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Neil PaineAug 24, 2025, 06:00 AM ET<\/p>\n
Close<\/a>Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.<\/p>\n Last year, we led this piece<\/a> about the most favorable landing spots for new NFL head coaches with a warning that “predicting the future in the NFL is often an exercise in futility.” Well, we clearly didn’t heed our own advice because we’re back here again a year later for another round of punishment.<\/p>\n Sure, the top-two situations we highlighted — the Seattle Seahawks<\/a> and Los Angeles Chargers<\/a> — went a combined 21-13, proof of their immediate payoff with new coaches Mike Macdonald and Jim Harbaugh. But the best record of all teams who got new coaches belonged to the Washington Commanders<\/a> under Dan Quinn, a situation we admittedly said had future potential that was “less tangible, and therefore less predictable” with rookie QB Jayden Daniels<\/a>. Of course, that was before Daniels went out and had possibly the greatest rookie season in NFL history<\/a>, taking Washington to the NFC title game in the process.<\/p>\n We can’t rule out another surprise run like that this season, especially since a number of the coaching hires are taking over jobs with either veteran QBs who have a history of success, or young ones still chasing their full potential. For that reason alone, any could prove more transformative than expected. Still, history shows that certain general patterns do tend to separate new coaches who succeed from those who don’t.<\/p>\n We set out to quantify what kind of situation each of 2025’s new head coaches is walking into. Specifically, we created a regression model that looks at last season’s team quality (using a mix of Elo ratings<\/a> and SRS ratings<\/a>); average roster age across offense, defense and special teams; and the age and track record of their quarterbacks (using a QB’s established level of Approximate Value<\/a>, or AV, per season from the past three years).<\/p>\n For all seven hires — Ben Johnson (Bears<\/a>), Pete Carroll (Raiders<\/a>), Mike Vrabel (Patriots<\/a>), Liam Coen (Jaguars<\/a>), Brian Schottenheimer (Cowboys<\/a>), Aaron Glenn (Jets<\/a>) and Kellen Moore (Saints<\/a>) — we fed the numbers into the model to estimate expected wins over the next five seasons.<\/p>\n Of course, each coach will change the trajectory of the franchise from here on out in his own way. Think of these rankings less as predictions and more as snapshots of the foundations they’re starting from.<\/p>\n So which sideline boss landed in the cushiest spot, and who drew the short straw?<\/p>\n Expected 5-year wins: 41.1 Key stat: Out of the 18 NFL teams who missed the playoffs last season, Dallas had the most total wins over the three seasons prior to that (36).<\/p>\n Fans and analysts might have disagreed with the choice<\/a> of Schottenheimer — a longtime coordinator who has never been a head coach before — as Mike McCarthy’s replacement. But there’s no question that he is walking into a situation ripe with possibilities. Dallas went 7-10 in 2024, even in a nightmare season with Prescott sidelined for more than half the schedule. Plus, they are just a season removed from a 12-5 campaign<\/a> in which they ranked fifth on defense and led the league in scoring, breaking 500 points for just the second time in franchise history<\/a>. Much depends on the availability of the team’s high-end talent, which is perpetually in question due to factors ranging from injuries (Prescott) to contract disputes (Micah Parsons<\/a>). Still, Schottenheimer inherits a team with a proven track record of winning ballgames, and it has the potential to make the playoffs again right away.<\/p>\n Expected 5-year wins: 40.7 Key stat: With an AV of 12 last year, Williams is coming off the best rookie season by a Bears QB ever<\/a>, topping the previous mark of 8 co-owned by Jim McMahon (1982) and Mitchell Trubisky<\/a> (2017).