{"id":938278,"date":"2026-10-19T01:58:11","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T01:58:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/938278\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T01:58:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T01:58:11","slug":"alberta-independence-referendum-will-separatists-survive-a-loss-elections-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/938278\/","title":{"rendered":"Alberta independence referendum: Will separatists survive a loss? | Elections News"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cory Morgan has spent more than 25 years fighting for Canada\u2019s oil-rich province of Alberta to become an independent country. On Monday, Albertans will head to the polls to vote on the issue for the very first time. But even if the answer is no, Morgan said he\u2019s in it for the long haul.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would respect the will of the voters,\u201d he told Al Jazeera. \u201cIf they\u2019ve decided it\u2019s not time to go that route yet, then so be it. But that doesn\u2019t mean I\u2019ll stop.\u201d<\/p>\n

Recommended Stories list of 4 itemsend of list<\/p>\n

Morgan, the founder of the advocacy organisation Pathway to Independence, is among a group of longtime separatists who have managed to push what was once a fringe idea onto the ballot.<\/p>\n

Monday\u2019s provincial referendum asks Alberta residents to weigh whether they would like to pursue a binding resolution in the future on the question of independence.<\/p>\n

Polls indicate the pro-independence side has little chance of succeeding, with four of five people in the province saying they want Alberta to remain a part of Canada. But Morgan\u2019s focus is on the one in five who don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s not a movement that\u2019s leaving,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

What the referendum will mean for the separatist movement and for Canada as a whole, however, is a more complicated question.<\/p>\n

What exactly are Albertans voting on?<\/p>\n

Monday\u2019s ballot gives Albertans two options: to remain part of Canada or begin the legal process for holding a future referendum on separation.<\/p>\n

A vote in favour of the second option doesn\u2019t mean Alberta immediately becomes an independent country.<\/p>\n

Any province that tries to secede would first have to go through complex negotiations with the federal government in Ottawa, other provinces and Indigenous peoples who live in and around Alberta.<\/p>\n

Some separatist organisers have been using that distinction to encourage people to vote for the referendum \u2014 even if they don\u2019t necessarily want independence.<\/p>\n

\u201cStrategic separatists and their leaders have been using that ambiguity, that lower-bar threshold, to entice folks to vote not to leave, but rather to send Ottawa a message that Albertans need to be heard,\u201d said Jared Wesley, a political science professor at the University of Alberta.<\/p>\n

He told Al Jazeera that the message may be resonating with some voters.<\/p>\n

Data collected by Viewpoint Alberta, a University of Alberta-based research initiative, suggests that two-thirds of voters who support the referendum say they\u2019re doing so for strategic reasons, to send a message to Ottawa.<\/p>\n

These are people Morgan calls \u201creluctant separatists\u201d, people who are \u201cat the end of their rope\u201d and simply want Ottawa to pay attention.<\/p>\n

But Prime Minister Mark Carney<\/a> has warned Albertans against this strategy.<\/p>\n

\u201cDon\u2019t be fooled by the idea you can \u2018send a message\u2019 with your vote,\u201d he told<\/a> a pro-Canada rally in Calgary on Thursday. \u201cThis is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"CanadianCanadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks at a rally hosted by the advocacy group Forever Canadian at the Edmonton Expo Center in Edmonton, Alberta, on Friday [AFP]What\u2019s driving Alberta\u2019s separatist movement?<\/p>\n

Monday\u2019s referendum has been decades in the making. Separatists have long felt that Alberta, home to the world\u2019s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, sends too much money to Ottawa, subsidising the rest of the country while receiving little in return.<\/p>\n

They also take issue with federal energy policies that they feel limit the potential of the province\u2019s oil industry.<\/p>\n

For Morgan, the resentment stretches back to the 1980s when the National Energy Program was introduced by the government of Pierre Trudeau, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s father.<\/p>\n

The policy\u00a0used price controls, taxes and ownership rules to keep Canadian energy affordable while directing more of Alberta\u2019s revenues to Ottawa.<\/p>\n

It has since become a central symbol of \u201cWestern alienation\u201d, a term used to describe the sense of disenfranchisement felt among Canada\u2019s westernmost provinces.<\/p>\n

Those tensions resurfaced decades later under Justin Trudeau, whose term began in 2015. His climate policies, including a national carbon tax and a limit on emissions, angered Alberta\u2019s oil sector.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve been fighting about the same things for 50 years,\u201d said Morgan.<\/p>\n

Then came the COVID-19 pandemic. Experts say demonstrations against health restrictions mobilised a new generation of conservative activists, breathing new life into Alberta\u2019s separatist movement.<\/p>\n

Trudeau ultimately resigned as Liberal Party leader and prime minister in 2025, amid sinking poll numbers. Carney was elected his replacement.<\/p>\n

Last year, under growing pressure from separatist groups, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith\u2019s government made it easier to start referendums, helping bring the question of Alberta\u2019s independence onto the political agenda.<\/p>\n

For Wesley, the moment is less about growing public support for independence and more about pressure from within Smith\u2019s governing United Conservative Party, whose members show higher support for separation than Albertans generally.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re having a referendum because Danielle Smith wants us to have a referendum,\u201d Wesley said. \u201cShe is looking to solve internal party matters by throwing a question to the broader public.\u201d<\/p>\n

Though she called Monday\u2019s referendum, Smith has said she opposes the independence effort, and on October 14, she announced she had voted against seceding.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn my view, now is not the time to give up hope in our country, not when we have fought so long and come so far,\u201d Smith said in a social media video, explaining her vote.<\/p>\n

