Pauline Hanson, the populist party\u2019s leader, last month announced a plan<\/a> to cut the number of temporary migrants in Australia by more than 750,000 over three years by targeting international students and family members of skilled migrants.<\/p>\n To achieve that reduction, net overseas migration (Nom) would need to turn negative for three years, the party says, before an ongoing cap of 130,000.<\/p>\n That compares with Labor\u2019s longer-term Nom target of 225,000<\/a>, and to the last official estimate of 292,000 in the year to March.<\/p>\n Tony Burke, the home affairs minister, said One Nation\u2019s plan<\/a>, if enacted, would \u201ctrash Australian services and trash the Australian economy<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n Hanson disagrees, and is quick to blame Australia\u2019s high population growth over the past few years for the economy\u2019s woes.<\/p>\n In a social media post, she said \u201cvested interest [sic] are warning Australia could face a technical recession if migration is cut\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cAustralians have been in a per-capita recession for years. Their lives have been getting worse because of migration. Canada<\/a> has shown living standards improve when migration is cut.\u201d<\/p>\n Graph showing Australia\u2019s stagnant living standards, with GDP per person in 2026 where it was three years ago<\/a><\/p>\n For those looking for international comparisons, Canada has long been a type of sister country to Australia \u2013 similar size, similar culture, similar economy.<\/p>\n And the North American nation is in the midst of a dramatic migration adjustment that has flattened population growth.<\/p>\n Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n Unlike Hanson, Canada\u2019s policymakers have not targeted a specific net overseas migration level<\/a>. Instead, they have rolled out a suite of policies to reduce the number of temporary migrants as a share of population from a peak of 7.6% in 2024, to 5%.<\/p>\n Canada is about halfway to this goal. The government has done this by reducing temporary arrivals, particularly international students, making it harder to extend stays and giving some temporary migrants permanency.<\/p>\n Graph showing a dramatic reduction in Canada\u2019s annual net international migration<\/a><\/p>\n Annual population growth has slowed from 3.1% in early 2024 to just 0.5% now.<\/p>\n So how well has Canada\u2019s economy coped? And what does their experience tell us about how Australia should respond to growing calls for a more hardline approach to migration?<\/p>\n \u2018Canada\u2019s economy is not broken. It is adjusting\u2019<\/p>\n In May, the CD Howe Institute, a leading Canadian thinktank, issued a report on the country\u2019s economy in a \u201clower immigration era\u201d.<\/p>\n The title was \u201cresetting expectations\u201d.<\/p>\n Modelling by the report\u2019s authors, Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi, estimated that employment in Canada could fall this year and the next.<\/p>\n Real GDP growth in 2026 may be no more than 0.5%, they forecast, and \u201clittle more\u201d than 1% on average in the long term.<\/p>\n Falling employment would normally be cause for alarm, but Drummond and Mahboubi say this is actually \u201cwhat a normally operating labour market delivers, given the demographic shifts underway\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cThese are not signs of a struggling economy,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n \u201cCanada\u2019s economy is not broken. It is adjusting. Understanding that adjustment is a precondition for sound policy in the years ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n The Canadian economy has been \u2018relatively resilient\u2019, experts say. Pictured: Vancouver. Photograph: Charles Mistral\/Alamy<\/p>\n Nathan Janzen, the assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, agrees with this assessment.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat the population shifts have done has changed how we need to interpret economic data.\u201d<\/p>\n The university sector has been hit particularly hard by the tighter migration rules. The government also provided exceptions to migrants working in areas of particular labour shortages, such as agriculture and the care economy.<\/p>\n But overall, Janzen says, \u201cthe Canadian economy has been relatively resilient\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cIf our population estimate numbers are right, we could have negative employment growth and still have falling unemployment. And the per capita economy looks like it\u2019s getting better.\u201d<\/p>\n
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