It was a good Week 4. Not a great Week 4, but a good one.<\/p>\n
We went 3-2 on best bets, nailing both game picks. The Cowboys<\/a> beat the Texans<\/a> as slight road underdogs, and the Jaguars<\/a>, also slight road underdogs, beat the Bengals<\/a>. Those were two bold calls, and both games came down to the final possession, but I was glad to be on the right side. Sometimes you gotta be bold. We also cashed in on Kirk Cousins<\/a> 1+ interception, and that one also came down to, quite literally, the Raiders<\/a>‘ final offensive play. Better late than never!<\/p>\n My two misses were frustrating ones. I pegged Josh Downs<\/a> to record 5+ receptions and 50+ yards against the struggling Commanders<\/a> secondary. Neither happened as Daniel Jones<\/a> continued his season-long turnover woes with a fumble and an interception. When Washington had to turn to third-string quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis<\/a>, the Colts<\/a> took control and barely had to throw the ball. Furthermore, we missed on Aaron Jones<\/a> Sr. 50+ rushing yards and anytime touchdown scorer. He ran for 94 yards but didn’t find the end zone. In fact, the Vikings<\/a>‘ offense has only had one touchdown over the past three weeks. I’m thinking we’ve gotta stay away from any positive Minnesota offensive production, at least for another week or two.<\/p>\n I’ll keep saying it: The more we learn, the better we should do. That played out with our best week yet. Let’s keep that trajectory.<\/p>\n As always, all betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings<\/a> Sportsbook.<\/p>\n Texans cover (-7.5) at Titans (-110)<\/p>\n You might think that the Titans<\/a> held up OK against the Ravens<\/a> last week, only losing 24-18. That wouldn’t be the case. It was 24-7 at halftime, and only a Lamar Jackson<\/a> injury prevented this one from being a complete laugher. The Titans haven’t lost by multiple possessions once — back in Week 1 — so that’s another reason this line is where it is.<\/p>\n But I very much believe we’re going to see a Texans blowout here. The Texans are 0-4. DeMeco Ryans<\/a> took defensive play-calling duties back<\/a> from Matt Burke this week, citing the need for better communication; the Texans are 28th in explosive play rate allowed. Even if the move doesn’t improve things immediately, the Titans (26th in explosive play rate) aren’t equipped to exploit that weakness.<\/p>\n Moreover, C.J. Stroud<\/a> is playing really well, even if it’s being overshadowed by the winless record. He’s ninth in yards per attempt and 11th in success rate plus explosive play rate. If you only took his numbers when Nico Collins<\/a> is on the field, those ranks would be second and third, respectively. He hasn’t thrown an interception this season either.<\/p>\n All of this is to say I expect a big Texans win.<\/p>\n Bears ML at Packers (-135)<\/p>\n The Packers<\/a> cannot stop the run. The Bears<\/a> lead the NFL<\/a> in rushing yards. Is that a good place to start for why I’m rolling with the Bears? I’d say yes.<\/p>\n There are other things working in the Bears’ favor. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is getting the most out of his group; the Bears lead the NFL in sack rate, and the Bears have the second-lowest missed tackle rate in the league. (The Packers have the fourth-highest rate, for what it’s worth.) The Chicago defense’s biggest weakness is its run defense, but the Packers have not been able to run the ball consistently whatsoever.<\/p>\n Jordan Love<\/a> could hit some big plays over the top to ruin this pick. The Bears are giving up a lot of big plays. But I also think they can get a turnover or two — something they did well last year — and the offense can control this game on the ground. No Edgerrin Cooper<\/a> for the Packers will loom large, too.<\/p>\n Drake Maye 30+ rushing yards (-129)<\/p>\n Only Lamar Jackson (144) has more rushing yards than Drake Maye<\/a> (136) this season among quarterbacks, and the Patriots<\/a> signal caller is coming off a 54-yard day on the ground against the Bills. He’s surpassed 30+ yards in two of four games this year, and this should be an enticing matchup to make it three out of five.<\/p>\n The Raiders have allowed 77 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, the ninth-most in the NFL, and that’s on 6.4 yards per carry, the sixth-highest. They allowed Malik Willis<\/a> to run for 39 yards in Week 1 and a 36-yard scramble by Tyler Shough<\/a> in Week 3. Maye is averaging nearly six carries per game. The Raiders should be able to score enough against a banged-up New England defense to force the Patriots’ offense to keep its foot on the gas pedal. That means Maye dropbacks, which means more opportunities to run.<\/p>\n Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-105)<\/p>\n Only the Cardinals<\/a> have given up more touchdown passes to wide receivers than the Bills<\/a> through four weeks. After dominating with Puka Nacua<\/a> out in Weeks 2 and 3, Adams had a tough Week 4 against the Eagles<\/a> in the rain. But Adams and the Rams<\/a> are back in sunny Los Angeles this weekend; Adams has scored eight touchdowns in eight career home games with the Rams, and the Bills’ secondary is not exactly in great shape, especially with Christian Benford<\/a> dealing with a toe injury.<\/p>\n Jacoby Brissett 2+ passing touchdowns AND 1+ interceptions (+230)<\/p>\n These parlays — I include at least one every week — haven’t been hitting yet, but I really like this one and the potential payout, too. Jacoby Brissett<\/a> threw two touchdowns and three interceptions last week. But it gets even better.<\/p>\n Jacoby Brissett has thrown multiple touchdowns and at least one interception in six of his last 10 starts!<\/p>\n This is who he is as a player. He’s probably going to give you some good counting numbers. The Cardinals are constantly playing catch-up, and Brissett will do his darndest to keep up: He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in eight of his last 10 starts.<\/p>\n