<\/p>\n Best of NFL Nation \u2022 Shilo Sanders handling the spotlight<\/a> Excitement is high in the Windy City ahead of the 2025 season and with good reason. Johnson was the genius playcaller behind the offensive success of the Detroit Lions<\/a> over the past three seasons, during which time they never ranked lower than fifth in scoring, and Jared Goff led all quarterbacks<\/a> with 13,642 passing yards. What he has to work with now is the talent of Williams now behind an improved offensive line, a solid set of pass-catching targets (led by D.J. Moore) and a defense that was top-10 by SRS last year that will now be coordinated by Dennis Allen. In addition, the Bears were the unluckiest team in the league<\/a> in terms of actual wins versus what we would expect from their point margin, so some improvement there is likely. The formula is still a bit conservative on them simply because Chicago has had exactly one winning season in the past 12 years, but the ingredients are there for Johnson to succeed where so many other Bears coaches have failed over the years.<\/p>\n Expected 5-year wins: 39.5 Key stat: No Jaguars head coach has a winning record with the franchise<\/a>, except for Tom Coughlin (at 68-60).<\/p>\n The latest product of the Sean McVay NFL coaching tree, Coen will go from helping the career rehabilitation of Baker Mayfield<\/a> in Tampa Bay to helping Lawrence salvage his reputation as a generational quarterback prospect in Jacksonville. There are worse tasks to be assigned to, and Lawrence was tied for the 16th-most AV by a QB ever at ages 23-24<\/a> before a miserable, injury-marred mess of a 2024 season. Despite the shine coming off a bit, his potential is far from squandered. And then there’s the game-changing ceiling of 2025’s No. 2 overall pick, Travis Hunter<\/a>, whose possible impact on both sides of the ball is nearly unparalleled in NFL history<\/a>. You could have made hay betting against new Jags coaches since Coughlin (see above), so nothing is guaranteed, but Coen has the key players who might finally turn the franchise around.<\/p>\n Expected 5-year wins: 39.2 Key stat: The Jets’ current playoff drought of 14 seasons is not only the longest active skid in the league<\/a>, but it’s also double the next-longest drought (Carolina and Atlanta at seven seasons apiece).<\/p>\n In addition to his r\u00e9sum\u00e9 leading the Lions to the league’s seventh-best scoring defense a year ago, Glenn was hired in part to bring a culture of toughness and professionalism to the Jets, in the mold of the Bill Parcells teams he played for in New York. If you squint, you can see the resemblance in what Glenn has to work with here, from the reclamation project quarterback (Fields as Vinny Testaverde) to the outspoken wide receiver (Garrett Wilson<\/a> as Keyshawn Johnson), the multipurpose running back (Breece Hall<\/a> as Curtis Martin), the star pass rusher (Quinnen Williams<\/a> as Mo Lewis) and the Pro Bowl cornerback (Sauce Gardner<\/a> as Glenn himself). OK, fine, so maybe that’s all a bit of a stretch — but the point is that Glenn has the blueprint for a turnaround, if not the full foundation.<\/p>\n Expected 5-year wins: 39.0 Key stat: Carroll has finished below .500 just four times in his 18-year NFL coaching career. The Raiders have finished above .500 just twice in the past 22 years. Something’s gotta give!<\/p>\n Editor’s Picks 1 Related<\/p>\n The Raiders are an interesting case here, because Las Vegas had one of the 10 youngest rosters in the league last season, with all but two of their 13 best players by AV<\/a> sitting under age 30 — highlighted by 22-year-old tight end Brock Bowers<\/a>, who ranked third in the NFL<\/a> with 1,194 receiving yards. Long-term projection models love young talent like that, but the signature Raider moves of the offseason<\/a> were bringing in a coach who will turn 74 in Week 2 and a quarterback who will turn 35 just before Week 6. Both have an established track record of success — including their work together in 2022-23 — and thus offer Vegas a chance to improve right away. But the need to find another new coach\/quarterback combo sooner rather than later is a drag on their projection.<\/p>\n Expected 5-year wins: 38.8 Key stat: New England has lost more games in the past five years (51) than in the 14 seasons prior to that (50).<\/p>\n Everyone agreed that Vrabel’s reunion with the Patriots made far too much sense to not happen. With it, there will be an infusion of that familiar Belichickian ethos of no-nonsense grit, plus the experience of a coach who went 54-45 with three playoff appearances in five years with the Tennessee Titans<\/a>. (And he brought back one of the great offensive coordinators in Josh McDaniels.) Still, expecting a true revival of the Pats’ dynasty is a bit premature. Maye’s passing efficiency remains a work in progress<\/a>, though his mobility propped up his QBR<\/a>. The team was one of just seven with an SRS rating<\/a> of -1.9 or worse on both sides of the ball, which was a sign of how much renovation was needed. However, an offseason spending spree<\/a> has locked them into a bunch of big bets right away — a risk when we consider how unpredictable the outcomes of offseason moves can be<\/a>. All of this explains why the Patriots rank lower than their fit with Vrabel would seem to indicate.