projects, the PBO noted.<\/p>\n
The federal Liberals have passed legislation to streamline approvals for major projects like high-speed rail.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe report concludes that these measures may reduce \u2014 but do not eliminate \u2014 legal, permitting and schedule risks,\u201d the PBO said in its analysis.<\/p>\n
Marlee Socket, spokesperson for Alto, said in a media statement that while the Crown corporation has used different costing methodologies, the budget office\u2019s projections are similar and \u201cconsistent with Alto\u2019s working estimate.\u201d<\/p>\n
She said the report also pushed back against \u201cpessimistic scenarios\u201d raised in public debate about the ultimate cost of the project.<\/p>\n
Planning for the rail line will \u201crefine cost estimates and finalize a rigorous business case before any final investment decision is made,\u201d Socket said. An initial business case for Alto is expected in the first half of next year, she added.<\/p>\n
The federal Conservative party has called the Liberal proposal a costly \u201cboondoggle\u201d and members of the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois say they fear the project is being rushed through without proper consideration.<\/p>\n
Alto has also received pushback from residents in Ontario and Quebec who are concerned about the proposed route and possible land expropriations along the corridor.<\/p>\n
The budget office noted the development of the Alto line would create between 4,300 and 9,000 construction jobs and add billions to Canada\u2019s gross domestic product, amounting to \u201cnear-term economic stimulus.\u201d<\/p>\n
The PBO is planning a second report to determine whether projected ridership on the line would be enough to sustain the system\u2019s operations.<\/p>\n
Eleanor Olszewski, the Liberal minister heading up economic development in the Prairies, announced Monday that the federal government is also planning to work with Alberta on a possible high-speed rail project connecting Edmonton and Calgary.<\/p>\n
By Craig Lord<\/p>\n