EDMONTON, Alberta — Voters in Canada\u2019s oil-rich Alberta province will decide Monday whether to begin a process that could lead to independence, testing national unity as U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state have rallied Canadians around their country.<\/p>\n
Monday\u2019s vote is not a direct referendum on independence<\/a>. Alberta, home to most of Canada\u2019s proven oil reserves \u2014 the fourth largest in the world \u2014 will decide whether to remain a province or begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.<\/p>\n More than 1.35 million Albertans, or 43% of eligible voters, cast advance or special ballots ahead of Monday\u2019s referendum, far exceeding the 810,000 who voted early in the 2023 provincial election.<\/p>\n But even if Albertans reject the proposal, separatist leaders say the movement that has transformed a fringe cause into a force in provincial politics is not going away.<\/p>\n Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney urged Albertans<\/a> not to take the outcome for granted and asked for a decisive result as he wrapped up two days of campaigning in his home province. <\/p>\n \u201cVote like Canada\u2019s future depends on it because it does,\u201d Carney told a pro-Canada rally Friday in Edmonton, where he grew up.<\/p>\n The vote also comes as Alberta reels from a deadly weekend fire<\/a> at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright that killed four service members and injured 39 people, including 19 critically, during military training. Carney called it one of the worst peacetime tragedies for Canada\u2019s military on domestic soil and ordered flags lowered to half-staff nationwide.<\/p>\n Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the referendum despite opposing independence, recently cited a poll showing just 22% support for separation, a figure she said was still too high.<\/p>\n The biggest cheers Carney received at rallies in Calgary and Edmonton came when he spoke about diversifying Canada\u2019s trade away from the United States. Crowds erupted in applause at both events, underscoring how Trump\u2019s trade war and annexation threats have fueled Canadian nationalism even in traditionally conservative Alberta.<\/p>\n Carney has emerged as an unusually popular figure in conservative Alberta, where Liberal prime ministers have long faced resentment over federal energy policies.<\/p>\n Carney has taken a more energy-friendly approach, backing a proposed oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast and joining Smith in a show of unity against independence.<\/p>\n Carney warned that the referendum comes at the \u201cworst possible time\u201d and urged Albertans not to use their votes merely to send Ottawa a message.<\/p>\n Smith, who frequently clashed with Justin Trudeau, praised Carney for improving relations.<\/p>\n \u201cI think what we can agree on is that we have had some real change in the last 18 months,\u201d she said Friday.<\/p>\n Smith called a referendum she opposes, reflecting pressure from separatist activists within her governing United Conservative Party who helped bring her to power. Some of those activists helped oust former Premier Jason Kenney in 2022.<\/p>\n Kenney said separatism had traditionally been a fringe cause, with independence parties typically attracting only 1% or 2% of the vote. He said the pandemic mobilized activists<\/a> angry over public health restrictions and government authority.<\/p>\n