<\/p>\n Expected 5-year wins: 38.0 Key stat: No matter whether Rattler or Tyler Shough<\/a> starts at QB, 2025 will feature the most inexperienced Saints primary QB by previous career AV since at least Steve Walsh — who had 2 previous AV — in 1990<\/a>.<\/p>\n The drop-off from the situations above to what Moore is inheriting in New Orleans is steep, reflecting a team that just posted its worst record since 2005 and then abruptly lost starting QB Derek Carr, who retired from the NFL<\/a>. (Safety Tyrann Mathieu followed him into retirement<\/a> in July.) What’s left is a full-scale rebuild, with only Cam Jordan, Demario Davis<\/a>, Alvin Kamara<\/a>, Carl Granderson<\/a>, Davon Godchaux<\/a> and Brandin Cooks<\/a> offering proven production from their careers or recent seasons. At 36, Moore is the league’s youngest head coach<\/a> — which lines up with the long-term timetable for New Orleans to contend again, if he can endure the losses likely to pile up in the meantime.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Neil PaineAug 24, 2025, 06:00 AM ET CloseNeil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93426,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[49,48,514,82],"class_list":["post-93425","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-nfl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93425","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93425"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93425\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93425"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93425"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93425"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/_end_rule.png\")
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Starting QB: Dak Prescott<\/a> (9.8 weighted AV per season; age 32)
2024 Elo: 19th | Offense: 21st | Defense: 30th
2024 average age: 26.7 (18th youngest)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1756035370_103_chi.png&h=110&w=110.png\")
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Starting QB: Caleb Williams<\/a> (9.0 weighted AV per season; age 24)
2024 Elo: 24th | Offense: 29th | Defense: 9th
2024 average age: 26.4 (10th youngest)<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/r1535193_1296x729_16-9.jpg\")
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\u2022 Purdy expectations rise after big payday<\/a>
\u2022 ISU WR rookie duo bonding with Texans<\/a>
\u2022 Bills linemen remark on suspensions<\/a>
\u2022 Bengals ready, despite few changes<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1756035370_821_jax.png&h=110&w=110.png\")
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Starting QB: Trevor Lawrence<\/a> (9.2 weighted AV per season; age 26)
2024 Elo: 26th | Offense: 27th | Defense: 28th
2024 average age: 25.8 (2nd youngest)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1756035371_461_nyj.png&h=110&w=110.png\")
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Starting QB: Justin Fields<\/a> (9.1 weighted AV per season; age 26)
2024 Elo: 22nd | Offense: 23rd | Defense: 21st
2024 average age: 27.7 (31st youngest)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1756035371_755_lv.png&h=110&w=110.png\")
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Starting QB: Geno Smith<\/a> (12.3 weighted AV per season; age 35)
2024 Elo: 27th | Offense: 26th | Defense: 26th
2024 average age: 26.4 (9th youngest)<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1756035371_877_preseason_power_rankings_1296x1296.png&w=130&h=130&scale=crop&location=center.png\")
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Starting QB: Drake Maye<\/a> (6.0 weighted AV per season; age 23)
2024 Elo: 28th | Offense: 30th | Defense: 22nd
2024 average age: 26.4 (8th youngest)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1756035372_578_no.png&h=110&w=110.png\")
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Starting QB: Spencer Rattler<\/a> (1.5 weighted AV per season; age 25)
2024 Elo: 25th | Offense: 25th | Defense: 18th
2024 average age: 27.6 (27th youngest)<\/p>\n