![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/table-Oct-6-2026.png\")
<\/p>\nThe Bottom Line:<\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s trade balance rose sharply to a $4.2 billion surplus in August, boosted by higher energy prices and a surge in exports ahead of new U.S. tariffs imposed late\u00a0in the month.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The monthly trade data is notoriously volatile, but looking ahead to September, energy prices continued to move higher with crude oil prices up another 16%. And global shortages of refined products are also driving Canadian energy exports higher\u2014refinedproduct exports (like diesel) were up 13% excluding price impacts in August.<\/p>\n
But some U.S. buyers clearly rushed to import ahead of new tariffs imposed on August 22nd on another ~5% of U.S. imports from Canada\u2014and that boost will reverse in September.\u00a0<\/p>\n
By our count, Canadian exports to the U.S. of products targeted with the new 50% tariffs were up 40% year-over-year in August.\u00a0From separately-reported U.S. data, the U.S. average effective tariff rate from Canada edged up just slightly to 3.2% from 2.8% in\u00a0July,\u00a0 suggesting the bulk of those imports were ahead of the new tariffs imposed late in the month.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Still, exports to the U.S. excluding tariffed products, and energy products rose ~16% by our count year-over-year.\u00a0 Shipments to non-U.S. destinations rose 40% year-over-year compared to a 24% increase in sales to the United States.\u00a0<\/p>\n
And domestic demand continues to show signs of life\u2014import volumes (excluding price impacts) fell by 1.7% but imports of machinery and equipment (a key indicator of business investment) and consumer goods (an indicator of consumer demand) both rose.\u00a0<\/p>\n
We continue to expect the new tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration will have a significant impact on directly targeted sectors but with more than 80% of Canadianexports to the U.S. still maintaining duty free access under CUSMA we expect limited spillover to the broader economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n
We remain cautiously optimistic that the economy will continue to gradually improve on a per-person and per-worker basis.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The details:<\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s merchandise trade surplus widened to $4.2 billion in August\u2014the largest surplus since May 2022.<\/p>\n
Energy exports rose 4.7%\u2014part tied to an increase in prices but also higher export volumes, including of refined petroleum products like diesel due to global shortages.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Non-energy exports also increased\u2014led by a surge in exports of products targeted by new U.S. tariffs beginning August 22.\u00a0<\/p>\n
By our count, export to the U.S. of products targeted with new U.S. tariffs were up 40% year-over-year compared to a 16% increase in ex-energy exports of other products shipped to the U.S. Exports of alcoholic beverages (featured prominently on the U.S. tariff\u00a0list) jumped 27.6% in August from July.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Metal and non-metallic mineral products and aircraft exports posted the largest offsetting declines in export volumes.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Overall imports fell 1.7%, but largely reflecting sharp declines in (the exceptionally volatile) metal ore and non-metallic mineral product shipments that followed large gains in July.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Indicators of domestic demand remained relatively resilient.\u00a0 Imports volumes (excluding price changes) of industrial and electronic equipment jumped 7.5% and 2.8%, respectively, from July. And imports of consumer goods rose 1.8%<\/p>\n
From separately reported U.S. trade data this morning, the average effective U.S. tariff rate on imports from Canada was 3.2%, little changed from 2.8% in July. That measure will likely increase in September with new tariffs on another 5% of U.S. imports from Canada in effect, although the reality is the 50% tariff rate imposed in September (expanded to outright bans for some products at the end of that month) mean that a large share of those products will simply not be traded in September.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
About the author:<\/p>\n
Nathan Janzen\u00a0is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Bottom Line: Canada\u2019s trade balance rose sharply to a $4.2 billion surplus in August, boosted by higher…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":922987,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[49,48,46,44,1215],"class_list":["post-922986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-news","tag-trade"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/922986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=922986"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/922986\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/922987"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=922986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=922986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=922986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}