\"AlbertaAlberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the Canada Strong and Free conference in Calgary, Alberta, on Friday [Ahmed Zakot\/Reuters]Could defeat make the movement stronger?<\/p>\n

Smith\u2019s political gamble has drawn comparisons<\/a> with the 2016 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom, including from Carney.<\/p>\n

At the time, then-UK Prime Minister David Cameron called a vote over whether the country should leave the European Union, in hopes of settling a debate dividing his own Conservative Party.<\/p>\n

Voters ultimately chose to leave the bloc, triggering years of political unrest.<\/p>\n

But Ian Cooper, a political scientist who grew up in Alberta and now lives in Ireland, says a more useful comparison might be a different UK referendum in 1975, when British voters chose overwhelmingly to stay in what was then known as the European Economic Community.<\/p>\n

That vote, he said, did little to deter those who wanted the country out.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe activists who were in favour of Brexit \u2014 this is before anybody called it Brexit \u2014 they really played the long game,\u201d he said. \u201cIt took them 25 years, but they finally achieved it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cooper suspects that, even if Alberta separation is roundly defeated, separatists could take a similar approach, pursuing the issue over the long term to gain prominence and support.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy impression is that they really are true believers, and it\u2019s really ideologically driven,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

If Monday\u2019s separatist vote fails, Morgan said separatists would need to take a hard look at why they had fallen short and work towards making a stronger case for independence in the future.<\/p>\n

He does not believe the underlying grievances can be resolved by working within the Canadian system or by electing a more sympathetic federal government.<\/p>\n

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, acknowledged at Thursday\u2019s rally that \u201cthe frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real\u201d. He added that Ottawa had made people in the province feel \u201clike our resources weren\u2019t our own\u201d.<\/p>\n

The prime minister has tried, amid an ongoing trade war with the United States, to improve relations with Alberta, including through commitments to building a new pipeline to Canada\u2019s west coast and major infrastructure projects.<\/p>\n

Morgan admits that, for those whose goal is simply to get more leverage in Ottawa, \u201cit\u2019s pretty clear the movement has been effective\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen more love from a federal prime minister in the last year than we\u2019ve seen in the last 10,\u201d Morgan said. \u201cThe problem though, when it comes to stubborn independence folks like me, is nothing has changed in the system.\u201d<\/p>\n

Prime ministers come and go, he added. \u201cWe\u2019re just one election away from another hostile one.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"SeparatistSeparatist organiser Cory Morgan speaks to Alberta separatist supporters at a meeting by Let\u2019s Talk Alberta in Calgary, Alberta, on October 13, 2026 [Todd Korol\/Reuters]Why the other referendum questions matter<\/p>\n

But the referendum could also offer an opportunity to challenge the premise that Alberta\u2019s grievances cannot be addressed within Canada.<\/p>\n

The independence question is just one of 10 on Monday\u2019s ballot. Other proposals include restricting temporary residents\u2019 access to healthcare and education, as well as allowing Alberta to choose its own judges.<\/p>\n

Smith has encouraged Albertans to vote in favour of the nine other proposals, arguing that they will give her more negotiating power in Ottawa.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany Albertans I speak with tell me they want to send Ottawa a message, and I would suggest the best way to do that is to give us a strong mandate on the other nine questions,\u201d she said on social media.<\/p>\n

If Albertans back those proposals but Ottawa refuses to make concessions, Cooper, the political scientist, said the movement would have fresh ammunition to argue that meaningful change within the current system is impossible.<\/p>\n

\u201cBuried in the nine other questions are the seeds for a future referendum,\u201d Cooper added.<\/p>\n

What could keep the movement alive?<\/p>\n

Not everyone agrees, however, on whether the separatists can emerge from the vote as a united force.<\/p>\n

Wesley explained that people have been drawn to the separatist cause for a variety of reasons.<\/p>\n

If there\u2019s a sense that independence is not a realistic prospect, there may be little to keep that group of activists together, he said. They could turn their attention to other conservative issues, such as immigration.<\/p>\n

Other experts question whether Alberta\u2019s separatist movement, which is united more by economic grievances than by a shared cultural identity, can endure the way Quebec\u2019s has.<\/p>\n

Just two weeks ago, the largely French-speaking province elected the separatist Party Quebecois, which has promised a third referendum on independence after Trump leaves office.<\/p>\n

Morgan, however, argues that Alberta does have a distinct culture, shaped by generations of people who have moved to the province in search of prosperity.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe type of person drawn to do that is often an individualistic type of person,\u201d he said. \u201cThey want the opportunity to go out and succeed or fail on their own.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd that builds a kind of a distinct culture on its own, even if it\u2019s not a long-built one, as you would see in a distinct area like Quebec with a linguistic difference or in another country.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even if Albertans reject separation, he believes the movement has succeeded in forcing Ottawa to take the province\u2019s frustrations more seriously.<\/p>\n

\u201cHopefully some people understand that eventually something has to give,\u201d he said. \u201cSo whatever the results are \u2026 I do hope, at the very least, they\u2019ve served as a wake-up call to a lot of people.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Cory Morgan has spent more than 25 years fighting for Canada\u2019s oil-rich province of Alberta to become an…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":938279,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[49,48,3411,299,33828,44,32557,714,1690],"class_list":["post-938278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-elections","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-independence","tag-news","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-politics","tag-us-canada"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=938278"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938278\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/938279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=938278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=938278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=938278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}