OTTAWA\u2014Let\u2019s get a little dystopian.<\/p>\n
There is a non-zero chance that United States President Donald Trump tries to cancel the mid-term elections, wherein 100 per cent of the House and one-third of the Senate are up for election and re-election.\u00a0<\/p>\n
First and foremost, understand the jeopardy here: if Democrats were to win majorities in the House and Senate (which polling suggests they will, but never underestimate the chances of the Dems fucking up an easy layup), Trump will be significantly curtailed in what hither to have seemed like unlimited powers.\u00a0<\/p>\n
No, Canada shouldn\u2019t count on tariff reprieves any time soon, or for the \u201cpresident\u201d to sound any less batshit crazy on a daily basis, but what Trump can spend, legislation he can pass, and appointments he can make will all be significantly impacted.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Beyond that\u2014because he and his enablers have aggressively done so with their own opponents over the last 20 months\u2014Team Trump is undoubtedly concerned about the reprisals they may face from a Democratic Congress. Impeachment by the House (again). Trial(s) in the Senate. Possibly (but unlikely) a vote to remove him from office followed by criminal prosecution. All are possible for himself and several others.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But more than anything, one presumes that Trump and his foul brood are fearful that the gravy train they\u2019ve been riding like a fat kid on the teacups grinds to a halt. Since just January of 2025, Trump and his family have increased their net worth by up to US$4-billion, according to an investigation by\u00a0The New Yorker<\/a>\u00a0(the BBC and several watchdog groups have come to similar conclusions).\u00a0<\/p>\n So, this is a big deal\u2014possibly an even bigger deal than losing the 2020 election where upon he unleashed a mob on Congress on Jan. 6,\u00a02021, to try and prevent the lawful transfer of power to Joe Biden. His wanton criminality\u2014and, therefore, his motivation to cheat\u2014has only increased since.<\/p>\n Trump has been clear since then, and ramped up his and his proxy\u2019s rhetoric in recent months that he will assert that elections in America are not \u201cfair\u201d\u2014his term for anything he doesn\u2019t like. And that he believes results that aren\u2019t \u201cfair\u201d should be \u2026 dismissed? Ignored? Coloured over with a Sharpie? Unclear, but unsettling to say the least.<\/p>\n In a recent\u00a0Senate Judiciary Committee appearance<\/a>, fired special prosecutor Jack Smith, however, was clear that his investigation \u201cdeveloped proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in serious crimes against our nation,\u201d including around the events of Jan. 6, 2021.\u00a0<\/p>\n And, as recently as last week, Peter Navarro\u2014one of Trump\u2019s top advisers, an architect of his tariff-based trade twattery and a\u00a0former federal inmate<\/a>\u2014was in the media attacking Canadians in Washington for supposedly working to influence the midterms. He suggested Canadians on K Street (an eponym for Washington lobbyists) should \u201cget the hell out of our country,\u201d and that if these same Canadians \u201cinterfere\u201d in the midterms that Canada \u201cwill pay even more dearly.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Friendly chap.\u00a0<\/p>\n Now, the inclination of most sensible people is to ignore most of what Trump and his ilk say. Let\u2019s them sleep better at night.\u00a0<\/p>\n But that has been the fatal mistake that has allowed this buffoon to be elected to the White House twice. While Trump is clearly more often than not lying about any number of things, when he says horrible or crazy shit, he is almost always telling on himself.\u00a0<\/p>\n So, as Canadians, let\u2019s take him at his word this time: let\u2019s say that a month from now it is clear even to his Adderall-addled, syphilitic mind that he\u2019s going to lose the midterms\u2014bigly. To misquote Sean Connery in\u00a0The Untouchables, what is he prepared to do?<\/p>\n Why not blame Canada?<\/p>\n Navarro has telegraphed it. Trump (supposedly) blew up an earlier trade deal because Ontario Premier Doug Ford\u2019s Ronald Reagan ads<\/a>\u00a0ran during the World Series. The MAGA base remains ignorant enough to believe that his tariffs are about bringing jobs home to America (and not just lining the pockets of his plutocrat pals).\u00a0<\/p>\n And so, like Albania in the brilliant political film\u00a0Wag the Dog, Americans might be told that Canada is to blame for their failing democracy.\u00a0<\/p>\n What happens then? Well, nothing good.\u00a0<\/p>\n Let\u2019s suppose Trump declares martial law and federalizes the National Guard in a series of swing states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Texas, and Alaska.\u00a0<\/p>\n Six of those share a border with Canada.\u00a0<\/p>\n Would Pete Hegseth\u2019s Department of War actually order \u201clittle green men\u201d to line up along the Canada-U.S. border? Hegseth has just announced he\u2019s cutting 20 per cent of the top brass at the Pentagon\u2014twice the number he already announced. Seems safe to assume it won\u2019t be the most compliant, most likely to accept and act on illegal orders that go.\u00a0<\/p>\n So maybe 10th\u00a0Mountain Division rolls out of Fort Drum, N.Y., and heads to bridges across the St. Lawrence from Prescott, the Thousand Islands, and Cornwall. Where they sit. Menacingly.\u00a0<\/p>\n What would Canada do?\u00a0<\/p>\n While Prime Minister Mark Carney was mocked for acknowledging that it has been a topic of at least thought if not discussion in recent months, Canada has had a \u201cplan\u201d for what to do if the U.S. were to invade since at least 1920. In fact, one of the primary drivers of Confederation in 1867 was the very real prospect of a freshly victorious Union Army turn north to \u201cfinish\u201d their continental conquest.\u00a0<\/p>\n That\u2019s not to say it was a good plan. Or one likely to succeed. But it certainly isn\u2019t a new idea.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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What is new\u2014and no doubt a very real part of all the discussions about European Union associate membership, opening a consulate in Greenland (Denmark), both Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron visiting St. Pierre et Miquelon, and countless trips across the Atlantic\u2014is that there is now a reasonable chance that NATO members in Europe understand we can all hang together or we will most certainly hang separately.\u00a0<\/p>\n What does that mean? It means that there is now\u2014for the first time in Canada\u2019s history\u2014a realistic possibility that in the event of an American military action towards us we could reasonably count on the assistance of our other NATO allies. German troops. British ships. Maybe even French nuclear deterrent (as they have just offered to Finland<\/a>).\u00a0<\/p>\n No one wants a war. Especially with our closest neighbour. Especially when that neighbour has the largest military on Earth\u2014even if they have\u00a0run out of many of their most sophisticated weapons<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0repeatedly winning in Iran<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n But as things continue to get more and more dangerous, surreal, and downright nutty, of course the PM is thinking about \u201cwhat ifs\u201d\u2014it would be a dereliction for him not to.\u00a0<\/p>\n And while it would still be profoundly unpleasant, thanks to the work the government has done rebuilding alliances, partnerships, and our own defence industrial capacity, I\u2019m willing to bet today\u2019s plan for the \u201cunimaginable\u201d is better than the one he inherited.\u00a0<\/p>\n But here\u2019s hoping things on the Canada-U.S. file get back to boring nower than later.<\/p>\n Jamie Carroll is a former national director of the Liberal Party of Canada, and now a\u00a0consultant<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0entrepreneur<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0
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