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<\/p>\nWith Vancouver\u2019s municipal election just over a week away, a new poll suggests a tight race for mayor, with Green Party candidate Pete Fry holding a one-point lead over incumbent Ken Sim among decided voters.<\/p>\n
The Canada Pulse Insights poll, done exclusively for CityNews and OMNI TV, puts Fry at 28 per cent and Sim at 27 per cent, within the poll\u2019s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.<\/p>\n
Vancouver Liberal candidate Kareem Allam trails at 19 per cent.<\/p>\n
Among decided voters who say they will definitely vote or have already cast a ballot, Fry leads Sim by the same narrow margin, 29 per cent to 28 per cent.<\/p>\n
TEAM for a Livable Vancouver candidate Colleen Hardwick sits at 13 per cent among decided voters, followed by Vote Vancouver\u2019s Rebecca Bligh at seven per cent and Bright Future Vancouver\u2019s Muhammad Ahmad at three per cent.<\/p>\n
John Wright, CEO of Canada Pulse Insights, calls this a \u201cvery fragmented field\u201d with a couple front-runners. He says it is \u201cvery apparent there are two different streams going head-to-head here.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cYou\u2019re going to have Pete Fry, who has a group of people who are more about the environment, more about ethics, more about accountability, more about affordability, more about housing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s a very distinct agenda.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the other hand, he says, those constituents supporting Sim are distinctly different.<\/p>\n
\u201cAffordability is the most important issue to them, but then it\u2019s crime, it\u2019s municipal taxes, it\u2019s accountability for the bottom line; they\u2019re more meat-and-potato issues,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThose tend to be factors where people will get out more so and vote. If they\u2019re older voters, they oftentimes own homes and they are taxpayers, and they need to get out and vote because they take it more seriously. So it\u2019s a different group of people.\u201d<\/p>\n
The poll says 10 per cent of all respondents are still undecided, even after voters who initially said they were unsure were asked whether they were leaning toward a candidate.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Wright says it is typical to have about 18 to 20 per cent who are undecided in any election campaign \u2014 with 10 per cent who just won\u2019t show up.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe eight per cent are looking at the personalities oftentimes, not just the issues, and they\u2019re trying to see if they can connect with somebody who can represent them, because what elections are about are about who can be your change agent,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can have half the population saying that they want to have change, but then the question is, what kind of change do you want?\u201d<\/p>\n
Undecided voters may be swayed over the next few days, he says.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re on the verge of Thanksgiving weekend. It\u2019ll make a difference where people can get together and talk about these things,\u201d he said. \u201cBut these people are watching very carefully those primary leaders in the field and will make their decision probably closer to Election Day.\u201d<\/p>\n
Wright says that overall, with such a tight race, the undecided voters can make a huge difference.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf they get out to vote, then they could either tip the scales a little bit or a whole lot, depending upon who gets out to vote,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo the critical thing with looking at these kind of numbers is that with it being so close with the top line candidates, it\u2019s about getting the vote out.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sim won the 2022 mayoral election with just over 50 per cent of the vote.<\/p>\n
Vancouverites head to the polls Oct. 17. Advance voting has taken place Oct. 3 and 7, with more scheduled for Oct. 10 and 13.<\/p>\n
The poll surveyed 500 adult Vancouver residents online between Sept. 28 and Oct. 6. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, according to Canada Pulse Insights.<\/p>\n
\t\tKeep it Factual<\/p>\n
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